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Cogeco Inc. SV
(TSX:CGO)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
C$64.00
â–²(13.68% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/17/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance: strong operating/free cash flow is outweighed by very high leverage and a sharp recent earnings/revenue deterioration. Valuation is a clear positive (low P/E and high dividend yield), but technical signals remain weak-to-neutral (below major moving averages, negative MACD). The latest earnings call adds a balanced view—good cash flow and debt management progress, but significant ongoing U.S. pressure and impairment-related concerns.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Sustained free cash flow (CAD 169M Q3; CAD 450M YTD) provides durable internal funding for debt reduction, targeted capex, dividends and strategic initiatives. Strong cash conversion buffers the business against earnings volatility and supports multi-quarter deleveraging plans.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Very high debt-to-equity (4x–6x+) and a thinner equity base materially constrain financial flexibility. Elevated leverage raises refinancing, interest and covenant risk, limits strategic optionality, and makes the company vulnerable to cyclical operating setbacks over the medium term.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Sustained free cash flow (CAD 169M Q3; CAD 450M YTD) provides durable internal funding for debt reduction, targeted capex, dividends and strategic initiatives. Strong cash conversion buffers the business against earnings volatility and supports multi-quarter deleveraging plans.
Read all positive factors
Cogeco Inc. SV (CGO) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$544.53M
Dividend Yield6.99%
Average Volume (3M)30.81K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.48
Revenue Growth-4.64%
EPS Growth-491.61%
CountryCA
Employees4,400
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryTelecommunications Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-36.13
Shares Outstanding8,040,562
10 Day Avg. Volume24,409
30 Day Avg. Volume30,806
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.88
Price to Book (P/B)0.67
Price to Sales (P/S)0.19
P/FCF Ratio1.11
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$74.00Price Target Upside31.44% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)9.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$2.81B
Cogeco Inc. SV Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Headquartered in Montreal, Canada, Cogeco Inc. is an enterprise that operates in the communication and media sectors across both Canada and the United States, primarily through its subsidiary companies. Its operations are divided into two main cat...
How the Company Makes Money
Cogeco primarily makes money by selling subscription-based telecommunications services delivered over its cable/broadband networks. The largest revenue stream is typically recurring monthly fees from customers for high-speed internet access; addit...
Cogeco Inc. SV Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 15, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call contained a mix of operational wins—notably strong free cash flow, steady Canadian EBITDA growth, traction in digital and wireless brands (OXIO and Welo), and tax/balance sheet actions—alongside significant U.S. challenges, highlighted by a large non-cash impairment, continued ARPU pressure, and near-term subscriber losses in the U.S. Management emphasized multi-quarter fixes (wireless, Welo, AI/transformation) and capital optimization, but expects the U.S. to remain a drag in the near term. Overall the positives (cash generation and Canadian performance/strategic initiatives) are balanced by material U.S. negatives (impairment and ongoing decline), resulting in a balanced/neutral tone.Positive Updates
Strong Free Cash Flow Generation
Generated CAD 169 million in free cash flow in Q3 and a cumulative CAD 450 million after three quarters, attributed to transformation initiatives and tight capital allocation discipline.
Negative Updates
Significant U.S. Impairment Charge
Recorded a non-cash impairment related to U.S. assets: CAD 1.8 billion (reported) and CAD 2.2 billion on a pretax basis (figures also quoted in USD ~$1.3B–$1.6B), primarily impacting goodwill, reflecting weaker U.S. outlook and peer valuation declines.
