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Franco-Nevada
(TSX:FNV)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
C$422.00
â–²(12.13% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (high margins and debt-free balance sheet) and a supportive earnings outlook (guidance reiterated with momentum toward the upper half, record first-half results). Technicals are positive and confirm constructive momentum, while the biggest constraints are a relatively rich valuation (P/E ~30.7, low yield) and the recurring theme of volatility in earnings/free cash flow and specific asset uncertainties (notably Cobre Panamá timing).
Positive Factors
High-margin royalty and streaming model
The royalty and streaming model is generating exceptionally high margins, with margin per GEO rising substantially since 2022. This supports durable cash generation because Franco-Nevada participates in production economics without directly bearing mine operating costs or sustaining capital decisions.
Negative Factors
Uneven free cash flow conversion
Although Franco-Nevada generates substantial cash over the trailing period, the sharp variability in free cash flow reduces earnings predictability. Uneven conversion can complicate dividend planning, acquisition timing, and assessment of how consistently reported profitability translates into deployable capital.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High-margin royalty and streaming model
The royalty and streaming model is generating exceptionally high margins, with margin per GEO rising substantially since 2022. This supports durable cash generation because Franco-Nevada participates in production economics without directly bearing mine operating costs or sustaining capital decisions.
Read all positive factors
Franco-Nevada (FNV) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$70.17B
Dividend Yield0.64%
Average Volume (3M)345.49K
Price to Earnings (P/E)34.7
Beta (1Y)1.60
Revenue Growth71.54%
EPS Growth85.90%
CountryCA
Employees38
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.59
Shares Outstanding192,873,810
10 Day Avg. Volume317,633
30 Day Avg. Volume345,486
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.34
Price to Book (P/B)5.24
Price to Sales (P/S)21.54
P/FCF Ratio-55.81
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$398.21Price Target Upside5.81% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)8.42
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$2.54B
Franco-Nevada Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Franco-Nevada Corporation operates as a royalty and stream company focused on precious metals in South America, Central America, Mexico, the United States, Canada, Australia, Europe, and Africa. It operates through Precious Metals, Other Mining an...
How the Company Makes Money
Franco-Nevada makes money primarily through royalties and metal streams on third-party mining operations.
1) Royalties (revenue-based and production-based)
- Under a royalty agreement, Franco-Nevada provides upfront capital (or acquires an existi...
Franco-Nevada Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operating and financial picture driven by strong commodity prices, double-digit GEO growth, record first-half financial results, high margins and ample liquidity ($4.3B) to pursue pipeline opportunities. Challenges noted were asset-level volatility (Hemlo, Candelaria, South Arturo), higher costs and depletion tied to recent acquisitions, timing/uncertainty around Cobre Panamá restart, and a pipeline that includes many smaller near-term deals with larger transactions being lumpier and longer-dated. On balance, the favorable macro tailwinds, diversified portfolio performance and strong capital position outweigh the operational and timing risks discussed.Positive Updates
GEOs Sold Growth
Total GEOs sold increased 18% year-over-year to 132,405 in Q2 2026 (precious metal GEOs 114,111, up 23% YoY). Approximately 269,000 GEOs sold in first half of 2026, supporting guidance toward the upper half of the full-year 510,000–570,000 range.
Negative Updates
Rising Cost of Sales and Depletion
Cost of sales increased to $45.9 million in Q2 2026 versus $33.5 million a year ago (approximately +37%). Depletion rose to $84 million from $64 million YoY (≈+31%), driven by recent higher per-ounce depletion assets (Yanacocha, Casa Berardi, Porcupine, Côté).
