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Canadian Natural (TSE:CNQ)
TSX:CNQ
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Canadian Natural (CNQ) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:CNQ

Canadian Natural

(TSX:CNQ)

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Outperform 80 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
C$52.00
â–˛(17.12% Upside)
Canadian Natural's strong earnings call and attractive valuation are the most significant factors driving the overall score. The company's robust financial performance and positive technical indicators further support a favorable outlook, despite minor challenges in revenue growth and specific operational areas.
Positive Factors
Record Production Levels
Record production levels indicate strong operational capabilities and resource management, enhancing long-term revenue potential and market position.
Successful Acquisitions
Strategic acquisitions expand resource base and production capacity, supporting growth and competitive advantage in the energy sector.
Dividend Growth
Consistent dividend growth reflects strong cash flow generation and management's commitment to shareholder returns, enhancing investor confidence.
Negative Factors
Pelican Lake Production Decrease
Declining production at Pelican Lake due to maintenance and natural declines could impact future revenue and operational efficiency.
Operational Challenges in Oil Sands
Operational inefficiencies in oil sands may increase costs and hinder profitability, affecting long-term competitive positioning.
Price Pressures on Natural Gas
Sustained low natural gas prices can reduce revenue and profitability, challenging the company's ability to capitalize on its production capacity.

Canadian Natural (CNQ) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Canadian Natural Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCanadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) is one of the largest independent oil and natural gas producers in Canada. The company is primarily engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. CNQ operates in various segments, including Oil Sands, Conventional Oil and Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids, with a strong portfolio of assets located mainly in Alberta and Saskatchewan. The company is committed to responsible resource development and sustainability, aiming to deliver value to its shareholders while reducing environmental impact.
How the Company Makes MoneyCanadian Natural generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company benefits from a diversified production portfolio, allowing it to capitalize on various market conditions and demand for energy products. Key revenue streams include the sale of synthetic crude oil from its oil sands operations, conventional crude oil production, and natural gas production. Additionally, CNQ engages in hedging strategies to manage price volatility in commodity markets, which can enhance its earnings stability. The company's partnerships with other industry players for joint ventures and infrastructure development also contribute to its revenue generation. Overall, CNQ's focus on cost efficiency, operational excellence, and strategic asset management plays a critical role in its profitability.

Canadian Natural Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted Canadian Natural's strong operational and financial performance, marked by record production levels and significant shareholder returns. Despite some challenges in specific segments like Pelican Lake and ongoing price pressures in the natural gas market, the overall sentiment remains positive due to successful acquisitions, dividend growth, and a strong balance sheet.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Production Levels
Canadian Natural achieved record quarterly corporate production during the quarter, with approximately 1.62 million BOEs per day. This includes new records for both liquids and natural gas production, marking a 19% increase from Q3 2024 levels.
Strong Financial Performance
The company reported strong financial results, including quarterly adjusted funds flow of approximately $3.9 billion and adjusted net earnings of $1.8 billion. Returns to shareholders in the quarter totaled $1.5 billion, contributing to year-to-date shareholder returns of approximately $6.2 billion.
Successful Acquisitions
The acquisition of the Duvernay and Montney assets contributed significantly to production increases, with North American natural gas production increasing by 30% compared to Q3 2024.
Dividend Growth
Canadian Natural has increased its dividend for 25 consecutive years, with a CAGR of 21%, highlighting its commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Strong Balance Sheet
The company maintained a strong balance sheet with a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.9x and liquidity of over $4.3 billion.
Negative Updates
Pelican Lake Production Decrease
Pelican Lake production averaged approximately 42,100 barrels per day, a decrease of 7% from Q3 2024 levels due to planned maintenance and natural field declines.
Operational Challenges in Oil Sands
While operational performance was strong, challenges remain in optimizing equipment utilization and achieving cost savings across the Albian and other mining operations.
Price Pressures on Natural Gas
Despite strong production, the company faces ongoing challenges with weak AECO pricing, impacting the natural gas segment.
Company Guidance
During Canadian Natural's 2025 Third Quarter Earnings Call, the company provided updated guidance, highlighting significant production records and strategic acquisitions. The quarter saw record corporate production of approximately 1.62 million BOEs per day, with liquids production at 1.18 million barrels per day and natural gas at 2.7 Bcf per day, marking a 19% increase from Q3 2024. Following the closing of the AOSP swap with Shell Canada Limited, Canadian Natural now fully owns the Albian oil sands mines and retains an 80% interest in the Scotford Upgrader. This transaction added 31,000 barrels per day of zero-decline bitumen production. Consequently, the company raised its 2025 corporate production guidance to between 1.56 and 1.58 million BOEs per day while maintaining its operating capital forecast at approximately $5.9 billion. Industry-leading operating costs were also achieved, with oil sands mining costs at $21 per barrel and thermal in situ operations costs at $10.35 per barrel. The company emphasized its diversified asset base, operational efficiency, and commitment to shareholder value, projecting a 16% production growth per share compared to 2024.

