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Alamos Gold
(TSX:AGI)
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Rating:82Outperform
Price Target:
C$49.00
▼(-6.77% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/21/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability and a low-leverage balance sheet), partially offset by weaker free-cash-flow conversion. The earnings call was net positive with maintained guidance, strong liquidity, and exploration/throughput progress, but highlighted meaningful near-term cost pressures and sustaining capital needs. Technicals are supportive but show signs of being stretched, while valuation is reasonable on P/E but offers minimal dividend support.
Positive Factors
Resource Growth
Substantial resource growth strengthens Alamos Gold’s operating pipeline and supports longer mine lives. The newly identified high-grade zone remains open, creating additional exploration upside and helping sustain production potential beyond currently defined reserves.
Negative Factors
Cost Inflation
Persistent labor and contractor inflation can compress margins even when production guidance is maintained. The added retention expense and higher underground development costs raise the cost base, making future profitability more dependent on operating execution and gold prices.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Resource Growth
Substantial resource growth strengthens Alamos Gold’s operating pipeline and supports longer mine lives. The newly identified high-grade zone remains open, creating additional exploration upside and helping sustain production potential beyond currently defined reserves.
Read all positive factors
Alamos Gold (AGI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$18.30B
Dividend Yield0.46%
Average Volume (3M)912.45K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.3
Beta (1Y)2.21
Revenue Growth46.49%
EPS Growth237.61%
CountryCA
Employees2,400
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.78
Shares Outstanding418,604,460
10 Day Avg. Volume733,261
30 Day Avg. Volume912,446
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.09
Price to Book (P/B)3.66
Price to Sales (P/S)8.82
P/FCF Ratio59.84
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$67.52Price Target Upside28.47% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)2.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$2.40B
Alamos Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alamos Gold Inc. operates as a gold producer in Canada and Mexico. It primarily explores for gold deposits. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Toronto, Canada....
How the Company Makes Money
Alamos Gold makes money primarily by producing gold from its mines and selling that gold into the commodities market. Revenue is recognized based on the quantity of metal sold and the realized gold price received under its sales arrangements (gene...
Alamos Gold Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call showcased substantial exploration and operational progress (notably resource growth, new high-grade discoveries, improving mining and milling rates, major organic projects and a strong $1.2 billion liquidity position). Those positives are, however, tempered by near-term cost pressures driven by contractor and labor inflation (a ~$90/oz increase and a ~$30/oz retention program), seismic-related rehabilitation at Young Davidson requiring enhanced ground support and added sustaining capital (~$10–15M/yr), and some timing-related deferrals (La Yaqui Grande ounces into 2027). Management believes the issues are manageable, actionable and largely near-term (retention accruals payable later, truck shop to reduce contractor reliance, rehabilitation and sequence changes to manage seismicity), and they maintained production guidance while tightening ranges.Positive Updates
District-scale Resource Growth and New High-Grade Discovery
Island Gold district resources have grown from less than 2 million ounces in 2017 to approaching 7 million ounces today (net of ~1.7 million ounces produced) — roughly a >3x increase. A newly discovered high-grade zone was reported between 250–500 meters west of existing reserves, measuring approximately 200 by 300 meters and remaining open down plunge and to the west.
Negative Updates
Labor and Contractor Inflation Increasing Unit Costs
Company disclosed a ~$90 per ounce rise in costs driven by contractor and labor inflation (contractors for underground development and open-pit equipment mechanics were notably higher than assumed). This inflationary pressure was more pronounced in Q2 and is expected to persist through the year.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
District-scale Resource Growth and New High-Grade Discovery