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Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
GEOs Sold Growth
Total GEOs sold increased 18% year-over-year to 132,405 in Q2 2026 (precious metal GEOs 114,111, up 23% YoY). Approximately 269,000 GEOs sold in first half of 2026, supporting guidance toward the upper half of the full-year 510,000–570,000 range.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Franco‑Nevada reiterated 2026 GEO guidance of 510,000–570,000, reporting ~269,000 GEOs sold in the first six months and 132,405 GEOs in Q2 and saying the company is tracking toward the upper half of that range given expected stronger H2 production from Candelaria, Tocantinzinho, Côté and Valentine, plus an anticipated 9,000–10,000 GEOs from Cobre Panamá as stockpiles are processed; Q2 broke out to 114,111 precious‑metal GEOs and 18,209 diversified GEOs (diversified GEOs converted using a fixed $4,500/oz), with commodity tailwinds (average gold +38% and silver +118% Q2‑over‑Q2, WTI > $80/bbl) and oil‑sector signals (U.S. rig count 450 from 420, reinvestment rates up to 55% from 51%) that should sustain energy revenue into H2; company noted strong Y/Y financial performance (revenue +57%, adjusted EBITDA +45%, adjusted net income +46% with adjusted net income of $349.2M or $1.81/share in Q2), a 2026 margin per GEO of $4,352 (up 179% vs 2022), continued dividend payments ($84M this quarter), and ample firepower to pursue opportunities with $4.3B total available capital (cash $1.0B, $2.25B credit capacity including accordion, $1.2B marketable securities) while remaining debt‑free.Franco-Nevada Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
94
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.30B | 1.85B | 1.11B | 1.22B | 1.32B | 1.30B |
| Gross Profit | 1.78B | 1.37B | 759.30M | 766.60M | 852.60M | 822.10M |
| EBITDA | 2.09B | 1.63B | 989.30M | -91.00M | 1.12B | 1.09B |
| Net Income | 1.47B | 1.13B | 552.10M | -466.40M | 700.60M | 733.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.91B | 8.23B | 6.33B | 5.99B | 6.63B | 6.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.01B | 669.68M | 1.45B | 1.42B | 1.20B | 539.30M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 8.58M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.00M | 6.09M |
| Total Liabilities | 680.39M | 605.00M | 333.80M | 225.00M | 209.20M | 184.70M |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.23B | 7.62B | 6.00B | 5.77B | 6.42B | 6.03B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 948.67M | -715.31M | 421.50M | 469.60M | 858.00M | 194.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.89B | 1.52B | 829.50M | 991.20M | 999.50M | 955.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -694.99M | -2.07B | -537.30M | -541.10M | -145.50M | -765.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -318.28M | -272.08M | -240.40M | -230.10M | -189.00M | -180.20M |
Franco-Nevada Technical Analysis
Positive
376.36
Price Trends
323.24
Positive
319.18
Positive
322.68
Positive
Market Momentum
12.83
Positive
60.63
Neutral
49.13
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:FNV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 376.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 355.97, above the 50-day MA of 323.24, and above the 200-day MA of 322.68, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 12.83 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:FNV.
Franco-Nevada Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | C$21.05B | 13.38 | 26.09% | 0.39% | 46.49% | 237.61% | |
82 Outperform | C$49.37B | 11.54 | 35.75% | 0.51% | 38.09% | 110.34% | |
80 Outperform | C$70.17B | 34.65 | 19.08% | 0.64% | 71.54% | 85.90% | |
75 Outperform | C$97.13B | 34.68 | 22.96% | 0.48% | 88.63% | 156.74% | |
74 Outperform | C$20.87B | 18.23 | 26.18% | 2.30% | 27.09% | 253.66% | |
67 Neutral | C$9.48B | 24.47 | 21.84% | 0.62% | 67.65% | 254.59% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% |
* General Sector Average
TSE:FNV
Franco-Nevada
367.13
89.18
32.08%
TSE:K
Kinross Gold
41.75
9.76
30.51%
TSE:WPM
Wheaton Precious Metals
216.78
69.23
46.92%
TSE:AGI
Alamos Gold
51.07
5.66
12.48%
TSE:EDV
Endeavour Mining
87.14
35.14
67.56%
TSE:OR
OR Royalties
51.35
2.05
4.17%
Franco-Nevada Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Franco-Nevada Posts Record H1 and Strong Q2, Eyes Upper-End 2026 Guidance
Positive
Aug 11, 2026
Franco-Nevada reported sharply higher second-quarter 2026 results, driven by an 18% increase in gold equivalent ounces sold and stronger precious metal and oil prices. Precious metals contributed 86% of revenue, with particularly strong performanc...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.