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Triple Flag Precious Metals
(TSX:TFPM)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
C$56.00
▲(15.20% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
The score is driven primarily by strong core fundamentals (high recent profitability and low leverage) and a very constructive earnings update with raised guidance and growth catalysts. Offsetting these positives are weak cash conversion in the latest TTM (meaningfully negative free cash flow) and somewhat stretched technical momentum, while valuation is reasonable but not strongly supported by dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue growth and profitability
Revenue has expanded substantially across several years while TTM net income reached approximately $411.2 million on $488.0 million of revenue. This demonstrates strong economic exposure to producing assets and provides a substantial earnings base to support continued portfolio investment.
Negative Factors
Weak recent free cash flow conversion
Negative TTM free cash flow means reported profitability has not translated fully into cash available after investment and other uses. Although operating cash generation is improving, weaker conversion can constrain shareholder returns and increase reliance on financing during an active deployment cycle.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue growth and profitability
Revenue has expanded substantially across several years while TTM net income reached approximately $411.2 million on $488.0 million of revenue. This demonstrates strong economic exposure to producing assets and provides a substantial earnings base to support continued portfolio investment.
Read all positive factors
Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$9.68B
Dividend Yield0.69%
Average Volume (3M)202.15K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.0
Beta (1Y)1.82
Revenue Growth49.16%
EPS Growth130.45%
CountryCA
Employees20
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOther Precious Metals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.00
Shares Outstanding206,003,040
10 Day Avg. Volume183,029
30 Day Avg. Volume202,152
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)3.31
Price to Sales (P/S)17.10
P/FCF Ratio72.91
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$60.08Price Target Upside23.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)1.4
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$511.68M
Triple Flag Precious Metals Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a precious metals streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals, streams, royalties, and other mineral interests in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Cote d’Ivoire, Mexico, Mongolia,...
How the Company Makes Money
TFPM makes money primarily through precious-metals streams and royalties linked to mines operated by other companies. Under a streaming agreement, TFPM generally pays an upfront amount (and may also pay an ongoing per-ounce cash payment) in exchan...
Triple Flag Precious Metals Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial picture: significant YoY growth in adjusted EPS (63%), adjusted EBITDA (54%) and operating cash flow per share (42%), immediate cash flow from the $440M Ravenswood stream, a favorable settlement and long-term deliveries from Steppe Gold, raised 2026 and 2030 production guidance, and >$1.1B of liquidity supporting further accretive deployments and shareholder returns (dividend increase and $20M buybacks). Risks noted include a scheduled step down at Cerro Lindo reducing near-term silver contribution, a revolver draw that management plans to repay in 2027, mark-to-market driven earnings variability, and several growth projects that still require studies/decisions (Northparkes mill expansion, Prieska deep zone option) which introduce timing uncertainty. Overall, the positive operational momentum, strategic acquisitions, and strong cash generation materially outweigh the highlighted challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Production and Guidance Raise
Q2 production of 28,700 GEOs and H1 production of ~59,000 GEOs. Increased 2026 GEO guidance to 100,000–110,000 and 2030 outlook to 150,000–160,000 GEOs.