Island Gold district resources have grown from less than 2 million ounces in 2017 to approaching 7 million ounces today (net of ~1.7 million ounces produced) — roughly a >3x increase. A newly discovered high-grade zone was reported between 250–500 meters west of existing reserves, measuring approximately 200 by 300 meters and remaining open down plunge and to the west.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated near‑term operational and financial guidance with many concrete metrics: liquidity of $1.2 billion and a $920 million Lynn Lake project underway; labor/contractor inflation and retention measures are adding about $90/oz (of which ~$30/oz is a mid‑year Canada retention accrual), Island Gold unit costs were revised up (~+17% noted) while production guidance was unchanged and the overall 2026 range was tightened from +/-40k oz to +/-20k oz; Island Gold underground ramped from ~1.4k tpd (Q1) to 1.55k tpd (Q2) with a target of 2.0k tpd by year‑end, 2.4k tpd in 2027 and 3.0k tpd by 2029 (shaft infrastructure can handle ~5.5k tpd of ore+ waste and the ramp could add ~1.0k tpd from the Upper West zone); Magino mill throughput improved to ~9.8–10.0k tpd (June/July) and is planned to expand to 20k tpd (mill expansion targeted for completion in Q1 2028); district scale and exploration metrics include island district reserves/resources growing from <2.0M oz in 2017 to ~7.0M oz (net of ~1.7M oz produced), high‑grade intersections such as 178 g/t over 3.5 m and 68 g/t over 3.1 m, a new 200 x 300 m high‑grade zone 250–500 m west that remains open, Island Gold mineralization defined to 1.6 km depth, Cline Pick drilling to 540 m (open at depth), La Yaqui Grande recoveries expected ~85% with ounces deferred into 2027 (end‑of‑life stacking into Q1), Young Davidson rehabilitation of the 9.41k level to restore ~2.5k tpd near term and >7k tpd longer term, and growth capex timing such that H1 spend was <50% of full‑year guidance with spend accelerating in H2.Alamos Gold Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
90
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
92
Very Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.21B | 1.84B | 1.35B | 1.02B | 821.20M | 823.60M |
| Gross Profit | 1.33B | 980.26M | 595.80M | 385.60M | 212.30M | 289.50M |
| EBITDA | 1.59B | 1.09B | 735.00M | 486.40M | 279.60M | 175.36M |
| Net Income | 1.17B | 901.31M | 284.30M | 210.00M | 37.10M | -66.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.70B | 6.37B | 5.34B | 4.00B | 3.67B | 3.62B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 675.60M | 680.76M | 351.20M | 237.80M | 148.40M | 196.40M |
| Total Debt | 215.95M | 233.77M | 286.60M | 994.88K | 400.00K | 400.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 1.90B | 1.94B | 1.75B | 1.08B | 953.10M | 885.90M |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.80B | 4.44B | 3.58B | 2.92B | 2.72B | 2.74B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 315.36M | 271.17M | 235.80M | 123.80M | -15.20M | -7.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 967.68M | 789.18M | 661.10M | 472.70M | 298.50M | 356.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -479.72M | -345.75M | -467.10M | -351.80M | -312.70M | -357.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -192.90M | -143.16M | -89.40M | -26.00M | -28.40M | -47.30M |
Alamos Gold Technical Analysis
Negative
52.56
Price Trends
48.03
Negative
46.31
Negative
53.17
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.37
Positive
36.44
Neutral
17.99
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AGI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 52.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.12, above the 50-day MA of 48.03, and below the 200-day MA of 53.17, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.37 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.99 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:AGI.
Alamos Gold Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | C$18.30B | 11.30 | 26.09% | 0.46% | 46.49% | 237.61% | |
82 Outperform | C$21.12B | 16.07 | 81.63% | 6.50% | 35.61% | 49.78% | |
81 Outperform | C$13.69B | 8.58 | 28.08% | 5.79% | 83.00% | 41.80% | |
76 Outperform | C$12.55B | 11.99 | 12.38% | 0.65% | 27.53% | 41.90% | |
74 Outperform | C$18.23B | 15.19 | 26.18% | 3.27% | 27.09% | 253.66% | |
72 Outperform | C$17.10B | 9.93 | 13.71% | 0.49% | 62.66% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:AGI
Alamos Gold
43.71
-0.09
-0.21%
TSE:ELD
Eldorado Gold
48.03
13.27
38.20%
TSE:IMG
IAMGOLD
23.97
7.79
48.15%
TSE:LUG
Lundin Gold
87.34
4.70
5.69%
TSE:EDV
Endeavour Mining
75.52
20.75
37.89%
TSE:EQX
Equinox Gold
14.65
-0.31
-2.06%
Alamos Gold Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Alamos Gold Sets Date for Q3 2026 Results and Investor Call
Neutral
Sep 30, 2026
Alamos Gold Inc. has announced it will release its third quarter 2026 financial results after market close on October 28, 2026, followed by a senior management conference call on October 29, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET. The results presentation will be ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Alamos Gold Announces Board Change Following Kennedy Diplomatic Appointment
Neutral
Aug 31, 2026
Alamos Gold Inc. has announced a change to its board of directors with the departure of Claire M. C. Kennedy, effective August 31, 2026. Kennedy is stepping down following her appointment as Consul General of Canada in Chicago, a move that reflect...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividends
Alamos Gold Extends 17-Year Dividend Streak With New Quarterly Payout
Positive
Aug 27, 2026
Alamos Gold has declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.04 per common share, extending its 17-year history of regular payouts. Including this latest declaration, the company has returned US$106 million to shareholders so far in 2026 through a mix of...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.