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TC Energy (TSE:TRP)
TSX:TRP
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TC Energy (TRP) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:TRP

TC Energy

(TSX:TRP)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
C$78.00
▲(10.83% Upside)
TC Energy's strong earnings call and reasonable valuation are significant strengths, indicating robust future growth prospects. However, technical indicators show bearish momentum, and financial performance is tempered by high leverage. The attractive dividend yield adds to the stock's appeal, balancing the risks.
Positive Factors
Strategic Project Completions
The completion of major projects enhances TC Energy's infrastructure capabilities, supporting long-term revenue growth and market position.
Increased Natural Gas Demand
Rising natural gas demand supports sustained revenue growth for TC Energy's pipeline operations, reinforcing its market leadership.
Improved Project Returns
Higher project returns indicate effective capital allocation and enhance long-term profitability and shareholder value.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting TC Energy's ability to invest in future growth.
Decline in Revenue Growth
A decline in revenue growth may hinder TC Energy's ability to sustain long-term profitability and market competitiveness.
Lower Alberta Power Prices
Lower power prices in Alberta could reduce contributions from TC Energy's Power and Energy Solutions business, affecting overall earnings.

TC Energy (TRP) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

TC Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTC Energy Corporation (TRP) is a leading North American energy infrastructure company based in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. It primarily operates in the natural gas and liquids sectors, owning and managing a vast network of pipelines that transport natural gas, crude oil, and refined products across Canada and the United States. The company also has interests in power generation, with a portfolio that includes renewable energy projects. TC Energy is committed to providing safe, reliable, and efficient energy solutions to meet the growing demands of its customers.
How the Company Makes MoneyTC Energy generates revenue primarily through its regulated and non-regulated business segments. The regulated operations, which involve the transportation of natural gas and liquids, provide stable and predictable cash flows through long-term contracts with customers. This segment includes its extensive pipeline network, where it earns fees for transporting energy products. In addition to pipeline operations, TC Energy also generates revenue from its power generation portfolio, which includes both traditional and renewable energy sources. The company often engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to expand its infrastructure capabilities and enhance its service offerings. Factors contributing to TC Energy's earnings include demand for energy transportation, regulatory frameworks that support infrastructure development, and its ability to efficiently manage operational costs.

TC Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted TC Energy's strong financial performance, successful project completions, and increased forecasts for natural gas demand, outweighing the challenges posed by lower Alberta power prices and currency impacts. The company's strategic investments and sustainability efforts further emphasize a positive outlook.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
TC Energy delivered a 12% year-over-year increase in comparable EBITDA, with an increased 2025 outlook to $10.8 billion to $11 billion, representing an approximately 9% increase over 2024.
Columbia Gas System Settlement
Reached a settlement in principle with customers on the Columbia Gas system, resulting in a 26% increase in pre-filed FTS rates, underscoring demand and effective collaboration with stakeholders.
Completion of Major Projects
Approximately $5.8 billion of capacity projects were completed or placed into service, including Southeast Gateway and East Lateral XPress Project.
Increased Natural Gas Demand Forecast
North American natural gas demand is now forecast to grow by 45 Bcf per day by 2035, up from a prior forecast of 40 Bcf per day.
Improved Project Returns
The average unlevered after-tax IRR of sanctioned projects increased to approximately 12% in 2025, up from 8.5% a few years ago.
Bruce Power Investment
Bruce Power's availability improved to an expected average in the low 90s for 2025, with investments expected to nearly double equity income by 2035.
Sustainability Achievements
TC Energy reduced absolute methane emissions by 12% over the last 5 years while increasing throughput by 15%.
Negative Updates
Lower Alberta Power Prices
Alberta power prices continued to average approximately $40 per megawatt hour in the second quarter, impacting contributions from the Power and Energy Solutions business.
Strengthening Peso Impact
Lower equity earnings from Sur de Texas due to the strengthening peso and higher income tax expense.
Company Guidance
During TC Energy's second-quarter 2025 conference call, the company provided robust guidance metrics, demonstrating strong performance and future growth prospects. The company reported a 12% year-over-year increase in comparable EBITDA for the second quarter and raised its 2025 comparable EBITDA outlook to between $10.8 billion and $11 billion, marking an approximate 9% increase over 2024. This growth is supported by a 26% increase in pre-filed FTS rates on the Columbia Gas system and the completion or activation of around $5.8 billion in capacity projects. TC Energy expects to place about $8.5 billion of assets into service in 2025, with a focus on brownfield expansions. The fundamentals of their business remain strong, with North American natural gas demand forecasted to grow by 45 Bcf per day by 2035. Their financial outlook anticipates further deleveraging to about 4.75x by 2026, with a projected EBITDA growth rate of 5% to 7% over three years.

