Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$7.93B
• Dividend Yield: 0.79%
• Average Volume (3M): 223.38K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 32.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.96
• Revenue Growth: 50.16%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: CA
• Employees: 13
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Other Precious Metals
• EPS (TTM): 0.34
• Shares Outstanding: 206,495,360
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 163,418
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 223,382
• PEG Ratio: 0.81
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 11.24
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.38
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$48.07
• Price Target Upside: 21.91% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: C$44.00 ▲(11.59% Upside)

Triple Flag Precious Metals has a strong overall stock score driven by robust financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment. The company's low leverage and efficient cash flow management are significant strengths. However, technical indicators suggest weak momentum, and the high P/E ratio indicates potential overvaluation. Despite these concerns, the company's strategic acquisitions and strong financial health position it well for future growth.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The company's strong revenue growth indicates effective business operations and increasing demand for its streaming and royalty services, supporting long-term expansion.

Strong Financial Position

A strong financial position with no debt and significant liquidity enhances financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and resilience against market fluctuations.

Successful Acquisitions

Strategic acquisitions expand the company's asset base and revenue potential, providing a diversified income stream and supporting future growth.

Negative Factors

Potential Production Decline

A potential production decline could impact future revenue and profitability, posing challenges to maintaining growth momentum and meeting market expectations.

Challenges with Steppe Gold

Legal disputes and outstanding debts with partners can create financial uncertainty and distract management, potentially affecting operational focus and financial performance.

Gross Profit Margin Pressure

Decreasing gross profit margins suggest rising costs or pricing pressures, which could erode profitability if not managed effectively, impacting long-term financial health.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a gold-focused streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals and other streams and royalties in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, and the United States. The company has a portfolio of streams and royalties providing exposure primarily to gold and silver. It has 78 assets, including 9 streams and 69 royalties. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada. Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. is a subsidiary of Triple Flag Mining Elliott and Management Co-Invest LP.

How the Company Makes Money

Triple Flag Precious Metals generates revenue primarily through its streaming and royalty agreements with mining companies. In a streaming agreement, TFPM provides upfront capital to a mining company in exchange for the right to purchase a percentage of the mine's future production at a predetermined price, typically below market value. The company earns revenue as the mines produce and deliver the precious metals. Additionally, through royalty agreements, TFPM receives a percentage of the revenue generated from the sale of metals produced by the mines, which creates a steady income stream with minimal operational risk. Key revenue streams for TFPM include payments from active mines in their portfolio, along with any potential new streams or royalties established through partnerships or acquisitions in the mining sector. Collaborations with established mining companies and strategic investments in high-potential mining projects further contribute to TFPM's earnings potential.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Triple Flag Precious Metals demonstrates a healthy financial position with impressive revenue growth and strong cash flow generation. The balance sheet is highly stable due to minimal leverage and a strong equity base. However, profitability metrics such as net profit margin and ROE are areas for improvement.

Income Statement

Triple Flag Precious Metals has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a notable increase from $151.9M in 2022 to $293.7M TTM. Gross profit margin remains robust at 58.5% TTM, although net profit margin is low at 1.7% due to modest net income. EBITDA margin is healthy at 54.7%, indicating effective cost management despite volatile EBIT performance.

Balance Sheet

The company exhibits a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.001, reflecting minimal leverage. ROE is weak at 0.3% TTM, pointing to limited returns on equity investments. The equity ratio stands at a solid 98.2%, underscoring financial stability and low risk.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is strong at $240.5M TTM, indicating robust cash generation. Free cash flow improved significantly from -$36.8M in 2023 to $117.3M TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high at 47.98, indicating efficient cash conversion, though free cash flow growth has been inconsistent over the years.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	324.21M	268.99M	204.02M	151.88M	150.42M	112.59M
Gross Profit	216.81M	230.76M	167.18M	87.00M	83.25M	50.10M
EBITDA	351.42M	68.75M	109.19M	118.17M	123.48M	96.16M
Net Income	172.19M	-23.08M	36.28M	55.09M	45.53M	55.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.85B	1.77B	1.89B	1.34B	1.30B	1.30B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	86.27M	39.26M	23.63M	76.47M	54.34M	48.21M
Total Debt	1.60M	1.69M	59.15M	1.92M	1.13M	276.38M
Total Liabilities	40.58M	34.26M	83.72M	18.55M	8.79M	281.98M
Stockholders Equity	1.81B	1.74B	1.81B	1.32B	1.29B	1.02B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	145.90M	156.01M	-36.76M	66.10M	68.75M	-645.30M
Operating Cash Flow	267.24M	213.50M	154.14M	118.38M	120.02M	84.38M
Investing Cash Flow	-124.06M	-81.96M	-212.98M	-48.92M	-48.15M	-651.65M
Financing Cash Flow	-82.41M	-112.60M	5.12M	-38.75M	-51.84M	577.13M

