TRONOX (TROX) AI Stock Analysis

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TRONOX

(NYSE:TROX)

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Rating:44Neutral

Price Target:$2.50▼(-4.58% Downside)

Action:reiterated

Date:11/06/26

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (losses, pressured margins, negative ROE, and inconsistent free cash flow) and a bearish technical trend (below major moving averages with negative MACD). Valuation support comes mainly from the high dividend yield, but the negative P/E underscores ongoing earnings risk. The latest earnings call adds modest support from pricing and cost actions plus Q4 positive free cash flow guidance, but is tempered by softer demand/volumes, lower Q4 EBITDA guidance, and a full-year free cash flow outflow outlook.

Positive Factors

Vertical IntegrationTronox’s integrated mining-to-pigment model can improve security of feedstock supply and reduce exposure to third-party input pricing. Owning multiple stages of production also supports operational coordination and may help protect margins when external raw-material markets become volatile.

Negative Factors

Persistent Losses and Weak MarginsWeak profitability indicates that Tronox is not currently converting revenue into dependable earnings. Negative operating and net income, combined with very low gross margins, reduce internal funding capacity and leave results vulnerable to further pricing, volume, or cost pressure.

TRONOX (TROX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $418.43M
Dividend Yield: 7.63%
Average Volume (3M): 2.53M
Price to Earnings (P/E): -0.8
Beta (1Y): 2.07
Revenue Growth: 11.85%
EPS Growth: -55.06%
Country: US
Employees: 5,700
Sector: Basic Materials
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Chemicals

TRONOX Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tronox Holdings plc functions as a globally integrated producer of titanium dioxide (TiO2) pigment, maintaining a significant presence across North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company's operations spa...

How the Company Makes Money

Tronox makes money primarily by selling titanium dioxide (TiO2) pigment to manufacturers that use it to add whiteness, brightness, opacity, and durability to end products. Revenue is generated mainly through (1) TiO2 pigment sales, where earnings are...

TRONOX Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 04, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:-26.20%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 17, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentNeutral

The call was mixed. Tronox reported strong year-over-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, successful pricing actions, progress on trade measures, operational restarts, substantial cost savings, and a significant rare earth partnership. However, these positives were offset by a $55 million net loss, weaker sequential volumes and demand, prolonged Middle East conflict impacts, substantial raw material and energy cost inflation, lower fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA guidance, and an expected full-year free cash flow use. Management's outlook does not assume a further demand recovery.

Positive Updates

Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Growth

Third-quarter revenue was $827 million, up 18% year over year, driven by higher sales volumes and average selling prices, including mix, for TiO2 and zircon. Adjusted EBITDA was $101 million with a 12.2% margin, up 36% year over year and 38% sequentially.

Negative Updates

Middle East Conflict Disrupted Operations and Markets

The prolonged Middle East conflict created broader market headwinds, including weaker demand and higher input costs. The shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline interrupted natural gas supply to Yanbu, causing approximately four days of unplanned downtime and lower operating rates.

Company Guidance

For the fourth quarter, Tronox expects TiO2 volumes to decline sequentially by a high single to low double-digit percentage, zircon volume levels to soften moderately, TiO2 pricing to sustain the gains realized in the third quarter, zircon pricing to increase sequentially by a mid-single-digit percentage, adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $80 million-$90 million, approximately $15 million-$20 million of higher-than-expected input costs, and free cash flow to be positive in the range of $20 million-$45 million; for full year 2026, the company expects a use of free cash flow of approximately $25 million-$50 million, net cash interest of approximately $195 million, net cash taxes of less than $5 million, capital expenditures of approximately $230 million, and working capital as a source of cash in the range of $65 million-$80 million, while its cost improvement program is on track to deliver more than $175 million run rate savings by the end of 2026.