TC Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
TC Energy demonstrates strong profitability and operational efficiency with robust EBIT and EBITDA margins. However, the high leverage indicated by the debt-to-equity ratio poses a potential risk. The company shows promising cash flow growth, supporting its financial stability, but needs to focus on revenue growth and debt management.
Income Statement
75
Positive
TC Energy's income statement shows a strong EBIT and EBITDA margin, indicating efficient operations. However, the company experienced a decline in revenue growth rate, which is a concern. The net profit margin remains healthy, reflecting good profitability despite the revenue dip.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed well. However, the return on equity is solid, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is moderate, reflecting a balanced asset structure.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows a strong free cash flow growth rate, which is a positive indicator for future investments and debt repayment. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is relatively low, suggesting limited cash available after capital expenditures.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue12.81B13.77B13.27B12.31B13.39B13.00B
Gross Profit6.34B6.61B6.67B5.80B6.68B6.53B
EBITDA10.88B11.22B8.66B5.24B6.70B9.53B
Net Income4.35B4.70B2.92B748.00M1.96B4.62B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets116.84B118.24B125.03B114.35B104.22B100.30B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.42B801.00M3.68B620.00M673.00M1.53B
Total Debt59.43B59.88B63.66B58.68B53.15B49.99B
Total Liabilities79.46B79.88B86.03B80.23B70.82B66.83B
Stockholders Equity27.52B27.59B29.55B33.99B33.27B31.40B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.44B1.34B-881.00M-352.00M966.00M-1.08B
Operating Cash Flow7.53B7.70B7.27B6.38B6.89B7.06B
Investing Cash Flow-6.59B-6.91B-12.29B-7.01B-7.71B-6.05B
Financing Cash Flow-2.19B-3.87B8.09B487.00M-88.00M-800.00M

TC Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price70.38
Price Trends
50DMA
72.16
Negative
100DMA
68.86
Positive
200DMA
67.22
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.64
Positive
RSI
37.61
Neutral
STOCH
21.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TRP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 70.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 72.72, below the 50-day MA of 72.16, and above the 200-day MA of 67.22, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.64 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:TRP.

TC Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
$73.20B17.2515.25%4.79%-2.93%23.33%
C$9.78B18.4418.92%5.07%1.57%55.82%
$142.61B22.999.76%5.72%48.78%9.69%
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
$12.32B16.489.01%3.02%-0.68%49.61%
$30.82B17.8710.69%5.28%-3.86%-9.35%
$3.92B24.5617.22%7.11%-14.27%-11.69%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:TRP
TC Energy
70.38
8.29
13.35%
TSE:ENB
Enbridge
65.40
11.91
22.26%
TSE:PPL
Pembina Pipeline
53.06
-2.41
-4.35%
TSE:GEI
Gibson Energy
23.91
2.76
13.04%
TSE:ALA
AltaGas
41.17
9.07
28.26%
TSE:KEY
Keyera Corp.
41.41
0.52
1.27%

TC Energy Corporate Events

TC Energy Updates Code of Business Ethics to Reinforce Core Values
Oct 29, 2025

On October 29, 2025, TC Energy Corporation announced updates to its Code of Business Ethics (COBE) policy, emphasizing the importance of ethical conduct and integrity in its operations. This policy update reinforces the company’s commitment to safety, personal accountability, and teamwork, aiming to ensure all employees and contractors adhere to these standards. The announcement highlights TC Energy’s dedication to maintaining trust with stakeholders by aligning actions with core values, which is crucial for its reputation and operational success in the energy industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRP) stock is a Buy with a C$74.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TC Energy stock, see the TSE:TRP Stock Forecast page.

