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CoreCivic Inc (CXW)
NYSE:CXW

CoreCivic (CXW) AI Stock Analysis

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CoreCivic

(NYSE:CXW)

Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$23.50
▲(7.60%Upside)
CoreCivic presents a stable investment opportunity with strong cash flow management and positive earnings call insights. However, the high P/E ratio and lack of revenue growth, combined with mixed technical signals, suggest a cautious outlook. The revised financial guidance and successful contract activations provide a positive sentiment, yet the stock's valuation and moderate leverage require attention.

CoreCivic (CXW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

CoreCivic Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCoreCivic, Inc. owns and operates partnership correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities in the United States. It operates through three segments: CoreCivic Safety, CoreCivic Community, and CoreCivic Properties. The company provides a range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through corrections and detention management, a network of residential reentry centers to help address America's recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. Its correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities offer rehabilitation and educational programs, including basic education, faith-based services, life skills and employment training, and substance abuse treatment. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated 46 correctional and detention facilities, 26 residential reentry centers, and 10 properties for lease. The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Brentwood, Tennessee.
How the Company Makes MoneyCoreCivic generates revenue primarily through long-term contracts with federal, state, and local government agencies. The company's CoreCivic Safety segment is the largest revenue driver, as it involves the management and operation of correctional and detention facilities, for which CoreCivic receives payments based on occupancy rates or fixed monthly fees. The CoreCivic Community segment contributes to revenue through providing residential reentry programs and services aimed at reducing recidivism. Additionally, CoreCivic Properties generates income by leasing real estate assets to government entities. These revenue streams are supported by significant partnerships with agencies such as the U.S. Marshals Service, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), and various state departments of corrections. Economic and political factors, including criminal justice policies and incarceration rates, can significantly impact CoreCivic's financial performance.

CoreCivic Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -3.36%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance and significant contract activity, particularly with ICE. Despite some revenue declines from terminated contracts, the growth in facility utilization and successful reactivations paint a generally positive outlook.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Facility Utilization
CoreCivic reported first-quarter revenue of $488.6 million, exceeding expectations. Facility utilization improved to 77% from 75.2% in the previous year.
Significant Contracting Activity
CoreCivic announced contract modifications for multiple facilities, including the Northeast Ohio Correctional Center and the Dilley Immigration Processing Center, potentially adding up to 7,000 beds under contract.
ICE Facility Activations
CoreCivic successfully reactivated the Dilley Immigration Processing Center and entered into letter contracts with ICE for two additional facilities, Midwest Regional Reception Center and California City Immigration Processing Center.
Financial Performance Exceeding Expectations
CoreCivic's first-quarter net income and FFO per share exceeded analyst estimates, and the company increased its full-year financial guidance.
Negative Updates
Revenue Declines from Terminated Contracts
Revenue decreased due to the termination of the ICE contract at the South Texas Family Residential Center and a lease expiration with the State of California, resulting in a $22.6 million decrease in facility net operating income.
Challenges in Federal Revenue
Federal revenue in CoreCivic's safety and community segments decreased by $21.1 million compared to the previous year.
Company Guidance
During CoreCivic's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided updated financial guidance for the year, highlighting several key metrics. CoreCivic exceeded expectations with first-quarter revenue of $488.6 million and an EBITDA of $81 million. These figures reflected a significant improvement in facility utilization, which rose to 77% from 75.2% the previous year. The company also reported an increase in adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) ranging from $187.5 million to $200.5 million for 2025. CoreCivic announced the reactivation of the Dilley Immigration Processing Center and entered into letter contracts with ICE for facilities in Kansas and California. The company also revised its full-year financial guidance, projecting diluted EPS between $0.83 to $0.92, up from $0.48 to $0.61, and FFO per share of $1.72 to $1.82, up from $1.37 to $1.50.