Negative Updates
Cerro Lindo Step Down Reduced Silver Contribution
Cerro Lindo experienced a scheduled step down in April which reduced silver contribution to near-term volumes. Management indicated the step down was anticipated and that Cerro Lindo remains a substantial asset with no further step downs expected.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Production and Guidance Raise
Q2 production of 28,700 GEOs and H1 production of ~59,000 GEOs. Increased 2026 GEO guidance to 100,000–110,000 and 2030 outlook to 150,000–160,000 GEOs.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Triple Flag raised its 2026 GEO guidance to 100,000–110,000 GEOs and its 2030 outlook to 150,000–160,000 GEOs; in Q2 it sold ~28,700 GEOs (H1 ~59,000), generated $117M of adjusted EBITDA and delivered operating cash flow per share of $0.54 (up from $0.38, +42% YoY). Management closed a $440M, 5.5% Ravenswood gold stream with first deliveries in July (expected “normal” quarterly deliveries ~2,300–3,300 GEOs and a ramp toward >200,000 oz/year by 2028), secured a Steppe Gold settlement that returns >$60M to date and guarantees >34,000 oz of gold over the next 10 years (after an initial $28M investment), and reiterated key growth assets: Hope Bay (1% NSR; 400,000–435,000 oz/year over an initial 11‑year life; first production 2030), Kemess (PEA; production by 2031), Northparkes (625 Mt resource; potential mill expansion to ≥10 Mtpa) and Arthur (pre‑feasibility/permitting work). The company also increased its annualized dividend to $0.24 (up 4%), repurchased $20M of stock in Q2, reports >$1.1B of available liquidity, has deployed >$900M since start of 2025, and expects to target the top half of 2026 guidance while rapidly repaying revolver in 2027 given strong cash flows.Triple Flag Precious Metals Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 487.99M | 395.51M | 268.99M | 204.02M | 151.88M | 150.42M |
| Gross Profit | 362.87M | 267.19M | 230.76M | 167.18M | 87.00M | 83.25M |
| EBITDA | 439.64M | 315.59M | 68.75M | 109.19M | 118.17M | 123.48M |
| Net Income | 411.24M | 244.21M | -23.08M | 36.28M | 55.09M | 45.53M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.57B | 2.11B | 1.77B | 1.89B | 1.34B | 1.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 90.87M | 122.02M | 39.26M | 23.63M | 76.47M | 54.34M |
| Total Debt | 235.00M | 1.46M | 1.69M | 59.15M | 1.92M | 1.13M |
| Total Liabilities | 289.81M | 68.14M | 34.26M | 83.72M | 18.55M | 8.79M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.28B | 2.04B | 1.74B | 1.81B | 1.32B | 1.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -218.01M | 92.75M | 156.01M | -36.76M | 66.10M | 68.75M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 390.25M | 315.20M | 213.50M | 154.14M | 118.38M | 120.02M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -609.20M | -221.79M | -81.96M | -212.98M | -48.92M | -48.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 156.60M | -57.80M | -112.60M | 5.12M | -38.75M | -51.84M |
Triple Flag Precious Metals Technical Analysis
Positive
48.61
Price Trends
43.06
Positive
43.35
Positive
45.84
Positive
Market Momentum
1.26
Positive
56.80
Neutral
44.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TFPM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 48.61 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.01, above the 50-day MA of 43.06, and above the 200-day MA of 45.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TFPM.
Triple Flag Precious Metals Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
87 Outperform | C$129.82M | 9.16 | 33.26% | ― | 120.16% | 150.72% | |
77 Outperform | C$9.68B | 16.96 | 19.46% | 0.69% | 49.16% | 130.45% | |
69 Neutral | C$553.84M | 7.86 | 38.96% | 0.96% | 206.10% | ― | |
63 Neutral | C$1.33B | -3,222.05 | -0.11% | 0.49% | 89.40% | 90.03% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:TFPM
Triple Flag Precious Metals
46.99
7.50
18.98%
TSE:MTA
Metalla Royalty & Streaming
14.26
6.54
84.72%
TSE:VOXR
Vox Royalty
7.99
3.09
63.03%
TSE:EMPR
Empress Royalty
0.96
0.12
14.29%
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Triple Flag Lifts Dividend for Fifth Straight Year
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. has increased its quarterly cash dividend to US$0.06 per common share, payable on September 15, 2026, to shareholders of record on August 31. The move lifts the forward annualized dividend to US$0.24 per share, up...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Triple Flag lifts dividend after strong Q2 and Ravenswood gold stream deal
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
Triple Flag reported strong second-quarter 2026 financial results, with revenue rising to $129.2 million from $94.1 million a year earlier and operating cash flow increasing to $111.2 million. Net earnings and adjusted EBITDA also advanced sharply...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.