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Saturn Oil & Gas
(TSX:SOIL)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
C$10.00
▲(66.67% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:10/20/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance, especially strong TTM operating and free cash flow, partially offset by meaningful leverage and historically volatile profitability. Technically, the uptrend is strong, but extremely overbought momentum signals raise pullback risk. Valuation is a headwind due to a relatively high P/E and no dividend yield data provided.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Strong operating and free cash flow provide internal funding for reinvestment, asset development, or debt reduction. Consistently positive cash generation since 2022 improves financial resilience and gives management flexibility across the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Material Leverage
Debt roughly equal to equity leaves Saturn more exposed to operating downturns and reduces financial flexibility. Elevated leverage can compete with development spending for available cash and makes the balance sheet more sensitive to weaker profitability over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation
Strong operating and free cash flow provide internal funding for reinvestment, asset development, or debt reduction. Consistently positive cash generation since 2022 improves financial resilience and gives management flexibility across the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Saturn Oil & Gas (SOIL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$1.69B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)618.59K
Price to Earnings (P/E)36.8
Beta (1Y)-0.40
Revenue Growth5.74%
EPS Growth-75.93%
CountryCA
Employees373
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.26
Shares Outstanding178,017,000
10 Day Avg. Volume688,351
30 Day Avg. Volume618,594
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.50
Price to Sales (P/S)0.53
P/FCF Ratio2.17
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$10.00Price Target Upside66.67% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.73
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.25B
Saturn Oil & Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. is a Canadian energy firm dedicated to acquiring, exploring, and developing crude oil and natural gas deposits. The company primarily concentrates its efforts on light crude oil assets, operating in diverse regions including ...
How the Company Makes Money
Saturn Oil & Gas makes money primarily by producing hydrocarbons from its owned and operated oil and gas properties and selling those volumes into the market. Its key revenue streams include: (1) Crude oil sales: The largest driver of revenue for ...
Saturn Oil & Gas Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: production and cash generation beat expectations, net debt was reduced, buybacks and disciplined capital allocation were emphasized, and high-performing wells demonstrated strong capital efficiency. Key negatives included realized and unrealized hedging losses that distorted reported earnings, contractual hedging coverage that limits upside in strong price rallies, seasonal drilling constraints and a potential refinancing cost. On balance, the highlights (consistent outperformance, deleveraging, buybacks, efficient well results and flexibility to accelerate capital) outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Production Outperformance
Q1 2026 production exceeded 43,100 BOE/day, beating analyst expectations for the seventh consecutive quarter and surpassing Saturn's quarterly guidance by more than 1,600 BOE/day.
Negative Updates
Realized and Unrealized Hedging Losses
Realized hedging loss of $21 million (≈ $5.45/BOE) in Q1 as market prices exceeded strike levels; a large unrealized hedging loss also materially impacted reported net income and EPS (noncash), creating volatility in reported earnings despite strong cash flows.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production Outperformance
