Want to see TSE:CNR full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Canadian National Railway
(TSX:CNR)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
C$208.00
â–²(18.34% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/26/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance (strong margins and high-quality cash earnings) and supportive technical momentum with the stock in a clear uptrend. Raised guidance and generally positive earnings-call execution further bolster the outlook. The main constraints are premium valuation (P/E 23.48) and financial risks flagged in the fundamentals/call, notably weaker recent free cash flow and higher leverage versus prior years.
Positive Factors
Network growth and pricing
Volume expansion combined with stronger revenue per RTM indicates continued network relevance and pricing execution. A broad freight base and cross-border reach can support durable revenue growth as CN captures demand across industrial, consumer and bulk markets.
Negative Factors
Higher leverage
Rising leverage reduces financial flexibility if freight demand weakens or costs increase. It can constrain investment, shareholder returns and resilience during an industrial downturn, even though current profitability and debt metrics remain manageable.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Network growth and pricing
Volume expansion combined with stronger revenue per RTM indicates continued network relevance and pricing execution. A broad freight base and cross-border reach can support durable revenue growth as CN captures demand across industrial, consumer and bulk markets.
Read all positive factors
Canadian National Railway (CNR) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$102.63B
Dividend Yield2.14%
Average Volume (3M)1.40M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.8
Beta (1Y)0.74
Revenue Growth3.60%
EPS Growth7.31%
CountryCA
Employees23,825
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.79
Shares Outstanding605,147,900
10 Day Avg. Volume1,704,105
30 Day Avg. Volume1,403,539
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.25
Price to Book (P/B)3.92
Price to Sales (P/S)4.89
P/FCF Ratio24.94
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$187.81Price Target Upside6.85% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)8.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$18.51B
Canadian National Railway Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Canadian National Railway (CN), along with its affiliated companies, specializes in railroad operations and integrated transportation services. The company handles a wide variety of commodities, including energy products like petroleum and chemica...
How the Company Makes Money
CN primarily makes money by charging customers freight rates to move goods over its rail network. Its revenue model is based on transporting multiple categories of freight and providing associated rail logistics services. Key revenue streams inclu...
Canadian National Railway Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 24, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: strong top-line growth (revenues +11% on RTMs +5%), double-digit adjusted EPS growth, record fuel efficiency, material productivity gains and nearly $100M of realized Fast Track savings. Management raised guidance and announced strategic commercial agreements with UP that extend network reach and mitigate merger-related risks. Offsetting items include higher fuel expense (raising OR by ~210 bps), increased purchased services and advisory costs, segment-specific softness (overseas intermodal, Canadian coal), wildfire monitoring and macro/FX/tariff uncertainties. On balance, positive operational execution and raised guidance outweigh the challenges.Positive Updates
Earnings Per Share Growth
Reported diluted EPS of $2.06 (up 10% YoY); adjusted diluted EPS of $2.08 (up 11% YoY) and $2.09 (up 12% YoY on an FX-adjusted basis). Management highlighted EPS growth of ~12% FX-adjusted on 5% RTM volume growth.
Negative Updates
Operating Ratio Deterioration and Fuel Impact
Adjusted operating ratio worsened to 62.2% (up 50 basis points YoY). Higher fuel prices in the quarter produced an unfavorable impact of ~210 basis points on the operating ratio despite record fuel efficiency.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Earnings Per Share Growth
Reported diluted EPS of $2.06 (up 10% YoY); adjusted diluted EPS of $2.08 (up 11% YoY) and $2.09 (up 12% YoY on an FX-adjusted basis). Management highlighted EPS growth of ~12% FX-adjusted on 5% RTM volume growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
CN raised its 2026 outlook: management now assumes low single‑digit RTM growth and expects mid‑ to high‑single‑digit adjusted diluted EPS growth for the year. Second‑quarter results helped drive the revision — reported diluted EPS was $2.06 (+10% y/y), adjusted diluted EPS $2.08 (+11% y/y; $2.09 or +12% FX‑adjusted), adjusted operating ratio 62.2% (up 50 bps y/y, with fuel having a 210‑bp dilutive impact), fuel expense ~+$250M y/y, labor +3% (including ~$40M higher incentive comp) despite ~5% lower headcount, and year‑to‑date free cash flow up ~20% (~$300M); leverage was 2.6x at Q2 and CN is maintaining a 2.7x adjusted debt/EBITDA target while remaining opportunistic on buybacks. For the balance of 2026 CN assumes WTI $80–$110/bbl, updated FX at CAD$0.71/USD (previously $0.73), an effective tax rate of 25–26%, and sees a potential Q3 fuel tailwind of roughly $0.15 EPS (~100 bps OR improvement) and a Q4 tailwind of ~$0.10 (~30 bps).Canadian National Railway Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 17.76B | 17.30B | 17.05B | 16.83B | 17.11B | 14.48B |
| Gross Profit | 7.50B | 7.76B | 9.31B | 9.45B | 9.62B | 8.11B |
| EBITDA | 9.12B | 9.12B | 8.67B | 8.89B | 9.07B | 7.61B |
| Net Income | 4.78B | 4.72B | 4.45B | 5.63B | 5.12B | 4.90B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 60.09B | 58.55B | 57.07B | 52.67B | 50.66B | 48.54B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 294.00M | 363.00M | 389.00M | 475.00M | 328.00M | 838.00M |
| Total Debt | 22.62B | 21.84B | 21.37B | 18.89B | 15.89B | 12.91B |
| Total Liabilities | 38.19B | 36.99B | 36.02B | 32.55B | 29.28B | 25.79B |
| Stockholders Equity | 21.90B | 21.57B | 21.05B | 20.12B | 21.38B | 22.74B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.55B | 3.39B | 3.15B | 3.78B | 3.92B | 4.08B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.02B | 7.05B | 6.70B | 6.96B | 6.67B | 6.97B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.39B | -3.71B | -3.61B | -3.47B | -2.51B | -2.87B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.98B | -3.37B | -3.62B | -3.41B | -4.67B | -3.86B |
Canadian National Railway Technical Analysis
Positive
175.77
Price Trends
174.99
Negative
166.70
Positive
152.67
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.87
Positive
42.74
Neutral
24.41
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CNR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 175.77 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 172.39, above the 50-day MA of 174.99, and above the 200-day MA of 152.67, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.87 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CNR.
Canadian National Railway Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | C$102.63B | 21.77 | 22.19% | 2.14% | 3.60% | 7.31% | |
71 Outperform | C$108.87B | 26.29 | 8.35% | 0.77% | 3.57% | -4.13% | |
64 Neutral | C$646.70M | 9.89 | 12.07% | 4.69% | -4.10% | 82.03% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | C$12.20B | 22.33 | 19.22% | 1.34% | 0.31% | 18.50% | |
60 Neutral | C$14.94B | 29.72 | 12.39% | 1.43% | -2.61% | -6.43% |
* Industrials Sector Average
TSE:CNR
Canadian National Railway
169.81
41.60
32.45%
TSE:CP
Canadian Pacific Kansas City
124.99
21.33
20.57%
TSE:TFII
TFI International
183.15
55.11
43.04%
TSE:FTT
Finning International
92.08
34.39
59.60%
TSE:WJX
Wajax Corporation
29.69
7.07
31.23%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.