Want to see TSE:GFL full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
GFL Environmental
(TSX:GFL)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
C$67.00
▲(16.83% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
The score is driven primarily by steady underlying operating performance and strong operating cash flow, but held back by leverage and volatility/weakness in bottom-line results and free cash flow consistency. The latest earnings call was a clear positive due to raised 2026 guidance and strong pricing/margins, while valuation is the biggest negative given the very high P/E and low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Recurring, integrated model
Recurring collection fees and municipal relationships can support visibility across the revenue base, while owned disposal and processing assets let GFL retain economics across multiple service steps. This combination supports customer retention, route density, and more durable margins than a purely transactional model.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
The sizable debt load reduces financial flexibility and makes GFL more sensitive to interest costs, operating setbacks, and refinancing conditions. Leverage can also constrain capital allocation because more internally generated cash must support debt service rather than acquisitions, reinvestment, or shareholder returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring, integrated model
Recurring collection fees and municipal relationships can support visibility across the revenue base, while owned disposal and processing assets let GFL retain economics across multiple service steps. This combination supports customer retention, route density, and more durable margins than a purely transactional model.
Read all positive factors
GFL Environmental (GFL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$26.56B
Dividend Yield0.15%
Average Volume (3M)908.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.39
Revenue Growth-3.64%
EPS Growth87.49%
CountryCA
Employees15,500
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryWaste Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.64
Shares Outstanding424,203,670
10 Day Avg. Volume1,054,455
30 Day Avg. Volume908,820
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.98
Price to Sales (P/S)3.29
P/FCF Ratio57.10
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$77.45Price Target Upside35.04% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)0.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$8.05B
GFL Environmental Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GFL Environmental Inc. is a multifaceted environmental solutions provider operating across Canada and the United States. The company offers a diverse range of services, primarily focused on non-hazardous solid waste management, infrastructure and ...
How the Company Makes Money
GFL makes money primarily by charging customers recurring service fees for waste collection and environmental services, and by earning disposal and processing fees within its owned infrastructure network.
Key revenue streams include:
- Solid Wast...
GFL Environmental Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 23, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call painted a largely positive picture: strong revenue (16.3% YoY), healthy pricing (6%+), record/highest-ever Canadian margins (34%), raised full‑year guidance (adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow upgraded), robust adjusted free cash flow in Q2 ($237M), and active M&A execution with SECURE on track. Headwinds include a steep YoY rise in diesel (~+60%), C&D and special waste volumes down ~10% (driving a modest volume drag and mix headwind), some M&A-related margin/leverage pressure, and FX translation effects. Management emphasized operational leverage, successful cost intensity improvements, and the ability for pricing and commodity tailwinds to support the back half. On balance, the positives (growth, margins, guidance raise, cash flow, M&A progress) outweigh the manageable transitory headwinds (fuel, volumes, FX), resulting in a favorable outlook.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Revenue grew 16.3% year-over-year in Q2 (organic growth 6.4%). Price growth was 6.1% in the quarter and full-year pricing is now expected to finish above 6%, driving a materially stronger revenue outlook.
