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Surge Energy (SGY) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:SGY

Surge Energy

(TSX:SGY)

Select Model
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:CAD 11.00â–²(2.14% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:11/06/26

The score is driven primarily by improving financial fundamentals (profitability rebound, manageable leverage, and strong operating cash flow), offset by weak technicals showing a pronounced downtrend and negative momentum. Valuation is mixed, with a strong ~5% dividend yield balanced against a relatively high ~23.6 P/E for a cyclical business.

Positive Factors
Improved profitabilityThe return to positive net income and healthy operating earnings indicates that the business has recovered from its 2024 loss year. This provides a stronger base for funding operations, maintaining assets, and supporting shareholder returns over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Cyclical profitabilityThe swing from a large 2022 profit to a 2024 loss and subsequent recovery demonstrates substantial earnings cyclicality. Such volatility makes sustainable profits harder to predict and can complicate capital allocation, dividend support, and investment planning.

Surge Energy (SGY) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%TSE:SGY+60.60%EWC+19.77%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
CAD 638.24M
Dividend Yield
4.83%
Average Volume (3M)
741.54K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
26.4
Beta (1Y)
0.04
Revenue Growth
11.69%
EPS Growth
-7.97%
Country
Canada
Employees
86
Sector
Energy
Sector Strength
65
Industry
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Surge Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Operating in western Canada, Surge Energy Inc. is engaged in the exploration, development, and production of petroleum and natural gas resources. Its portfolio includes significant interests in several key regions: the Greater Sawn Lake area in North...

Surge Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability has rebounded in the TTM period with positive net income and strong operating earnings, and leverage looks manageable (debt-to-equity ~0.31). Operating cash flow is robust and supports earnings, but results have been notably cyclical (including a loss in 2024) and recent free cash flow has softened versus prior periods.

Income Statement

67Positive

Balance Sheet

74Positive

Cash Flow

61Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue607.99M480.72M665.29M558.64M734.47M414.64M
Gross Profit259.97M114.28M356.90M348.63M464.61M243.96M
EBITDA315.07M276.59M163.24M253.67M333.70M537.13M
Net Income41.63M40.26M-53.72M15.75M231.72M407.61M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.39B1.32B1.37B1.48B1.55B1.28B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments50.63M18.65M7.59M000
Total Debt229.66M243.89M232.12M282.18M347.92M337.06M
Total Liabilities663.99M599.53M627.64M636.79M711.75M762.06M
Stockholders Equity728.46M724.98M738.51M843.98M838.32M513.38M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow108.53M100.42M83.54M84.57M106.18M-3.30M
Operating Cash Flow288.49M265.90M278.65M266.14M276.13M100.48M
Investing Cash Flow-166.99M-181.67M-153.00M-177.56M-332.27M-16.00M
Financing Cash Flow-91.36M-73.18M-118.05M-88.58M56.15M-84.48M

Surge Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price10.77

Price Trends

50DMA11.71Negative
100DMA10.80Negative
200DMA9.76Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-0.40Positive
RSI39.36Neutral
STOCH26.73Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SGY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.77 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.92, below the 50-day MA of 11.71, and above the 200-day MA of 9.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:SGY.

Surge Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

TSE:SGY against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
TSE:VLETSE:VLE72OutperformCAD 1.52B16.1611.82%―6.95%-71.15%
Sector *65Neutral$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
TSE:SOILTSE:SOIL63NeutralCAD 1.51B-286.67-0.71%―18.80%-106.58%
TSE:SGYTSE:SGY58NeutralCAD 1.05B26.415.77%4.83%11.69%-7.97%
TSE:OBETSE:OBE52NeutralCAD 892.18M36.521.81%―-5.74%―
TSE:TNZTSE:TNZ47NeutralCAD 1.63B77.162.96%―266.54%-90.85%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%100%200%300%TSE:SGYTSE:OBETSE:TNZTSE:VLETSE:SOILDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
TSE:SGY and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
TSE:SGYSurge Energy Inc10.774.0359.72%
TSE:OBEObsidian Energy Ltd13.875.0857.79%
TSE:TNZTenaz Energy Corp50.9824.7494.28%
TSE:VLEValeura Energy14.597.45104.34%
TSE:SOILSaturn Oil & Gas Inc.8.616.18254.32%

Surge Energy Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Surge Energy Reports Strong Oil Prices and October Production Growth

Positive
Nov 4, 2026

Surge Energy is a Canadian oil producer focused on crude oil operations in its Sparky (Mannville) and southeastern Saskatchewan core areas. The company benefited from elevated crude prices in the third quarter, with WTI averaging US$85.68 per barrel...

Business Operations and StrategyDividends

Surge Energy Confirms November Dividend on October Production

Positive
Oct 15, 2026

Surge Energy Inc. has confirmed a cash dividend of $0.043333 per share, payable on November 16, 2026, to shareholders of record as of October 31, 2026, in respect of its October 2026 production. The dividend, designated as an eligible dividend under...

Business Operations and StrategyDividends

Surge Energy Confirms September Dividend, Signals Confidence in Cash Flow

Positive
Aug 17, 2026

Surge Energy Inc. has confirmed a cash dividend of $0.043333 per share to be paid on September 15, 2026 to shareholders of record as of August 31, 2026, relating to August 2026 production. The dividend has been designated an eligible dividend under C...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 06, 2026