TRONOX Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial profile is weak and cyclical: TTM profitability is poor (gross margin ~6.2% with negative operating profit and ~-15.9% net margin), ROE is deeply negative (~-52%), and leverage sensitivity remains a concern per the balance-sheet discussion. Operating cash flow improved to $220M TTM, but free cash flow is still slightly negative (~-$17M) and has been inconsistent since 2023.

Income Statement

29Negative

Balance Sheet

35Negative

Cash Flow

42Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.18B	2.89B	3.07B	2.85B	3.45B	3.57B
Gross Profit	196.00M	229.00M	515.00M	462.00M	832.00M	895.00M
EBITDA	128.00M	54.00M	494.00M	488.00M	714.00M	840.00M
Net Income	-505.00M	-470.00M	-48.00M	-316.00M	497.00M	286.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.89B	6.22B	6.04B	6.13B	6.31B	5.99B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	136.00M	211.00M	151.00M	273.00M	164.00M	228.00M
Total Debt	3.38B	3.59B	2.99B	2.95B	2.67B	2.66B
Total Liabilities	4.74B	4.77B	4.25B	4.15B	3.90B	3.94B
Stockholders Equity	1.13B	1.42B	1.76B	1.94B	2.36B	1.99B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-17.00M	-281.00M	-70.00M	-77.00M	170.00M	468.00M
Operating Cash Flow	220.00M	60.00M	300.00M	184.00M	598.00M	740.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-227.00M	-328.00M	-343.00M	-255.00M	-415.00M	-269.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-24.00M	321.00M	-71.00M	176.00M	-250.00M	-877.00M

TRONOX Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price2.62

Price Trends

50DMA3.72Negative

100DMA4.83Negative

200DMA6.43Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.32Positive

RSI31.15Neutral

STOCH20.98Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TROX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.21, below the 50-day MA of 3.72, and below the 200-day MA of 6.43, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TROX.

TRONOX Risk Analysis

TRONOX disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TRONOX reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

3 New Risks

1.Our capital expenditure projects may need additional capital in the future and may not realize expected investment returns.Q4, 2025

2.The Company may not be successful in arranging required financing and/or developing a financeable structure for its rare earth initiatives, and even if the required financing is obtained and/or a financing structure is achieved, the Company may not be successful in developing a viable rare earth supply chain.Q4, 2025

3.Although certain jurisdictions have imposed anti-dumping duties or similar duties against TiO2 imports from China, there can be no assurance that such duties will benefit our business, and if such duties are reduced, removed or not extended, it could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial position.Q4, 2024

TRONOX Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

TROX against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WLKP	84Outperform	$764.29M	12.69	15.70%	8.89%	9.40%	20.34%
Sector *	61Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
VHI	59Neutral	$475.80M	428.25	1.39%	1.87%	9.03%	-93.51%
DD	55Neutral	$20.50B	68.35	2.18%	1.56%	-43.45%	―
OLN	55Neutral	$2.01B	-11.88	-9.57%	4.58%	-0.73%	-415.18%
HUN	49Neutral	$1.69B	-9.98	-6.12%	3.67%	6.49%	47.81%
TROX	44Neutral	$418.43M	-0.83	-40.46%	7.63%	11.85%	-55.06%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TROX and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
TROX	Tronox	2.62	-0.44	-14.27%
HUN	Huntsman	9.53	1.53	19.20%
OLN	Olin Corporation	17.46	-1.06	-5.71%
VHI	Valhi Inc	17.13	5.39	45.91%
WLKP	Westlake Chemical Partners LP	21.20	4.75	28.91%
DD	DuPont de Nemours, Inc.	153.78	39.84	34.96%

TRONOX Corporate Events

Dividends

Tronox Declares Fourth-Quarter Cash Dividend for Shareholders

Neutral

Nov 4, 2026

On November 3, 2026, Tronox announced that its Board of Directors had declared a fourth-quarter cash dividend of $0.05 per share. The dividend was payable on January 15, 2027, to shareholders of record at the close of business on November 16, 2026, m...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 06, 2026

TRONOX AI Stock Analysis