Triple Flag Precious Metals Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 39.43
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TFPM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 39.43 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.44, below the 50-day MA of 40.01, and above the 200-day MA of 31.93, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.45 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:TFPM.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TFPM	78 Outperform	C$7.93B	32.09	10.04%	0.79%	50.16%	―
EMPR	70 Outperform	C$112.29M	21.29	20.32%	―	224.65%	―
VOXR	69 Neutral	C$373.25M	-109.15	-4.19%	1.27%	-9.25%	-2386.36%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
GMIN	53 Neutral	$5.78B	35.67	16.17%	―	―	―
SLS	31 Underperform	C$1.46B	-15.43	―	―	―	-28.38%

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corporate Events

Triple Flag Reports Strong Q3 2025 Revenue and New Mine Productions

Triple Flag Precious Metals announced a strong financial performance for the third quarter of 2025, reporting revenue of $93.5 million from the sale of 27,037 gold equivalent ounces. The company remains on track to meet its annual guidance, benefiting from record gold prices and the commencement of production at Johnson Camp Mine and Tres Quebradas. These developments are expected to enhance the company’s portfolio and deliver long-term value to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TFPM) stock is a Buy with a C$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triple Flag Precious Metals stock, see the TSE:TFPM Stock Forecast page.

Triple Flag’s Earnings Call: Strong Growth Amid Challenges

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. recently held its earnings call, revealing a generally positive sentiment with strong financial performances and strategic acquisitions setting the stage for future growth. However, the call was not without its concerns, particularly regarding payment arrears from Steppe Gold and potential production declines anticipated in 2026.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Boosts Quarterly Dividend by 5%

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. has announced a 5% increase in its quarterly dividend, raising it to US$0.0575 per common share, to be paid on September 15, 2025. This marks the fourth consecutive annual increase since its IPO in 2021, reflecting the company’s consistent financial growth and commitment to returning value to shareholders. The increase in dividends underscores Triple Flag’s robust performance in the precious metals market, potentially enhancing its attractiveness to investors and strengthening its position within the industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TFPM) stock is a Buy with a C$30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triple Flag Precious Metals stock, see the TSE:TFPM Stock Forecast page.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Raises Quarterly Dividend by 5%

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. has announced a 5% increase in its quarterly dividend, raising it to US$0.0575 per common share, to be paid on September 15, 2025. This marks the fourth consecutive annual increase since its IPO in May 2021, reflecting the company’s stable financial performance and commitment to returning value to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TFPM) stock is a Buy with a C$30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triple Flag Precious Metals stock, see the TSE:TFPM Stock Forecast page.

Triple Flag Reports Record Cash Flow and Increases Dividend Amid Strategic Acquisitions

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. reported record operating cash flow per share for Q2 2025 and announced a 5% increase in its quarterly dividend, marking the fourth consecutive annual increase since its IPO. The company completed significant acquisitions, including a 1.0% NSR royalty on the Arthur gold project and a 1.5% GR royalty on the Johnson Camp Mine, enhancing its growth potential and strengthening its market position. These developments are expected to positively impact Triple Flag’s operations, with several projects anticipated to commence production in the latter half of 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TFPM) stock is a Buy with a C$30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triple Flag Precious Metals stock, see the TSE:TFPM Stock Forecast page.