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Greenbrier
(NYSE:GBX)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$39.00
▼(-15.51% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/27/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash-flow durability (recurring negative free cash flow) and bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors include reasonable valuation with a solid dividend yield and a constructive earnings call with positive fiscal 2027 guidance and strengthening orders/backlog, though accompanied by margin/ROIC and demand-timing uncertainties.
Positive Factors
Recurring Lease Revenue
Rapid lease-fleet expansion and 98% utilization strengthen the company’s recurring revenue base, reducing reliance on volatile new-railcar orders. This supports more stable results across industry cycles and creates a durable platform for further fleet-management growth.
Negative Factors
Persistent Negative Free Cash Flow
Recurring negative free cash flow, including during more profitable periods, indicates that investment needs and working-capital demands are not consistently covered internally. This weakens cash-flow quality, limits self-funding capacity, and can increase dependence on financing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring Lease Revenue
Rapid lease-fleet expansion and 98% utilization strengthen the company’s recurring revenue base, reducing reliance on volatile new-railcar orders. This supports more stable results across industry cycles and creates a durable platform for further fleet-management growth.
Read all positive factors
Greenbrier (GBX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.16B
Dividend Yield3.52%
Average Volume (3M)401.29K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.7
Beta (1Y)0.51
Revenue Growth-25.64%
EPS Growth-52.74%
CountryUS
Employees11,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.55
Shares Outstanding30,939,686
10 Day Avg. Volume362,376
30 Day Avg. Volume401,288
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.29
Price to Book (P/B)0.89
Price to Sales (P/S)0.57
P/FCF Ratio-5.82
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.75
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.30
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.59
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.25
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$40.00Price Target Upside-13.34% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)3.65
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.68B
Greenbrier Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. operates as a prominent player in the railway sector, dedicated to the engineering, construction, and distribution of railroad freight car equipment across North America, Europe, and South America. Its operations are...
How the Company Makes Money
Greenbrier primarily makes money by selling newly manufactured freight railcars and related equipment to customers, with revenue recognized from fulfilling railcar orders (often under multi-unit contracts) for various railcar types. A second major...
Greenbrier Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 26, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 01, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly constructive. Despite results below initial expectations, weak European demand, lower fourth-quarter operating efficiency, trade-related tank car uncertainty and a lower near-term leasing margin, Greenbrier highlighted stronger orders, the first sequential backlog increase since fiscal 2024, 23% lease fleet growth, 98% utilization, strong liquidity, improving rail market indicators and positive fiscal 2027 guidance. Highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.Positive Updates
Resilient Fiscal 2026 Performance
Greenbrier delivered 15,400 railcars, generated $2.5 billion in revenue, earned core earnings per share of $2.60 and achieved aggregate gross margin of 13.6%. Compared with fiscal 2022, the company delivered about 4,500 fewer units but produced aggregate gross margin 330 basis points higher, core EBITDA 30% higher and core net earnings 76% higher.