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Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Free Cash Flow Generation
Generated CAD 169 million in free cash flow in Q3 and a cumulative CAD 450 million after three quarters, attributed to transformation initiatives and tight capital allocation discipline.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated the April financial guidelines (provided in constant currency) while flagging key assumptions and near-term expectations: consolidated free cash flow was CAD 169M in Q3 and CAD 450M year-to-date, consolidated debt leverage was 3.2x at Q3-end and the company repurchased $21M (US) of Term Loan B with plans to continue U.S. TLB repurchases, and Cogeco Inc. recorded a pre-tax CAD 26M radio impairment. They recorded a non‑cash impairment of CAD 1.8B (USD 1.3B) — CAD 2.2B pre‑tax (USD 1.6B) — on U.S. assets; a retroactive current tax adjustment of CAD 4.5M (on top of CAD 14.8M last quarter) leads to a revised fiscal‑2026 current income tax assumption of CAD 25M (vs ~CAD 40M previously; current effective rate ~8.5%). Operationally, Canada is expected to deliver slightly positive y/y revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth (Q3 benefited from some non‑recurring cost items), the U.S. is expected to see Q4 revenue and adjusted EBITDA declines in USD (but at a smaller percentage than the first three quarters), consolidated CapEx should rise in Q4 vs Q3, and management targets sub‑20% CapEx intensity over the medium term (historically ~18%–19%; 17%–19% cited as a placeholder for FY27+).Cogeco Inc. SV Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
32
Negative
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Aug 2025 | Aug 2024 | Aug 2023 | Aug 2022 | Aug 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.90B | 3.01B | 3.07B | 3.08B | 3.00B | 2.60B |
| Gross Profit | 1.87B | 862.44M | 904.15M | 3.08B | 779.99M | 1.22B |
| EBITDA | -851.11M | 1.42B | 1.37B | 1.31B | 1.37B | 1.22B |
| Net Income | -342.01M | 84.97M | 96.75M | 70.63M | 149.11M | 141.86M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.57B | 9.79B | 9.77B | 9.87B | 9.47B | 7.54B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 77.42M | 75.58M | 77.75M | 363.85M | 251.15M | 368.43M |
| Total Debt | 4.63B | 4.71B | 4.98B | 5.11B | 4.75B | 3.33B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.67B | 6.19B | 6.39B | 6.43B | 6.20B | 4.64B |
| Stockholders Equity | 481.11M | 862.95M | 810.44M | 925.86M | 919.84M | 816.66M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 368.40M | 515.17M | 521.15M | 101.98M | 274.75M | 436.05M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 933.71M | 1.13B | 1.19B | 968.21M | 1.26B | 1.03B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -576.34M | -586.48M | -848.34M | -957.88M | -2.41B | -802.71M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -524.91M | -539.26M | -620.09M | -32.84M | 970.90M | -73.41M |
Cogeco Inc. SV Technical Analysis
Negative
56.30
Price Trends
59.23
Negative
60.82
Negative
63.09
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.89
Negative
40.99
Neutral
39.18
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CGO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 56.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.14, below the 50-day MA of 59.23, and below the 200-day MA of 63.09, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.89 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CGO.
Cogeco Inc. SV Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | C$28.18B | 4.49 | 32.78% | 3.86% | 8.73% | 302.65% | |
71 Outperform | C$14.15B | 15.33 | 35.86% | 2.62% | 3.12% | 24.49% | |
70 Outperform | C$14.15B | 15.33 | 35.86% | 2.50% | 3.12% | 24.49% | |
67 Neutral | C$30.58B | 4.86 | 27.73% | 5.34% | 1.59% | 1374.54% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
59 Neutral | C$2.56B | -2.29 | -38.76% | 6.53% | -4.86% | -440.35% | |
55 Neutral | C$544.53M | -1.56 | -43.86% | 6.99% | -4.64% | -491.61% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
TSE:CGO
Cogeco Inc. SV
56.47
-0.88
-1.53%
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BCE
32.79
0.83
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TSE:CCA
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60.48
-0.28
-0.45%
TSE:QBR.B
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63.94
21.29
49.93%
Cogeco Inc. SV Corporate Events
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
BlackRock Raises Stake in Caledonia Mining to 6.18%
Positive
Jul 16, 2026
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc has disclosed that asset manager BlackRock, Inc. has crossed a regulatory threshold in its shareholding, triggering a notification under the AIM Rules for Companies. As of July 14, 2026, BlackRock holds 6.18% of Ca...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.