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Lsb Industries
(NYSE:LXU)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$12.00
▲(14.94% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/09/26
LXU scores in the mid-range primarily because strong recent cash flow and improving profitability/leverage are tempered by a highly cyclical earnings history. The latest earnings call adds support via improving operations, solid liquidity, and CCS/expansion upside, while technicals indicate a partial rebound that has not fully turned into a sustained long-term uptrend. Valuation is neither clearly cheap nor supported by a dividend, keeping the overall score moderate.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Strong TTM operating cash flow of about $182 million and free cash flow of $221 million, with FCF slightly above net income, provide internal funding for debt reduction and investment. This cash conversion improves resilience and capital-allocation flexibility through the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Earnings Cyclicality
Results remain highly cyclical: peak 2022 performance was followed by a loss-making 2024, negative free cash flow, and an uneven longer-term revenue trajectory. This volatility makes current margin recovery less dependable and leaves earnings exposed to nitrogen prices, demand, and input-cost spreads.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation
Strong TTM operating cash flow of about $182 million and free cash flow of $221 million, with FCF slightly above net income, provide internal funding for debt reduction and investment. This cash conversion improves resilience and capital-allocation flexibility through the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Lsb Industries (LXU) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$817.17M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)830.43K
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.4
Beta (1Y)0.59
Revenue Growth22.12%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees513
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.50
Shares Outstanding71,997,505
10 Day Avg. Volume625,369
30 Day Avg. Volume830,431
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.11
Price to Book (P/B)1.18
Price to Sales (P/S)1.00
P/FCF Ratio34.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.50Price Target Upside19.73% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.68
Revenue Forecast (FY)$652.01M
Lsb Industries Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
LSB Industries, Inc. specializes in the production, distribution, and sale of a diverse array of chemical compounds. The company is a key supplier of nitrogen-based agricultural inputs, including ammonia, fertilizer-grade ammonium nitrate (HDAN), ...
How the Company Makes Money
LSB Industries makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling nitrogen-based chemical products. Its core revenue streams are (1) agricultural products—selling ammonia and fertilizer-related nitrogen products to customers in agriculture and who...
Lsb Industries Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution (on-time, on-budget, injury-free turnarounds), meaningful quarter-over-quarter EBITDA growth (40% increase) and a solid balance sheet (≈$220M cash, net leverage 1.1x) while outlining clear growth avenues (CCS ownership, potential El Dorado expansion) that could add material incremental EBITDA. Countervailing factors include the sizable near-term earnings drag from turnarounds (~$35–$40M), elevated SG&A trends, and ongoing geopolitical/supply risks that create volatility in pricing and timing for project paybacks. On balance management presented confidence in improved production, favorable market fundamentals, and disciplined capital allocation, while acknowledging execution and external market risks.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Second quarter adjusted EBITDA increased to $53 million from $38 million in Q2 2025, a 40% year-over-year increase. Trailing-12-month adjusted EBITDA was $200 million as of June 30, 2026. Excluding estimated $35–$40 million turnaround impacts, illustrative Q2 adjusted EBITDA is approximately $90 million.