Negative Updates
Elevated Diesel Prices and Fuel Surcharge Lag
Direct diesel cost per unit increased nearly 60% YoY in Q2, causing margin pressure due to lag in the fuel surcharge mechanism and higher third-party transport costs. The surge in diesel contributed an approximate multi‑tens of basis point headwind to margins and produced a $5 million headwind to the Q2 guide from third-party fuel surcharges.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Revenue grew 16.3% year-over-year in Q2 (organic growth 6.4%). Price growth was 6.1% in the quarter and full-year pricing is now expected to finish above 6%, driving a materially stronger revenue outlook.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
GFL raised its full‑year 2026 guidance: revenue $7.52B, adjusted EBITDA $2.29B and adjusted free cash flow $900M (inclusive of $445M cash interest and $850M net CapEx), implying adjusted EBITDA growth of over 15% and nearly 20% growth in adjusted FCF versus 2025; full‑year pricing is now just over 6% with volumes expected to decline ~50 bps, adjusted EBITDA margin guided to 30.5% (up 10 bps vs prior guide; would be >31% absent elevated diesel), and a $10M incremental M&A contribution (total M&A now ~770 bps). Q3 is targeted at ~ $1.99B revenue, 31.2% adj. EBITDA margin and ~$235M adj. FCF (incl. $165M cash interest and ~$200M net CapEx). Recent quarterly metrics include Q2 revenue +16.3% (6.4% organic), Q2 price +6.1%, Q2 adj. EBITDA margin 30.4% (Canadian segment 34%, its highest ever), Q2 adj. FCF $237M, exit net leverage 3.9x, USD $750M bond issued swapped to ~4.5% CAD; SECURE could add ~6% to 2026 adj. EBITDA if closed in Q4, and management still expects to deploy an incremental $300M–$500M of M&A before year‑end.GFL Environmental Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.97B | 6.62B | 7.86B | 7.52B | 6.76B | 5.14B |
| Gross Profit | 1.39B | 1.37B | 1.46B | 1.26B | 823.40M | 498.80M |
| EBITDA | 1.82B | 2.14B | 1.22B | 2.33B | 1.63B | 1.09B |
| Net Income | -227.30M | 3.83B | -722.70M | 45.40M | -311.80M | -606.80M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 21.53B | 19.30B | 21.21B | 19.88B | 19.77B | 18.40B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 192.10M | 85.60M | 133.80M | 135.70M | 82.10M | 190.40M |
| Total Debt | 10.14B | 8.38B | 10.55B | 9.29B | 9.68B | 9.63B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.99B | 11.81B | 13.99B | 12.49B | 13.72B | 12.62B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.36B | 7.30B | 6.98B | 7.18B | 6.04B | 5.78B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 194.30M | 381.60M | 347.20M | -74.70M | 331.10M | 250.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.41B | 1.52B | 1.54B | 980.40M | 1.10B | 897.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.14B | 3.72B | -1.68B | -310.40M | -1.73B | -2.69B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.78B | -5.28B | 163.20M | -602.80M | 569.00M | 1.96B |
GFL Environmental Technical Analysis
Positive
57.35
Price Trends
59.52
Positive
56.90
Positive
56.49
Positive
Market Momentum
1.12
Negative
60.68
Neutral
72.40
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GFL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 57.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 61.18, below the 50-day MA of 59.52, and above the 200-day MA of 56.49, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:GFL.
GFL Environmental Risk Analysis
GFL Environmental disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GFL Environmental reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
GFL Environmental Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
TSE:GFL
GFL Environmental
60.91
-0.20
-0.33%
TSE:WCN
Waste Connections
251.38
18.65
8.01%
TSE:VTX
Vertex Resource Group Ltd.
0.21
-0.02
-6.67%
TSE:ANRG
Anaergia
1.92
-0.59
-23.51%
GFL Environmental Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
GFL Environmental Names Allen Gransch Chief Operating Officer Amid Leadership Realignment
Positive
Oct 1, 2026
GFL Environmental has appointed Allen Gransch as Chief Operating Officer, effective immediately, following his recent arrival as Executive Vice President via the acquisition of SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. Gransch brings nearly two decades of...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
GFL Environmental Sets Date for Q3 2026 Results and Investor Call
Neutral
Sep 24, 2026
GFL Environmental Inc., a leading North American diversified environmental services provider specializing in solid waste management, operates an extensive network of facilities across Canada and 19 U.S. states with a workforce exceeding 17,000 emp...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
GFL Environmental Closes SECURE Deal to Boost Scale and Financial Targets
Positive
Sep 1, 2026
GFL Environmental Inc., a major North American environmental services provider, has completed its acquisition of SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp., expanding its workforce by more than 2,000 employees and integrating SECURE’s management into...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.