Negative Updates
Macroeconomic Pressure and Results Below Initial Expectations
Geopolitical uncertainty, wars, shifting tariff and trade policies and higher interest costs caused customers to extend the timing of investment decisions in long-life freight railcars. Management said fiscal 2026 and fourth-quarter results were below what it expected at the start of the year and that industry activity remained at a low point in the cycle.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Resilient Fiscal 2026 Performance
Greenbrier delivered 15,400 railcars, generated $2.5 billion in revenue, earned core earnings per share of $2.60 and achieved aggregate gross margin of 13.6%. Compared with fiscal 2022, the company delivered about 4,500 fewer units but produced aggregate gross margin 330 basis points higher, core EBITDA 30% higher and core net earnings 76% higher.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For fiscal 2027, Greenbrier anticipates North American industry deliveries of 26,000 to 28,000 railcars, total revenue between $2.8 billion and $3.2 billion, operating margin ranging from 7% to 7.5%, earnings per share between $2.75 and $3.75, and total capital expenditures, net of proceeds from equipment sales, ranging from $225 million to $275 million, with approximately 70% allocated towards growth of the lease fleet; leasing and fleet management revenue is expected to grow 12% to 15%, manufacturing gross margin is expected to be in the low double digits, aggregate gross margin is expected to be in the 14% to 15% range, and the lease fleet is projected to grow to somewhere between 22,000 cars and 23,000 cars, with deliveries expected to be stronger and back half weighted, and to do a little bit better than 2026 in terms of deliveries.Greenbrier Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
32
Negative
| Breakdown | Aug 2026 | Aug 2025 | Aug 2024 | Aug 2023 | Aug 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.46B | 3.23B | 3.54B | 3.94B | 2.98B |
| Gross Profit | 333.70M | 600.40M | 553.10M | 442.10M | 305.60M |
| EBITDA | 279.80M | 517.80M | 450.30M | 312.10M | 213.70M |
| Net Income | 79.00M | 204.10M | 160.10M | 62.50M | 46.90M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.82B | 4.36B | 4.25B | 3.98B | 3.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 235.10M | 326.40M | 351.80M | 302.70M | 559.10M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 1.84B | 2.17B | 1.68B | 1.62B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.25B | 2.63B | 2.68B | 2.51B | 2.39B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.57B | 1.53B | 1.38B | 1.25B | 1.28B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -239.70M | -14.70M | -65.80M | -284.10M | -527.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 39.60M | 265.70M | 332.50M | 78.00M | -146.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -91.10M | -203.10M | -323.30M | -286.80M | -227.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -31.30M | -101.70M | 86.20M | -76.20M | 244.90M |
Greenbrier Technical Analysis
Negative
46.16
Price Trends
41.79
Negative
45.10
Negative
47.96
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.16
Negative
31.66
Neutral
35.48
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GBX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 46.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.99, above the 50-day MA of 41.79, and below the 200-day MA of 47.96, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 31.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GBX.
Greenbrier Risk Analysis
Greenbrier disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Greenbrier reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Greenbrier Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $46.81B | 34.57 | 12.17% | 0.44% | 13.25% | 16.83% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $376.50M | 32.83 | 6.49% | 1.33% | 10.13% | -67.50% | |
53 Neutral | $1.16B | 14.70 | 4.73% | 3.52% | -25.64% | -52.74% | |
53 Neutral | $2.03B | 5.93 | 31.93% | 4.86% | -18.95% | 260.48% | |
49 Neutral | $146.58M | -11.18 | 21.95% | 1.97% | -0.50% | 47.71% | |
44 Neutral | $6.96M | -0.52 | -70.18% | ― | 191.88% | 51.03% |
* Industrials Sector Average
GBX
Greenbrier
37.48
-6.54
-14.86%
RAIL
Freightcar America
4.47
-5.31
-54.29%
FSTR
L. B. Foster Company
35.79
9.14
34.30%
TRN
Trinity Industries
25.50
-1.61
-5.95%
WAB
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies
278.95
81.88
41.55%
RVSN
Rail Vision Ltd.
3.18
-10.59
-76.94%
Greenbrier Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Greenbrier, Atlas Holdings finalize governance cooperation agreement
Positive
Oct 26, 2026
On October 24, 2026, Greenbrier entered into a cooperation agreement with Atlas Holdings that reshaped its board composition and governance arrangements. The deal included voting commitments, limited sharing of non‑public information under c...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Greenbrier Secures Major Global Railcar Orders in Q4
Positive
Sep 22, 2026
On September 22, 2026, Greenbrier announced that it had received orders for 3,400 new railcars valued at approximately $600 million during its fiscal fourth quarter ended August 31, 2026. The orders span multiple railcar types and end markets, und...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Greenbrier Announces Planned CEO Leadership Transition
Neutral
Aug 31, 2026
On August 31, 2026, Greenbrier announced that Chief Executive Officer and President Lorie Tekorius will retire from her roles effective January 6, 2027, following the company’s Annual Meeting of Shareholders. Tekorius, who has been with Gree...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.