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Cargojet
(TSX:CJT)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
C$84.00
▼(-1.33% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is driven primarily by mid-range financial performance: solid operating profitability and operating cash flow, but tempered by margin compression, leverage, and uneven free-cash-flow conversion. Technicals are supportive with price above key moving averages and neutral-to-positive momentum. Valuation is a headwind due to a higher P/E despite a moderate dividend yield, while the earnings call adds a modest positive tilt on improved free cash flow and continued operational momentum amid identifiable cost and fuel risks.
Positive Factors
Underlying revenue growth and operating profitability
Underlying revenue growth excluding fuel effects indicates improving demand and organic business momentum. Combined with a 31.7% adjusted EBITDA margin, this supports durable operating economics and gives Cargojet capacity to fund fleet, network, and service investments.
Negative Factors
Meaningful leverage and weaker shareholder returns
Elevated leverage limits financial flexibility and increases the importance of sustained operating cash generation. The decline in ROE also indicates that the larger capital base is producing weaker returns, which may constrain growth investments and shareholder distributions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Underlying revenue growth and operating profitability
Underlying revenue growth excluding fuel effects indicates improving demand and organic business momentum. Combined with a 31.7% adjusted EBITDA margin, this supports durable operating economics and gives Cargojet capacity to fund fleet, network, and service investments.
Read all positive factors
Cargojet (CJT) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$1.17B
Dividend Yield1.93%
Average Volume (3M)186.44K
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.7
Beta (1Y)1.73
Revenue Growth0.80%
EPS Growth-66.47%
CountryCA
Employees1,847
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.09
Shares Outstanding14,799,859
10 Day Avg. Volume256,876
30 Day Avg. Volume186,441
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.74
Price to Book (P/B)1.73
Price to Sales (P/S)1.29
P/FCF Ratio-12.65
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$121.17Price Target Upside42.33% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)3.52
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.10B
Cargojet Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Cargojet Inc. specializes in express overnight air freight delivery, primarily serving Canada. The company's business activities include managing a domestic air cargo network that connects fourteen cities across North America. It also leases dedic...
How the Company Makes Money
Cargojet primarily makes money by selling air cargo transportation capacity and associated logistics services. Its key revenue streams generally include: (1) Scheduled domestic air cargo services: Cargojet operates an overnight air network within ...
Cargojet Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial result: solid revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, a meaningful free-cash-flow turnaround, improved fleet utilization through the One Fleet strategy, and successful international expansion (Liège–Tel Aviv). These positives are tempered by clear near-term headwinds — higher fuel-driven margin noise, a materially more expensive pilot agreement (with partial productivity offsets), a YoY decline in the ACMI segment, and ongoing macro/geopolitical uncertainty. Management outlined mitigation paths (customer pass-throughs, productivity gains, disciplined CapEx and ROIC focus) that, if realized, support a constructive outlook.Positive Updates
Strong Quarter — Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA
Revenue of $275.8 million and adjusted EBITDA of $87.3 million, both improved sequentially and year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 31.7% (after accounting for ~260 basis points of temporary compression from fuel surcharges, core business margin showed a slight YoY improvement).
Negative Updates
Fuel Price Headwinds and Temporary Margin Dilution
Rising fuel prices and geopolitical tension increased fuel surcharges, which diluted reported adjusted EBITDA margin by approximately 260 basis points in Q2 (management expects surcharges to flow through revenue and not materially change long-term profitability but created near-term margin noise).
