Spin Master (TOY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$2.02B
• Dividend Yield: 2.3%
• Average Volume (3M): 154.25K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.06
• Revenue Growth: 3.71%
• EPS Growth: 80.35%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 3,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): 1.56
• Shares Outstanding: 32,700,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 148,895
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 154,246
• PEG Ratio: -0.66
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.73
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.07
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.56
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$26.80
• Price Target Upside: 34.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: C$23.00 ▲(15.00% Upside)

Spin Master's overall stock score reflects a stable financial position and reasonable valuation, but is tempered by challenges in revenue growth and profitability. The earnings call highlighted strategic strengths and market share gains, yet significant risks remain due to declining toy sales and economic uncertainties. Technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook with potential bearish momentum.

Positive Factors

Digital Games Growth

The significant growth in digital games revenue indicates strong demand and effective monetization strategies, enhancing long-term revenue diversification and resilience against cyclical toy sales.

License Business Expansion

Expansion in the licensing business through strategic partnerships strengthens brand presence and creates additional revenue streams, supporting long-term growth and market positioning.

Cost Synergies

Realizing cost synergies enhances operational efficiency and profitability, enabling Spin Master to reinvest in growth initiatives and improve competitive positioning over the long term.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

The decline in revenue highlights challenges in adapting to changing market conditions, potentially impacting long-term sales growth and necessitating strategic adjustments.

Adjusted EBITDA Decline

A significant decline in adjusted EBITDA reflects pressures on profitability, which could hinder the company's ability to fund future growth initiatives and maintain competitive advantage.

Entertainment Revenue Decrease

The decrease in entertainment revenue suggests challenges in content monetization, which could affect the company's ability to leverage its entertainment segment for brand synergy and growth.

Spin Master Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Spin Master Corp., a children's entertainment company, creates, designs, manufactures, licenses, and markets various toys, entertainment franchises, and digital games in North America, Europe, and internationally. Its product categories include activities, games and puzzles, and plush; preschool, dolls, and interactive; wheels and action; and outdoor. The company offers its products under the PAW Patrol, Bakugan, Kinetic Sand, Air Hogs, Hatchimals, Rubik's Cube, GUND, Toca Boca, Sago Mini, Etch A Sketch, Meccano, and Orbeez brands. It also produced television, video-on-demand, subscription video-on-demand, and movies. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Spin Master generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling its toy and game products to retailers and distributors around the globe. The company has a robust presence in both traditional retail and e-commerce channels, allowing it to capitalize on a wide range of market opportunities. In addition to product sales, Spin Master earns revenue from licensing agreements, where it licenses its intellectual property for use in other media such as television shows and films. Significant partnerships, including collaborations with major entertainment networks for animated series based on its toy lines, further contribute to its earnings by promoting brand awareness and driving merchandise sales. The company's ability to innovate and create engaging content around its products also plays a crucial role in attracting consumers and sustaining revenue growth.

Spin Master Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Spin Master demonstrates a stable financial position with efficient cost management and moderate leverage. However, challenges in revenue growth and profitability are evident, with declining net profit margins and negative free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

Spin Master shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The company has a solid gross profit margin of 54.02% TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has declined to 3.93% TTM, reflecting challenges in maintaining profitability. Revenue growth is negative at -0.49% TTM, suggesting a potential slowdown in sales. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively stable, but the declining revenue growth and net profit margin are areas of concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.40 TTM, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity is 6.54% TTM, which is lower than previous years, suggesting reduced efficiency in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is healthy, showing a strong capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet is stable, but the declining ROE is a point to monitor.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges in free cash flow growth, which is negative at -5.30% TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.39 TTM, indicating moderate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.58 TTM, showing a decent conversion of earnings to cash. While cash flow generation is adequate, the negative growth in free cash flow is concerning.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.29B	2.26B	1.90B	2.02B	2.04B	1.57B
Gross Profit	1.24B	1.19B	1.04B	1.10B	1.06B	727.90M
EBITDA	315.60M	279.50M	302.90M	334.70M	325.60M	107.90M
Net Income	90.20M	81.90M	151.40M	261.30M	198.60M	45.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.52B	2.63B	1.99B	1.81B	1.74B	1.34B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	128.00M	233.50M	705.70M	644.30M	562.70M	320.60M
Total Debt	531.50M	534.40M	62.10M	71.20M	73.00M	74.40M
Total Liabilities	1.18B	1.23B	570.60M	553.30M	684.30M	499.20M
Stockholders Equity	1.33B	1.40B	1.42B	1.25B	1.05B	842.90M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	283.28M	279.88M	202.23M	212.48M	385.02M	304.50M
Operating Cash Flow	321.25M	312.25M	230.68M	241.98M	410.98M	326.56M
Investing Cash Flow	-148.05M	-1.02B	-137.80M	-106.05M	-151.22M	-89.21M
Financing Cash Flow	-207.10M	257.23M	-44.51M	-19.70M	-16.32M	-17.13M