Canadian Natural Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Canadian Natural exhibits strong profitability and a stable financial position, with efficient operations and a solid equity base. However, challenges in revenue growth and a decline in free cash flow growth rate slightly dampen the overall financial performance.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Canadian Natural's income statement shows strong profitability with a solid gross profit margin of 29.64% and a net profit margin of 18.88% for the TTM. However, there is a slight decline in revenue growth rate at -2.11%, indicating some challenges in maintaining top-line growth. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain robust at 26.27% and 44.29%, respectively, reflecting efficient cost management and operational strength.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet is stable with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.43, suggesting a balanced approach to leverage. The return on equity is healthy at 19.03%, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 48.43%, showing a strong equity base relative to total assets, which enhances financial stability.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth rate at -13.66%, which could impact future investments or debt repayments. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.71, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also solid at 0.63, reflecting adequate cash flow coverage of earnings.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue43.85B41.51B40.84B49.53B32.85B16.89B
Gross Profit11.73B10.90B11.77B16.26B10.58B-136.00M
EBITDA18.31B15.41B17.27B21.73B16.38B6.13B
Net Income8.32B6.11B8.23B10.94B7.66B-435.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets85.27B85.36B75.95B76.14B76.67B75.28B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments102.00M131.00M1.40B1.41B1.05B489.00M
Total Debt17.08B20.28B12.35B12.98B16.28B23.14B
Total Liabilities43.97B45.89B36.12B37.97B39.72B42.90B
Stockholders Equity41.30B39.47B39.83B38.17B36.95B32.38B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow7.99B8.00B7.44B14.29B9.99B2.16B
Operating Cash Flow13.83B13.39B12.35B19.39B14.48B4.71B
Investing Cash Flow-14.94B-14.10B-4.86B-4.99B-3.70B-2.82B
Financing Cash Flow296.00M-37.00M-7.54B-14.23B-10.21B-1.85B

Canadian Natural Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price44.40
Price Trends
50DMA
43.85
Positive
100DMA
43.17
Positive
200DMA
42.02
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.24
Negative
RSI
52.67
Neutral
STOCH
58.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CNQ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 44.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.73, above the 50-day MA of 43.85, and above the 200-day MA of 42.02, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CNQ.

Canadian Natural Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$92.82B11.2420.18%6.16%3.42%11.18%
79
Outperform
$12.85B8.9010.88%6.95%36.36%-19.92%
77
Outperform
$7.55B14.0311.70%1.36%-22.92%0.54%
75
Outperform
$15.09B10.2818.43%3.18%8.28%31.00%
73
Outperform
C$23.20B17.078.69%5.09%8.97%-21.15%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
65
Neutral
$5.95B27.458.16%3.98%-1.59%0.09%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:CNQ
Canadian Natural
44.40
-0.87
-1.92%
TSE:MEG
MEG Energy
30.11
4.68
18.39%
TSE:WCP
Whitecap Resources
10.50
0.94
9.87%
TSE:PSK
PrairieSky Royalty
25.88
-1.69
-6.12%
TSE:TOU
Tourmaline Oil
60.09
-0.45
-0.74%
TSE:ARX
ARC Resources
23.89
-0.37
-1.53%

Canadian Natural Corporate Events

Dividends
Canadian Natural Announces 25th Year of Dividend Increases
Positive
Nov 6, 2025

Canadian Natural Resources Limited has announced a quarterly cash dividend of C$0.5875 per common share, payable on January 6, 2026. This marks the 25th consecutive year of dividend increases, reflecting the company’s confidence in its sustainable business model, strong balance sheet, and robust asset base.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CNQ) stock is a Hold with a C$48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canadian Natural stock, see the TSE:CNQ Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Canadian Natural Reports Record Q3 Production and Strategic Acquisition
Positive
Nov 6, 2025

