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Lundin Gold
(TSX:LUG)
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Rating:82Outperform
Price Target:
C$122.00
▲(14.02% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
The score is driven primarily by outstanding financial performance (high margins, strong cash generation, and a debt-free balance sheet) and a constructive earnings call (reaffirmed guidance, low costs, strong liquidity, and sizable shareholder returns). These strengths are partly tempered by mixed technicals with near-term overbought signals and only moderate valuation support.
Positive Factors
Exceptional Profitability and Growth
Strong revenue scaling and unusually high operating margins demonstrate substantial earnings power. This provides resilience against cost pressure and supports continued funding of exploration, development and shareholder returns, although commodity prices remain influential.
Negative Factors
Gold Price and Commodity Sensitivity
Revenue is concentrated in gold produced from the Fruta del Norte mine, leaving cash flow and margins exposed to metal-price cycles. A sustained gold-price decline could weaken profitability, exploration funding and shareholder distributions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Exceptional Profitability and Growth
Strong revenue scaling and unusually high operating margins demonstrate substantial earnings power. This provides resilience against cost pressure and supports continued funding of exploration, development and shareholder returns, although commodity prices remain influential.
Read all positive factors
Lundin Gold (LUG) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$24.15B
Dividend Yield1.66%
Average Volume (3M)570.13K
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.7
Beta (1Y)2.13
Revenue Growth35.61%
EPS Growth49.78%
CountryCA
Employees1,893
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.87
Shares Outstanding241,832,730
10 Day Avg. Volume580,829
30 Day Avg. Volume570,126
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.28
Price to Book (P/B)14.70
Price to Sales (P/S)11.03
P/FCF Ratio20.75
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$103.00Price Target Upside-3.74% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)5.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$3.11B
Lundin Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lundin Gold Inc. is a Vancouver-based Canadian mining enterprise established in 1986. Its primary focus is on extensive exploration and development assets in Southeast Ecuador, where it controls rights to roughly 64,270 hectares. These holdings in...
How the Company Makes Money
Lundin Gold makes money primarily by producing and selling gold from its Fruta del Norte (FDN) underground mine. Ore mined at FDN is processed on site to produce a gold-rich concentrate (and/or doré, depending on the sales/refining route), which i...
Lundin Gold Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a broadly positive operational and financial performance: strong production and throughput, low unit costs, substantial operating cash flow and free cash flow, aggressive shareholder returns (100% of normalized free cash flow distributed), continued exploration success with high-grade drill hits and porphyry discoveries, and ongoing development work including a timely mine-to-mill study. Lowlights were mainly timing- or accounting-related (seasonal Q2 softness, planned maintenance downtime, sizable annual tax/profit-sharing payments, and potential reported earnings volatility from noncash fair value revaluations). Overall, the positives materially outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Production and Throughput
Q2 production of ~119,000 oz gold; year-to-date production ~239,000 oz (about 48% of the guidance midpoint of 500,000 oz). Processed just over 500,000 tonnes in Q2 with an average head grade of 8.3 g/t and recoveries just over 89%. Mill averaged ~5,500 tpd for the quarter with June averaging closer to 6,000 tpd, providing upside potential into H2.
Negative Updates
Seasonally Low Q2 Production and Planned Downtime
Management noted Q2 was expected and was the lowest production quarter of the year. The quarter included 9 days of planned mill maintenance which reduced throughput and ounces sold.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production and Throughput
Q2 production of ~119,000 oz gold; year-to-date production ~239,000 oz (about 48% of the guidance midpoint of 500,000 oz). Processed just over 500,000 tonnes in Q2 with an average head grade of 8.3 g/t and recoveries just over 89%. Mill averaged ~5,500 tpd for the quarter with June averaging closer to 6,000 tpd, providing upside potential into H2.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Lundin Gold reaffirmed 2026 guidance of 475,000–525,000 ounces of gold, noting Q2 (~119,000 oz) was the lowest quarter with year‑to‑date production ~239,000 oz (H1 = 48% of the midpoint); Q2 processed just over 500,000 tonnes at an average head grade of 8.3 g/t and recoveries just over 89%, averaging ~5,500 tpd (June ~6,000 tpd) despite 9 days of planned downtime and with a guided average of 5,500 tpd for the year. Cost and cash metrics were strong: cash operating costs $1,016/oz, AISC $1,176/oz (AISC margin ~73%), Q2 operating cash flow ~$125M, Q2 free cash flow $96M ($0.40/sh) after $221M of annual tax/profit‑sharing payments, H1 operating cash flow $495M, ending H1 cash $507M and working capital $445M. The company declared a Q2 dividend of $1.08/sh (YTD $2.29/sh), returned 100% of normalized free cash flow to shareholders, plans an NCIB, is on track to complete the mine‑to‑mill expansion study by year‑end with an integrated investment decision targeted late‑2026, and continues aggressive growth programs (record 133,000 m planned drilling in 2026 with ~54,000 m completed and 370 m of FDNS underground development in Q2).Lundin Gold Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
92
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
95
Very Positive
Cash Flow
88
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.02B | 1.81B | 1.19B | 902.52M | 815.67M | 733.33M |
| Gross Profit | 1.40B | 1.19B | 840.37M | 571.78M | 500.39M | 463.24M |
| EBITDA | 1.47B | 1.28B | 766.60M | 527.06M | 465.57M | 428.71M |
| Net Income | 936.13M | 806.02M | 426.05M | 179.46M | 73.56M | 221.43M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.60B | 1.78B | 1.53B | 1.47B | 1.67B | 1.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 507.13M | 629.03M | 349.20M | 268.02M | 363.40M | 262.61M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 305.65M | 667.97M | 739.98M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.06B | 422.26M | 311.18M | 512.40M | 816.78M | 870.64M |
| Stockholders Equity | 543.95M | 1.36B | 1.22B | 955.81M | 852.08M | 814.48M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 982.17M | 964.59M | 579.99M | 471.16M | 372.13M | 360.76M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.07B | 1.05B | 662.39M | 519.39M | 426.14M | 417.75M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -100.88M | -98.93M | -93.50M | -53.48M | -60.07M | -63.11M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -956.54M | -667.28M | -487.49M | -561.23M | -264.10M | -171.43M |
Lundin Gold Technical Analysis
Positive
107.00
Price Trends
86.88
Positive
85.94
Positive
94.41
Positive
Market Momentum
3.86
Positive
57.49
Neutral
44.88
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LUG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 107 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 97.22, above the 50-day MA of 86.88, and above the 200-day MA of 94.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:LUG.
Lundin Gold Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
87 Outperform | C$13.37B | 14.55 | 24.39% | 0.37% | 96.03% | 113.85% | |
82 Outperform | C$21.42B | 13.39 | 26.09% | 0.35% | 46.49% | 237.61% | |
82 Outperform | C$24.15B | 18.66 | 81.63% | 1.66% | 35.61% | 49.78% | |
81 Outperform | C$16.19B | 10.29 | 28.08% | 5.79% | 83.00% | 41.80% | |
74 Outperform | C$21.30B | 18.40 | 26.18% | 2.27% | 27.09% | 253.66% | |
72 Outperform | C$20.72B | 12.20 | 13.71% | 0.41% | 62.66% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:LUG
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.