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Triple Flag Precious Metals (TSE:TFPM)
TSX:TFPM

Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) AI Stock Analysis

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Triple Flag Precious Metals

(TSX:TFPM)

71Outperform
Triple Flag Precious Metals has a strong revenue growth trajectory and maintains a robust balance sheet. The company faces challenges with declining profitability, but positive cash flow and strategic acquisitions bolster future growth potential. Technical indicators are favorable, though valuation is impacted by current earnings difficulties.
Positive Factors
Dividend Yield
Triple Flag offers an above-average dividend yield.
Metal Sales Performance
Triple Flag delivered Q1/25 metal sales slightly better than expectations, driven by strength in gold.
Portfolio Quality
Triple Flag has a good quality, long-life portfolio with royalties and streams on assets that are generally seen as low-cost and in stable jurisdictions.
Negative Factors
Early Stage Project Challenges
A challenge for the Silicon royalty is its earlier stage and associated uncertainty, including development timeline and mine profile.
Liquidity Concerns
Liquidity of shares remains an overhang, and the ramp-up of select portfolio assets has been challenging.
Resource Uncertainty
Most of the ~16Moz of gold resources defined are contained in the inferred category, with an uncertain production profile.

Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Triple Flag Precious Metals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTriple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) is a leading precious metals streaming and royalty company. It operates primarily in the mining sector, focusing on gold and silver assets globally. The company's core business involves providing capital to mining companies in exchange for future streams or royalties of precious metals, allowing miners to secure funding while TFPM gains a share of the production or revenue from the mines.
How the Company Makes MoneyTriple Flag Precious Metals generates revenue through streaming and royalty agreements. In streaming agreements, TFPM provides upfront capital to mining companies in exchange for the right to purchase a portion of the mine's future production at a predetermined price. This allows TFPM to benefit from the production of gold and silver at costs below market value. Additionally, in royalty agreements, TFPM earns a percentage of the revenue or profit generated from the mine's production without owning or operating the mine. These arrangements enable TFPM to maintain a diversified portfolio of income-generating assets across various mining projects worldwide.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Triple Flag Precious Metals shows strong revenue growth and a robust balance sheet with low leverage, which are positive indicators. However, it faces challenges in profitability with negative margins and historical cash flow volatility, posing potential risks.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Triple Flag Precious Metals shows a mixed income statement performance. The TTM data reveals a negative EBIT and net income, indicating operational challenges. However, there is consistent revenue growth over the years, with a significant 20.80% increase from 2022 to 2023. Despite this growth, the company is struggling with profitability, as reflected in negative margins in the TTM period.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's balance sheet is robust, with a high equity ratio of 96.42% in the TTM period, indicating financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio remains low at 0.02, suggesting low leverage. However, there is a notable decrease in total assets and equity from previous years, which may indicate potential risks in asset management.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows strong operating cash flow relative to net income, with a ratio of 3.44 in the TTM period. Free cash flow has improved significantly from a deficit to a positive figure in recent periods, reflecting better cash management. However, historical volatility in free cash flow growth suggests caution.
Breakdown
Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020Dec 2019
Income StatementTotal Revenue
204.02M151.88M150.42M112.59M59.15M
Gross Profit
167.18M87.00M83.25M50.10M12.19M
EBIT
40.26M16.75M68.74M34.66M1.41M
EBITDA
109.19M118.17M123.48M96.16M13.15M
Net Income Common Stockholders
36.28M55.09M45.53M55.56M-41.39M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
17.38M76.47M51.34M38.50M29.69M
Total Assets
1.89B1.34B1.30B1.30B657.96M
Total Debt
59.15M1.92M1.13M276.38M58.57M
Net Debt
41.77M-69.18M-39.55M255.74M47.80M
Total Liabilities
83.72M18.55M8.79M281.98M64.34M
Stockholders Equity
1.81B1.32B1.29B1.02B593.62M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-36.76M66.10M68.75M-645.30M-132.77M
Operating Cash Flow
154.14M118.38M120.02M84.38M39.72M
Investing Cash Flow
-212.98M-48.92M-48.15M-651.65M-133.89M
Financing Cash Flow
5.12M-38.75M-51.84M577.13M95.58M