Spin Master Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 20.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TOY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 20 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.83, below the 50-day MA of 20.71, and below the 200-day MA of 23.88, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:TOY.

Spin Master Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WPK	75 Outperform	C$2.52B	13.28	10.45%	7.53%	3.19%	-0.26%
RCH	69 Neutral	C$2.10B	24.87	9.00%	1.65%	6.61%	-4.81%
LNR	68 Neutral	$4.49B	21.39	3.61%	1.44%	-2.60%	-64.22%
TOY	66 Neutral	C$2.02B	25.82	6.75%	2.30%	3.71%	80.35%
PET	63 Neutral	C$2.04B	22.16	106.59%	1.72%	5.09%	14.05%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
DOO	54 Neutral	$6.53B	―	38.70%	0.97%	-13.78%	-115.58%

Spin Master Corporate Events

Spin Master Faces Q3 Revenue Decline Amid Toy Sales Drop

Spin Master reported a decline in its Q3 2025 financial results, with revenue decreasing by 17% to $734.7 million, primarily due to a drop in toy sales amid an uncertain macroeconomic environment and shifting retailer buying behaviors. Despite the challenges, the company saw strong performance in its digital games segment and remains optimistic about future growth, supported by strategic investments and a robust lineup for the holiday season.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TOY) stock is a Buy with a C$29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Spin Master stock, see the TSE:TOY Stock Forecast page.

Spin Master Schedules Q3 2025 Financial Results Conference Call

Spin Master Corp. has announced a conference call to discuss its third quarter 2025 financial results, scheduled for October 30, 2025. The call will be led by CEO Christina Miller and CFO Jonathan Roiter, providing insights into the company’s performance and strategic direction. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it offers an opportunity to assess Spin Master’s financial health and market positioning, potentially impacting investor decisions and company operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TOY) stock is a Buy with a C$27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Spin Master stock, see the TSE:TOY Stock Forecast page.

Spin Master to Engage Investors at CIBC Conference

Spin Master Corp. announced its participation in the 24th Annual CIBC Eastern Institutional Investor Conference in Montreal, where it will engage with institutional investors and participate in a fireside chat featuring CEO Christina Miller and CFO Jonathan Roiter. This participation underscores Spin Master’s active engagement with the investment community, potentially enhancing its visibility and investor relations, which could impact its market positioning and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TOY) stock is a Hold with a C$24.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Spin Master stock, see the TSE:TOY Stock Forecast page.

Spin Master Corp. Navigates Mixed Earnings Call

Spin Master Corp.’s recent earnings call presented a mixed bag of results, reflecting both achievements and challenges. The company reported substantial growth in its Digital Games segment and an expansion in its license business. However, these positive developments were tempered by a decline in overall revenue, reduced EBITDA, and lower entertainment revenue. The integration of Melissa & Doug has yielded positive outcomes, yet the company faces headwinds from tariffs and shifting retailer behaviors. Spin Master is channeling its efforts into innovation and market share growth to navigate these challenges.

Spin Master Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results Amid Revenue Challenges

Spin Master reported a 2.7% decrease in Q2 2025 revenue, primarily due to a decline in Toy Revenue, though this was partially offset by strong growth in the Digital Games segment. Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, Spin Master maintained market share in its Toy segment and continued to grow its Digital Games, driven by its Toca Boca World and Piknik platforms. The company achieved cost synergies from the Melissa & Doug acquisition and made progress on its tariff mitigation plan, positioning itself to navigate economic uncertainties.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TOY) stock is a Buy with a C$46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Spin Master stock, see the TSE:TOY Stock Forecast page.