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Trinity Industries
(NYSE:TRN)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$30.00
▼(-19.81% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
TRN scores mid-range primarily due to balance-sheet and cash-flow risks (very high leverage and persistently negative free cash flow) despite solid reported profitability. Technicals are notably weak with the stock trading below key moving averages and negative momentum indicators. These headwinds are partly offset by attractive valuation (low P/E and a ~4.2% dividend yield) and an earnings-call outlook that maintained guidance and emphasized strong leasing metrics, though Rail Products execution and policy uncertainty remain key risks.
Positive Factors
Leasing Pricing and Utilization
High utilization and improving renewals support recurring lease revenue, while positive future lease rate differentials indicate pricing power. These metrics strengthen the durability of Trinity’s leasing economics across the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Heavy leverage limits financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to rail-cycle weakness, interest costs, and asset-value changes. Elevated fleet loan-to-value also leaves less cushion if utilization, lease rates, or residual values deteriorate.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Leasing Pricing and Utilization
High utilization and improving renewals support recurring lease revenue, while positive future lease rate differentials indicate pricing power. These metrics strengthen the durability of Trinity’s leasing economics across the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Trinity Industries Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Shows how much profit each business line generates after core operating costs, revealing which segments drive Trinity’s earnings and which may be under pressure. Helpful for spotting high‑margin areas like leasing or aftermarket services versus cyclical, capital‑intensive manufacturing that can swing with railcar orders.
Shows how much profit each business line generates after core operating costs, revealing which segments drive Trinity’s earnings and which may be under pressure. Helpful for spotting high‑margin areas like leasing or aftermarket services versus cyclical, capital‑intensive manufacturing that can swing with railcar orders.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTrinity Industries (TRN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.37B
Dividend Yield4.13%
Average Volume (3M)759.63K
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.9
Beta (1Y)0.95
Revenue Growth-18.95%
EPS Growth260.48%
CountryUS
Employees6,110
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.30
Shares Outstanding79,669,490
10 Day Avg. Volume667,594
30 Day Avg. Volume759,629
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)1.98
Price to Sales (P/S)0.99
P/FCF Ratio-4.91
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$23.31Price Target Upside-37.68% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)2.28
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.07B
Trinity Industries Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Trinity Industries, Inc. operates in North America, providing railway transportation solutions under its TrinityRail brand. The company is organized into two main divisions: Railcar Leasing and Management Services, and Rail Products. The Railcar L...
How the Company Makes Money
Trinity Industries primarily makes money through a combination of (1) leasing railroad freight cars and (2) selling/manufacturing railcars and related products, supported by (3) parts and components sales and (4) services tied to managing railcar ...
Trinity Industries Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a balanced picture: strong capital-marketing execution and leasing fundamentals (EPS uplift from the Napier Park transaction, very high utilization, improved renewal rates and FLRD, $1B liquidity and improved ROE) were offset by operational challenges in Rail Products (production interruption, Mexico realignment, a fatality, and sharply depressed segment margin of 1.3%) and external headwinds (tariff uncertainty and industry deliveries below replacement). Management maintained full-year guidance and signaled that Rail Products margins should normalize in H2 as deliveries ramp, but risks remain until production issues and policy uncertainty are fully resolved.Positive Updates
Earnings Per Share Boosted by Partnership Transaction
GAAP EPS from continuing operations of $1.25 in Q2 2026, supported by a $132 million pretax non-cash gain from the Napier Park railcar partnership transaction that unlocked embedded fleet value.