Q1 2026 production exceeded 43,100 BOE/day, beating analyst expectations for the seventh consecutive quarter and surpassing Saturn's quarterly guidance by more than 1,600 BOE/day.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance reiterated that after a strong Q1 (production >43,100 BOE/d, beating guidance by >1,600 BOE/d; adjusted funds flow $170M or $0.59/share; free funds flow $62M; Q1 capex $45M for 23 gross wells; royalties ~11%; operating costs $20.49/BOE; realized hedging loss $21M or $5.45/BOE; net debt down 5% to ≈$725M), the company will accelerate ~$20M of H2 capital into Q2 so Q2 capex is now expected at $35–40M with quarterly volumes of ~40,000–41,000 bbl/d, target rigs returning late May–mid‑June to reach five rigs in Q2 (six after July) and bring forward ~10–12 Q3 wells plus 4–5 West Central wells; management said the 2026 budget was set on $60 WTI but could expand full‑year capex (up to roughly a 50% increase to about $300M) if oil holds in the mid‑ to upper‑$70s/$80s, while continuing to prioritize debt reduction, NCIB repurchases (181M shares outstanding; NCIB limit ~12.1M shares; Q1 repurchases ≈$12M/3.7M shares + $3.4M/600k since), maintaining ~50% rolling hedges (currently ~55–60%), and preserving liquidity (credit facility $150M with $14M drawn and accordion to $250M) with tax pools of ≈$1.6B deferring cash tax until 2028+.Saturn Oil & Gas Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
76
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.01B | 881.65M | 920.79M | 624.83M | 337.19M | 98.42M |
| Gross Profit | 397.07M | 232.93M | 577.69M | 270.83M | 247.64M | 56.03M |
| EBITDA | 388.39M | 608.25M | 405.17M | 567.87M | 144.85M | -40.28M |
| Net Income | 45.49M | 167.57M | 54.11M | 290.62M | 74.81M | -65.06M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.19B | 2.19B | 2.16B | 1.34B | 582.91M | 221.11M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 0.00 | 0.00 | 48.42M | 26.46M | 18.74M | 8.88M |
| Total Debt | 817.66M | 827.17M | 951.84M | 458.01M | 247.19M | 95.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.28B | 1.24B | 1.36B | 726.55M | 444.39M | 251.41M |
| Stockholders Equity | 909.29M | 946.59M | 803.97M | 608.66M | 138.52M | -30.31M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 205.43M | 216.16M | 65.62M | 153.41M | 13.21M | -9.98M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 442.36M | 457.40M | 311.94M | 283.99M | 102.31M | -1.28M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -338.20M | -374.39M | -749.53M | -576.40M | -318.24M | -87.86M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -153.41M | -131.43M | 459.55M | 308.62M | 223.76M | 90.99M |
Saturn Oil & Gas Technical Analysis
Positive
6.00
Price Trends
7.31
Positive
6.53
Positive
5.74
Positive
Market Momentum
0.74
Negative
74.31
Negative
86.31
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SOIL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.32, below the 50-day MA of 7.31, and above the 200-day MA of 5.74, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.74 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.31 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.31 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:SOIL.
Saturn Oil & Gas Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | C$576.06M | -0.64 | -94.31% | 50.00% | -52.12% | -57.79% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | C$1.69B | 36.78 | 5.02% | ― | 5.74% | -75.93% | |
64 Neutral | C$515.38M | 24.40 | 2.93% | 15.24% | -27.27% | -79.93% | |
61 Neutral | C$1.10B | 56.91 | 1.39% | 25.00% | -21.66% | ― | |
61 Neutral | C$1.30B | 29.66 | 6.18% | 3.98% | 2.63% | -18.64% | |
60 Neutral | C$571.52M | -43.06 | -3.81% | 5.22% | 78.72% | -219.22% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:SOIL
Saturn Oil & Gas
9.49
6.85
259.47%
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TSE:TAL
PetroTal Corp
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TSE:IPO
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Saturn Oil & Gas Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Saturn Oil & Gas to Acquire Corex Resources in $302 Million Light Oil Deal
Positive
Oct 19, 2026
Saturn Oil Gas Inc. has entered a definitive agreement to acquire privately held Corex Resources Ltd. for total consideration of $302 million in cash and shares, adding approximately 7,000 barrels per day of 100% light oil production in Southwest...
Financial Disclosures
Saturn Oil & Gas Sets November Dates for Q3 2026 Results and Investor Call
Neutral
Oct 16, 2026
Saturn Oil Gas Inc., a returns-driven Canadian energy company, specializes in developing high-quality, light oil-weighted assets in Saskatchewan and Alberta while pursuing accretive acquisitions. Its low-decline, free cash-flowing asset base supp...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Saturn Oil & Gas Moves to Fully Acquire Burgess Creek After Successful Takeover Bid
Positive
Aug 7, 2026
Saturn Oil Gas Inc. has moved to compulsorily acquire the remaining common shares of Burgess Creek Exploration Inc. after its takeover offer closed with more than 99.7% of Burgess Creek’s shares tendered. Burgess Creek, a privately held pro...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.