Triple Flag Precious Metals Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price29.84
Price Trends
50DMA
27.56
Positive
100DMA
25.24
Positive
200DMA
23.84
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.50
Positive
RSI
63.26
Neutral
STOCH
75.90
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TFPM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.28, above the 50-day MA of 27.56, and above the 200-day MA of 23.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.50 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 63.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TFPM.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSWPM
79
Outperform
$53.57B72.067.43%0.75%28.41%-0.59%
TSFNV
74
Outperform
$43.84B57.919.38%0.87%-7.22%
71
Outperform
C$6.09B-1.26%1.01%33.94%-161.61%
TSOR
70
Outperform
C$6.20B272.661.33%0.79%6.02%
TSSSL
68
Neutral
$3.58B179.481.00%0.67%-0.35%-65.11%
49
Neutral
$1.96B-1.23-21.20%3.72%0.88%-29.24%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:TFPM
Triple Flag Precious Metals
30.31
8.09
36.41%
TSE:SSL
Sandstorm Gold
12.21
4.56
59.65%
TSE:OR
Osisko Gold Royalties
33.31
11.89
55.52%
TSE:WPM
Wheaton Precious Metals
118.09
44.91
61.37%
TSE:FNV
Franco-Nevada
236.63
65.63
38.38%

Triple Flag Precious Metals Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: -1.55%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong performance for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. in 2024, with record GEOs and cash flow, significant acquisitions, and robust financial metrics. While there are challenges such as illegal mining at Buritica and operational uncertainties at El Mochito, the overall outlook remains positive with strong growth projections and strategic investments.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Record GEOs and Cash Flow
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. achieved record GEOs of 113,000 ounces, marking the eighth consecutive year of GEO growth. The company also reported an annual operating cash flow of $214 million, benefiting from a rising metal price environment.
Significant Portfolio Growth
The acquisition of the Tres Quebradas Royalty for $28 million was announced, providing exposure to a large, well-capitalized mining project with long-term benefits for shareholders. Additionally, Cerro Lindo GEOs increased by 24% year over year, and Camino Rojo achieved record production of 137,000 ounces, a 19% beat on initial guidance.
Strong Financial Performance
The company paid out over $43 million in dividends, reflecting a 5% increase, and returned nearly $9 million to shareholders via share buybacks. Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. maintains a debt-free balance sheet with over $700 million available for new transactions.
Growth Projections
The company projects GEOs of 105,000 to 115,000 ounces for 2025 and anticipates further growth to 135,000 to 145,000 GEOs by 2029, representing over 25% growth from 2025.
Negative Updates
Artisanal Mining Challenges at Buritica
The company faces challenges from illegal miners at the Buritica site, though operations continue. This is an ongoing issue that may persist.
El Mochito Uncertainty
The El Mochito asset, a small zinc mine, has faced operational challenges due to higher costs and lower zinc prices, though deliveries resumed in Q3 and Q4 2024.
Company Guidance
During Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.'s 2024 Q4 results conference call, the company reported record performance for the year, including 113,000 GEOs, which fell within the upper half of their guidance range. The company highlighted an annual operating cash flow of $214 million, attributing this to the rising metal price environment. For 2025, Triple Flag provided a GEO guidance range of 105,000 to 115,000 ounces, driven by high-grade deposits at North Parks and solid performance from Cerro Lindo. The company also announced a $28 million acquisition of the Tres Quebradas Royalty, expected to generate near-term cash flow. Triple Flag's portfolio showed a compound annual growth rate of approximately 20% since 2017, with projected growth to 135,000 to 145,000 GEOs by 2029. The company paid over $43 million in dividends in 2024, reflecting a 5% increase, and returned nearly $9 million via share buybacks. Looking ahead, Triple Flag emphasized its focus on reinvestment, maintaining a strong cash flow per share, and sustaining a progressive dividend policy, supported by a debt-free balance sheet and $700 million available for new transactions.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corporate Events

Dividends
Triple Flag Announces Q2 2025 Dividend
Positive
May 6, 2025

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. announced a cash dividend of US$0.055 per common share, to be paid on June 16, 2025, for shareholders of record by May 30, 2025. This dividend declaration reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders and may enhance its attractiveness to investors seeking stable income from precious metals investments.

Spark’s Take on TSE:TFPM Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:TFPM is a Outperform.