Negative Updates
Rail Products Margin Shortfall
Rail Products operating margin came in at 1.3% for the quarter, well below the company's target range. Two quantified items accounted for roughly 270 basis points of the shortfall; excluding those items, underlying margin was in the ~4% range — still below the annual target of 5%–6%.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Earnings Per Share Boosted by Partnership Transaction
GAAP EPS from continuing operations of $1.25 in Q2 2026, supported by a $132 million pretax non-cash gain from the Napier Park railcar partnership transaction that unlocked embedded fleet value.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Trinity is holding full‑year EPS guidance of $2.20–$2.40 and expects Rail Products full‑year segment margin in the 5%–6% range (now anticipated toward the low end as Q2 headwinds normalize), with industry deliveries forecast at ~25,000 in 2026 and a potential step‑up to ~35,000 in 2027; Rail Products deliveries are expected to be higher in H2, providing operating leverage to support the guidance. Management slightly lowered net lease‑fleet investment to $300–$400 million, is guiding gains of $160–$180 million (with $162M booked YTD), and noted YTD net fleet investment of $126M, cash flow from continuing operations of $172M (cash flow from operations including net gains: $81M in Q2 and $203M YTD), liquidity of $1.0B, an unencumbered fleet of roughly $900M and a fleet loan‑to‑value of 70.8%. They reiterated disciplined capital allocation (returned $71M YTD via dividends and repurchases) and said limited secondary market sales are assumed in the back half given the gains already booked.Trinity Industries Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.04B | 2.16B | 3.08B | 2.98B | 1.98B | 1.52B |
| Gross Profit | 531.90M | 572.70M | 668.20M | 527.10M | 367.70M | 354.50M |
| EBITDA | 1.04B | 954.70M | 789.10M | 707.70M | 612.00M | 512.30M |
| Net Income | 343.30M | 253.10M | 138.40M | 106.00M | 60.10M | 182.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.23B | 8.42B | 8.83B | 8.91B | 8.72B | 8.24B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 155.70M | 201.30M | 374.40M | 235.10M | 294.30M | 302.40M |
| Total Debt | 5.23B | 5.44B | 5.80B | 5.87B | 5.72B | 5.28B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.09B | 7.28B | 7.53B | 7.63B | 7.45B | 6.94B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.14B | 1.08B | 1.06B | 1.04B | 1.01B | 1.03B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -351.30M | -435.20M | -21.90M | -414.50M | -979.60M | 41.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 388.30M | 359.70M | 573.80M | 295.60M | -12.80M | 611.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -325.30M | -385.60M | -214.60M | -363.00M | -260.70M | 276.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -108.40M | -24.90M | -219.90M | 8.20M | 265.40M | -814.10M |
Trinity Industries Technical Analysis
Negative
37.41
Price Trends
33.70
Negative
33.40
Negative
30.93
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.40
Positive
36.81
Neutral
57.78
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TRN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 37.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.41, above the 50-day MA of 33.70, and above the 200-day MA of 30.93, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TRN.
Trinity Industries Risk Analysis
Trinity Industries disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Trinity Industries reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
The regulatory environment relating to U.S. tariffs, customs administration, and trade policy has continued to evolve. Q2, 2026
Trinity Industries Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $49.37B | 39.94 | 11.36% | 0.37% | 13.43% | 10.75% | |
69 Neutral | $3.31B | 27.65 | 8.96% | ― | 24.35% | 32.67% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $399.23M | 34.94 | 6.49% | ― | 10.13% | -67.50% | |
59 Neutral | $1.42B | 13.31 | 6.57% | 2.53% | -25.64% | -52.74% | |
55 Neutral | $2.37B | 6.93 | 31.93% | 3.29% | -18.95% | 260.48% | |
54 Neutral | $236.75M | -18.43 | 21.95% | ― | -0.50% | 47.71% |
* Industrials Sector Average
TRN
Trinity Industries
29.79
1.91
6.87%
CXW
CoreCivic
34.01
13.22
63.59%
RAIL
Freightcar America
7.37
-1.61
-17.93%
GBX
Greenbrier
46.05
-0.14
-0.30%
FSTR
L. B. Foster Company
38.08
13.65
55.87%
WAB
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies
297.57
102.74
52.73%
Trinity Industries Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Trinity Industries posts strong Q2 results, demand improving
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Trinity Industries reported second-quarter 2026 earnings from continuing operations of $1.25 per diluted share on revenues of $485 million, with results driven by higher lease rates and a $132 million non-cash gain from a railcar...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Trinity Industries Expands Liquidity With New Credit Facility
Positive
Jun 16, 2026
On June 12, 2026, Trinity Industries, Inc. entered into a Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement that replaces its prior 2022 facility and establishes a $600 million unsecured revolving line of credit, with potential upsizing by $300 million ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Trinity Industries Shareholders Reaffirm Board and Governance Structure
Positive
May 21, 2026
At its May 21, 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, Trinity Industries, Inc. shareholders elected eight directors to one-year terms, reaffirming the existing leadership slate and signaling continuity in board oversight. The election results showed...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.