TC Energy Updates Code of Business Ethics to Reinforce Integrity
Oct 29, 2025

On October 29, 2025, TC Energy Corporation announced an update to its Code of Business Ethics (COBE) policy, emphasizing the importance of ethical conduct and alignment with the company’s core values. The updated policy, which applies to all employees and contractors, reinforces the company’s commitment to integrity, safety, and responsible business practices. This move is expected to strengthen stakeholder confidence and ensure compliance with applicable laws and regulations, thereby enhancing TC Energy’s reputation and operational effectiveness.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRP) stock is a Buy with a C$74.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TC Energy stock, see the TSE:TRP Stock Forecast page.

TC Energy Announces Q3 2025 Financial Results Call
Oct 16, 2025

On October 16, 2025, TC Energy announced it will host a teleconference and webcast on November 6, 2025, to discuss its third quarter financial results and provide updates on its financial outlook and strategic priorities for 2026. The event will feature discussions by the company’s executive leadership, including the CEO and CFO, and aims to inform stakeholders about TC Energy’s growth objectives and industry positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRP) stock is a Buy with a C$81.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TC Energy stock, see the TSE:TRP Stock Forecast page.

Delistings and Listing ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
TC Energy Closes $350 Million Notes Offering and Plans Share Redemption
Neutral
Oct 9, 2025

TC Energy announced the successful closing of a US$350 million Junior Subordinated Notes offering by TransCanada PipeLines Limited. The proceeds will be used to redeem the company’s Cumulative Redeemable First Preferred Shares, Series 11, and for other corporate purposes. This financial maneuver is part of TC Energy’s strategy to manage its capital structure and reduce indebtedness, potentially impacting its financial stability and market positioning. The redemption will result in the delisting of the Series 11 Shares from the Toronto Stock Exchange, affecting shareholders holding these shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRP) stock is a Hold with a C$77.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TC Energy stock, see the TSE:TRP Stock Forecast page.

TransCanada PipeLines Secures Underwriting for New Debt Issuance
Oct 8, 2025

On October 6, 2025, TransCanada PipeLines Limited entered into an underwriting agreement with major financial institutions including Morgan Stanley and BofA Securities for the issuance of 6.250% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2085. This strategic move is aimed at strengthening the company’s financial position and supporting its long-term infrastructure projects, potentially enhancing its market competitiveness and providing value to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRP) stock is a Hold with a C$73.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TC Energy stock, see the TSE:TRP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
TC Energy Considers U.S. Junior Subordinated Notes Offering
Neutral
Oct 6, 2025

TC Energy announced that its subsidiary, TransCanada PipeLines Limited, is considering an offering of U.S. Junior Subordinated Notes. If successful, the proceeds from this offering will be used to redeem outstanding preferred shares, reduce indebtedness, and for general corporate purposes. The announcement highlights the company’s ongoing financial strategies to manage its capital structure effectively, although the completion, timing, or terms of the offering remain uncertain.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRP) stock is a Hold with a C$73.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TC Energy stock, see the TSE:TRP Stock Forecast page.

TC Energy Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results and Growth
Aug 1, 2025

TC Energy Corporation is a leading North American energy company specializing in natural gas pipelines, power generation, and energy storage, with a significant presence in the LNG export market. In its second quarter of 2025, TC Energy reported robust financial performance, driven by strong execution and asset performance, leading to an improved financial outlook for the year. The company announced a higher expected comparable EBITDA range of $10.8 to $11.0 billion for 2025, up from the previous outlook, and highlighted $4.5 billion in new growth projects over the past nine months. Key financial metrics include a net income of $0.9 billion and a comparable EBITDA of $2.6 billion, both showing growth compared to the same period in 2024. The company also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.85 per common share. Looking ahead, TC Energy remains confident in its disciplined strategy to capture high-value, low-risk opportunities across North America, aiming for long-term shareholder value creation.

TC Energy’s Earnings Call Highlights Strong Growth and Strategic Advancements
Aug 1, 2025

TC Energy Corporation’s recent earnings call painted a positive picture of the company’s financial health and strategic advancements. The call underscored TC Energy’s robust financial performance, successful project completions, and a promising forecast for increased natural gas demand. Despite some challenges related to currency impacts and power prices, the overall sentiment was optimistic, highlighting the company’s strong outlook.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 01, 2025