Negative Updates
Turnaround-Related Earnings Drag
Planned turnaround activity (primarily El Dorado, plus pulled-forward Pryor work) reduced Q2 results by an estimated $35–$40 million of adjusted EBITDA and temporarily lowered ammonia and UAN production volumes in the quarter.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Second quarter adjusted EBITDA increased to $53 million from $38 million in Q2 2025, a 40% year-over-year increase. Trailing-12-month adjusted EBITDA was $200 million as of June 30, 2026. Excluding estimated $35–$40 million turnaround impacts, illustrative Q2 adjusted EBITDA is approximately $90 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that, despite planned turnarounds that trimmed Q2 volumes (an estimated $35–40 million EBITDA headwind), the company delivered Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $53M (up 40% from $38M a year ago) and an illustrative Q2 adjusted EBITDA of ~ $90M excluding turnarounds, with trailing‑12‑month adjusted EBITDA of $200M as of June 30; balance sheet and cash metrics include ~$220M cash, net leverage ~1.1x, Q2 operating cash flow $59M, sustaining capex $27M, free cash flow ~$32M, and ~ $13M invested in growth (including ~$11M on the El Dorado CCS). Operationally, El Dorado (nameplate ~1,150 tpd) is running ~1,380 tpd today with potential toward ~1,400 tpd (roughly +100+ tpd vs. pre‑turnaround), Pryor has restarted and is ramping to full rates, and management expects higher production rates and to meet or exceed annual targets. Market and pricing guidance: Tampa ammonia settled at $635/mt (Aug), NOLA UAN ~ $300/ton, U.S. gas ~ $3.20/MMBtu (Q3 avg) versus European TTF >$19–20/MMBtu (European ammonia cost ~ $700/mt), supporting expectations for favorable prices and a possible Q4 rebound. On growth, CCS is expected to begin operations in Q1 2027 and to generate $25–30M of annual earnings net of operating costs (with incremental 45Q benefits and capture assumptions discussed that imply several million dollars of tax‑credit value), and an El Dorado expansion FEED/FID is targeted in Q2 2027 for a $135–150M project (net ~$105–120M after a ~20% USDA grant) to add ~100k tpa ammonia and roughly $20M incremental annual EBITDA.Lsb Industries Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 658.06M | 615.21M | 522.40M | 593.71M | 901.71M | 556.24M |
| Gross Profit | 114.00M | 104.30M | 47.80M | 86.26M | 348.37M | 138.98M |
| EBITDA | 152.32M | 145.14M | 82.69M | 143.95M | 378.60M | 158.31M |
| Net Income | 36.74M | 24.61M | -19.35M | 27.92M | 230.35M | 43.55M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.22B | 1.17B | 1.19B | 1.30B | 1.44B | 1.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 217.98M | 148.47M | 184.20M | 305.93M | 394.32M | 82.14M |
| Total Debt | 481.47M | 489.41M | 526.22M | 619.99M | 743.28M | 559.93M |
| Total Liabilities | 685.38M | 653.57M | 695.55M | 779.85M | 923.95M | 672.35M |
| Stockholders Equity | 539.22M | 519.97M | 491.64M | 518.33M | 515.87M | 460.49M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 163.96M | 18.06M | -5.72M | 69.92M | 299.82M | 52.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 181.68M | 95.52M | 86.58M | 137.52M | 345.65M | 87.63M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -148.13M | -42.36M | -53.08M | 57.40M | -369.74M | -34.69M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -18.80M | -53.88M | -114.30M | -157.66M | 5.71M | 12.95M |
Lsb Industries Technical Analysis
Positive
10.44
Price Trends
10.82
Positive
12.01
Negative
11.51
Positive
Market Momentum
0.20
Negative
63.14
Neutral
80.98
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LXU, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.71, below the 50-day MA of 10.82, and below the 200-day MA of 11.51, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.98 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LXU.
Lsb Industries Risk Analysis
Lsb Industries disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lsb Industries reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Lsb Industries Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $817.17M | 23.45 | 6.98% | ― | 22.12% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
53 Neutral | $528.47M | -10.19 | -3.66% | 1.74% | 3.38% | -152.09% | |
52 Neutral | $577.68M | -4.08 | -52.28% | 4.12% | -3.56% | 68.49% | |
49 Neutral | $1.72B | -9.63 | -6.28% | 3.64% | 0.65% | 45.36% | |
49 Neutral | $766.56M | -1.34 | -40.45% | 4.30% | 3.53% | -118.53% | |
47 Neutral | $456.86M | -25.59 | -2.20% | 3.79% | 2.96% | -122.83% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
LXU
Lsb Industries
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3.57
43.91%
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Lsb Industries Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
LSB Industries Highlights Strategy in New Investor Presentation
Positive
Sep 9, 2026
LSB Industries has released a new investor presentation for use in meetings with investors and analysts, outlining its position as a diversified U.S. nitrogen producer with strategically located plants and a product mix spanning ammonia, UAN, ammo...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
LSB Industries Q2 Earnings Highlight Growth and Turnarounds
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, LSB Industries released its second‑quarter 2026 earnings presentation, reporting about 40% year‑over‑year growth in adjusted EBITDA to $53 million on net sales of $168 million, despite reduced production from tu...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.