Canadian Natural Resources Limited reported record production volumes in the third quarter of 2025, achieving a 19% increase in total corporate production compared to the previous year. The company closed a significant transaction with Shell Canada, gaining full ownership of the Albian oil sands mines, which is expected to enhance cash flow and operational efficiency. Financially, the company maintained a strong balance sheet and returned $1.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CNQ) stock is a Hold with a C$48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canadian Natural stock, see the TSE:CNQ Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Canadian Natural Completes Strategic Asset Swap with Shell, Updates 2025 Guidance
Positive
Nov 3, 2025

Canadian Natural Resources Limited has completed an asset swap with Shell Canada, gaining full ownership of the Albian oil sands mines while Shell retains a 20% interest in the Scotford Upgrader and Quest facilities. This strategic move enhances Canadian Natural’s operational efficiency and increases its bitumen production by 31,000 barrels per day, contributing to a projected 15% production growth in 2025. The company’s updated production guidance for 2025 is set between 1,560 and 1,580 MBOE/d, with a capital forecast of $5.9 billion, reflecting strong execution and capital discipline.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CNQ) stock is a Buy with a C$49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canadian Natural stock, see the TSE:CNQ Stock Forecast page.

Canadian Natural Resources Finalizes Registration Rights Agreement for Note Issuance
Oct 3, 2025

On December 6, 2024, Canadian Natural Resources Limited entered into a Registration Rights Agreement with several financial institutions, including BofA Securities, RBC Capital Markets, and others, to facilitate the issuance of 5.000% Notes due 2029 and 5.400% Notes due 2034. This agreement is part of a strategic move to provide registration rights for the securities, ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements and enhancing the company’s financial flexibility. The agreement underscores Canadian Natural’s commitment to maintaining robust financial operations and could potentially impact its market positioning by attracting more investors through structured financial offerings.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CNQ) stock is a Buy with a C$62.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canadian Natural stock, see the TSE:CNQ Stock Forecast page.

Canadian Natural Announces Medium-Term Notes Dealer Agreement
Aug 29, 2025

On August 28, 2025, Canadian Natural Resources Limited announced a dealer agreement to issue and sell unsecured medium-term notes across Canada and potentially in other jurisdictions, including the United States. This strategic move aims to enhance the company’s financial flexibility and strengthen its market position by leveraging a network of prominent investment dealers to facilitate the sale of these financial instruments.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CNQ) stock is a Buy with a C$48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canadian Natural stock, see the TSE:CNQ Stock Forecast page.

Canadian Natural Resources Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results
Aug 19, 2025

Canadian Natural Resources Limited is a prominent player in the oil and gas sector, known for its extensive operations in oil sands mining, upgrading, and conventional oil and gas production, primarily based in Canada with some international exposure.

Canadian Natural Resources’ Earnings Call Highlights Growth and Returns
Aug 12, 2025

Canadian Natural Resources’ recent earnings call conveyed a generally positive outlook, marked by robust operational performance, increased production, and substantial shareholder returns. Despite facing some challenges, such as a delayed acquisition closing and decreased production in Pelican Lake, the overall sentiment remained favorable due to the company’s adeptness in maintaining cost efficiencies and executing accretive acquisitions.

Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Canadian Natural Resources Declares 25th Consecutive Year of Dividend Increases
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

Canadian Natural Resources Limited has declared a quarterly cash dividend of C$0.5875 per common share, payable on October 3, 2025. This announcement marks the 25th consecutive year of dividend increases, reflecting the company’s confidence in its sustainable business model and financial strength, with a compound annual growth rate of 21% over this period.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CNQ) stock is a Hold with a C$47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canadian Natural stock, see the TSE:CNQ Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Canadian Natural Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results with Strategic Acquisitions and High Production
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

Canadian Natural Resources Limited announced strong second-quarter results for 2025, highlighting efficient operations and strategic acquisitions that have bolstered production levels and shareholder value. The company completed a planned turnaround at the Athabasca Oil Sands Project ahead of schedule and reported high production and upgrader utilization rates. Despite a temporary reduction in production due to the turnaround, overall quarterly production increased significantly from the previous year. The company also closed key acquisitions, including assets in the Palliser Block and Montney region, enhancing its asset base and production capabilities. Financially, Canadian Natural reported adjusted net earnings of $1.5 billion and returned $1.6 billion to shareholders, maintaining a robust balance sheet with significant liquidity.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CNQ) stock is a Hold with a C$47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canadian Natural stock, see the TSE:CNQ Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 06, 2025