Triple Flag Precious Metals has a strong revenue growth trajectory and a robust balance sheet, supported by strategic acquisitions and an expanded credit facility. While technical indicators show positive trends, the negative P/E ratio and declining profitability are concerns. The company’s proactive measures, such as expanding its portfolio and enhancing financial flexibility, bolster its growth potential despite operational challenges.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:TFPM stock, click here.

Business Operations and Strategy
Triple Flag Precious Metals Announces Strategic Development
Positive
May 6, 2025

Triple Flag Precious Metals has announced a significant development in its operations, which is expected to enhance its market position and operational efficiency. This announcement is likely to have a positive impact on the company’s stakeholders, as it reflects a strategic move to strengthen its industry standing.

Spark’s Take on TSE:TFPM Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:TFPM is a Outperform.

Triple Flag Precious Metals has a strong revenue growth trajectory and a robust balance sheet, supported by strategic acquisitions and an expanded credit facility. While technical indicators show positive trends, the negative P/E ratio and declining profitability are concerns. The company’s proactive measures, such as expanding its portfolio and enhancing financial flexibility, bolster its growth potential despite operational challenges.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:TFPM stock, click here.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Triple Flag Expands Credit Facility to $1 Billion, Enhancing Growth Potential
Positive
Apr 23, 2025

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. has announced an increase in its revolving credit facility to $1 billion with improved terms, reflecting the company’s growth and strong financial outlook. This enhanced credit facility, led by major banks, provides Triple Flag with significant capital to pursue growth opportunities, strengthening its position in the precious metals industry.

Spark’s Take on TSE:TFPM Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:TFPM is a Outperform.

Triple Flag Precious Metals demonstrates strong revenue growth and strategic acquisitions, but declining profitability and a negative P/E ratio are concerns. Positive technical trends and successful corporate events bolster future prospects, while operational challenges remain a risk.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:TFPM stock, click here.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Triple Flag Acquires Orogen Royalties, Expands Gold Portfolio
Positive
Apr 22, 2025

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. has entered into an agreement to acquire Orogen Royalties Inc., including a 1.0% NSR royalty on the Expanded Silicon Gold Project, for approximately C$421 million. This acquisition enhances Triple Flag’s portfolio with a valuable gold asset in Nevada, operated by AngloGold Ashanti plc, and establishes a strategic partnership with Orogen Spinco, which will focus on exploration-stage royalties and new discovery opportunities.

Spark’s Take on TSE:TFPM Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:TFPM is a Outperform.

Triple Flag Precious Metals demonstrates strong revenue growth and strategic acquisitions, but declining profitability and a negative P/E ratio are concerns. Positive technical trends and successful corporate events bolster future prospects, while operational challenges remain a risk.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:TFPM stock, click here.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Triple Flag Reports Record Q1 2025 Revenue Amid Strategic Acquisitions
Positive
Apr 9, 2025

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. reported a record revenue of $82.2 million for Q1 2025, driven by the sale of 28,761 gold equivalent ounces. The company has completed acquisitions of the Arcata, Azuca, and Tres Quebradas assets, enhancing its cash flow potential from long-life operations in the Americas. This positions Triple Flag for significant growth in a favorable precious metals price environment, with a 2025 guidance of 105,000 to 115,000 GEOs.

Spark’s Take on TSE:TFPM Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:TFPM is a Outperform.

Triple Flag Precious Metals scores well due to strong revenue growth, a solid balance sheet, and positive cash flow. However, challenges include declining profitability and a negative P/E ratio. Positive technical trends and strategic acquisitions support future growth, but operational challenges remain a risk.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:TFPM stock, click here.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Triple Flag Secures Silver and Gold Streams in Peru
Positive
Mar 5, 2025

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. has acquired 5% silver and gold streams from the Arcata and Azuca mines in Peru, operated by Sierra Sun Precious Metals S.A.C., for $35 million. This strategic acquisition is expected to enhance Triple Flag’s portfolio with a projected increase in gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) to 5-6 thousand per year by 2028, while also securing a long-term partnership with Sierra Sun to support local community programs.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Triple Flag Precious Metals Declares Q1 2025 Dividend
Positive
Feb 19, 2025

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. announced a quarterly cash dividend of US$0.055 per common share, to be distributed on March 14, 2025, to shareholders recorded by March 3, 2025. This dividend declaration signifies the company’s stable financial position and commitment to delivering shareholder value, reinforcing its strategic positioning within the precious metals industry.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.