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Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarter — Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA
Revenue of $275.8 million and adjusted EBITDA of $87.3 million, both improved sequentially and year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 31.7% (after accounting for ~260 basis points of temporary compression from fuel surcharges, core business margin showed a slight YoY improvement).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Cargojet’s call provided directional guidance and metrics showing continued momentum: Q2 FY2026 revenue was $275.8M (or $250.1M excluding fuel surcharges, +5% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $87.3M with an adjusted margin of 31.7% (noting ~260 bps temporary compression from higher fuel surcharges), domestic overnight revenue (net of fuel) $104.9M (+3% YoY), hybrid ACMI $54.7M (–12% YoY), charter revenue $54.7M (+37% YoY), free cash flow $56.2M (vs. a $72.5M outflow in Q2 2025), leverage 2.6x (target: <2.5x), and 121,390 shares repurchased in Q2; management expects domestic strength to continue into Q3/Q4, plans to pass through pilot cost increases (wages +26% effective July 1, 2026 then +5% p.a. through June 30, 2031) with productivity offsets (baseline moving 15→16 working days/month — ~6% benefit plus incremental training days and ~6,000 additional crew days annually), notes wage-driven costs are ~60–65% of crew costs, and CapEx now includes ~$10–15M in 2026 and ~$5M in 2027 for one 767‑200 conversion.Cargojet Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.04B | 992.70M | 1.00B | 877.50M | 979.90M | 757.80M |
| Gross Profit | 194.50M | 197.10M | 225.80M | 138.10M | 247.50M | 232.40M |
| EBITDA | 323.50M | 331.50M | 333.90M | 265.70M | 373.00M | 328.80M |
| Net Income | 46.50M | 80.20M | 108.40M | 37.30M | 190.60M | 167.40M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.03B | 2.13B | 1.93B | 2.04B | 1.99B | 1.49B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.00M | 6.70M | 1.50M | 31.80M | 6.10M | 94.70M |
| Total Debt | 875.80M | 1.15B | 755.10M | 799.20M | 707.00M | 398.60M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.29B | 1.39B | 1.19B | 1.25B | 1.15B | 813.40M |
| Stockholders Equity | 734.30M | 742.40M | 737.70M | 784.50M | 831.50M | 676.40M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 85.30M | -101.50M | 78.60M | -73.90M | -328.70M | -32.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 307.90M | 234.60M | 328.60M | 192.80M | 282.50M | 245.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -160.90M | -349.60M | -142.70M | -127.50M | -615.10M | -280.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -148.00M | 120.20M | -216.20M | -39.60M | 244.00M | 126.40M |
Cargojet Technical Analysis
Negative
85.13
Price Trends
85.96
Negative
83.85
Negative
84.85
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.66
Positive
32.02
Neutral
9.55
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CJT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 85.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 86.13, below the 50-day MA of 85.96, and above the 200-day MA of 84.85, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.66 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.55 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CJT.
Cargojet Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | C$103.23B | 21.73 | 22.19% | 2.15% | 3.60% | 7.31% | |
63 Neutral | C$2.48B | 22.85 | 9.35% | 3.25% | 8.87% | -1.05% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | C$8.04B | 20.15 | 16.92% | ― | 5.63% | -65.53% | |
61 Neutral | C$1.17B | 24.68 | 6.30% | 1.93% | 0.80% | -66.47% | |
60 Neutral | C$15.58B | 30.44 | 12.39% | 1.40% | -2.61% | -6.43% | |
46 Neutral | C$362.92M | -11.11 | -36.18% | ― | 7.58% | 20.00% |
* Industrials Sector Average
TSE:CJT
Cargojet
76.25
-22.63
-22.88%
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TSE:FLT
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Cargojet Corporate Events
Dividends
Cargojet Declares Eligible Quarterly Dividend for Q3 2026
Positive
Aug 10, 2026
Cargojet’s board has declared a cash dividend of $0.385 per common and variable voting share for the quarter covering July 1 to September 30, 2026. The payout, designated as an eligible dividend under Canadian tax law, will go to shareholder...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Cargojet Delivers Strong Q2 Revenue Growth and Cash Flow Turnaround
Positive
Aug 10, 2026
Cargojet reported a strong second quarter, with total revenue rising 15.8% year-over-year to $275.8 million and a swing to net earnings of $7.0 million from a loss a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 8.9% to $87.3 million and free cash flow im...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.