CoreCivic Financial Statement Overview

Summary
CoreCivic's financial performance is stable with competitive margins and efficient cash flow management. Income statement shows moderate performance with stable revenue. Balance sheet indicates manageable leverage and strong equity position. Cash flow is robust, supporting operational needs. However, potential for improved profitability and revenue growth exists.
Income Statement
67
Positive
CoreCivic's income statement shows moderate performance with a stable revenue base and improving profitability. The TTM Gross Profit Margin is approximately 21.87%, and the Net Profit Margin is around 4.33%. Revenue has slightly decreased by about 0.61% from the previous annual report. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also stable at around 9.29% and 15.68%, respectively. The company demonstrates consistent profitability but lacks significant revenue growth.
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a balanced financial structure with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of approximately 0.67, indicating moderate leverage. The Return on Equity (ROE) is about 5.72%, which is decent but could improve. The Equity Ratio stands at 49.13%, showcasing a strong equity position. Overall, while the leverage is manageable, there is room for improvement in profitability and asset utilization.
Cash Flow
74
Positive
CoreCivic's cash flow statement presents a healthy financial position with robust cash generation. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate shows a decrease, but the Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is strong at 2.88, indicating efficient cash conversion. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.87, highlighting solid free cash flow relative to earnings. Cash flows are well-managed, supporting financial stability and operational needs.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.95B1.96B1.90B1.85B1.86B1.91B
Gross Profit
426.27M468.29M306.89M431.54M525.55M499.11M
EBIT
181.16M188.20M170.81M168.84M189.37M217.29M
EBITDA
305.84M287.39M296.10M389.08M316.38M293.88M
Net Income Common Stockholders
84.44M68.87M67.59M122.32M-51.90M55.34M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
335.49M107.49M121.84M149.40M299.64M113.22M
Total Assets
4.08B2.93B3.11B3.24B3.50B3.71B
Total Debt
2.27B1.01B1.21B1.25B1.53B1.79B
Net Debt
1.94B905.38M1.09B1.10B1.23B1.67B
Total Liabilities
2.70B1.44B1.63B1.81B2.13B2.30B
Stockholders Equity
1.36B1.49B1.48B1.43B1.37B1.39B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
158.06M197.98M161.65M72.19M182.35M271.74M
Operating Cash Flow
243.28M269.15M231.90M153.58M263.23M355.53M
Investing Cash Flow
-75.05M-53.82M-58.87M73.04M238.42M12.97M
Financing Cash Flow
-199.68M-222.18M-206.24M-375.16M-327.71M-350.82M

CoreCivic Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price21.84
Price Trends
50DMA
21.76
Positive
100DMA
20.75
Positive
200DMA
19.00
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.02
Positive
RSI
48.03
Neutral
STOCH
70.37
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CXW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.84 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.05, above the 50-day MA of 21.76, and above the 200-day MA of 19.00, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CXW.

CoreCivic Risk Analysis

CoreCivic disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CoreCivic reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Expectations about growth in the utilization of detention beds by the federal government may not be realized, which could negatively impact our stock price. Q4, 2024

CoreCivic Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
EPEPR
77
Outperform
$4.31B34.496.25%6.06%0.69%-19.22%
FPFPI
73
Outperform
$545.08M11.2912.09%2.08%-0.52%112.78%
OUOUT
70
Neutral
$2.72B10.6639.80%5.62%-1.10%
CXCXW
67
Neutral
$2.40B29.155.79%0.53%34.20%
66
Neutral
$4.50B12.295.40%248.66%4.13%-12.33%
PCPCH
62
Neutral
$3.04B63.852.31%4.66%10.86%6.72%
57
Neutral
$1.07B16.59-3.72%3.51%2.44%305.26%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CXW
CoreCivic
21.84
9.98
84.15%
PCH
PotlatchDeltic
39.20
-0.15
-0.38%
EPR
EPR Properties
57.03
19.91
53.64%
OUT
Outfront Media
16.45
3.70
29.02%
FPI
Farmland
11.69
2.09
21.77%
UNIT
Uniti Group
4.31
1.24
40.39%

CoreCivic Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
CoreCivic Stockholders Meeting Elects Board and Ratifies Auditor
Neutral
May 19, 2025

On May 15, 2025, CoreCivic held its annual stockholders meeting via webcast, with 84.4% of its common stock represented. During the meeting, stockholders elected twelve directors to the board, ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent accounting firm for 2025, and approved executive compensation on an advisory basis. These decisions are pivotal for the company’s governance and financial oversight in the coming year.

The most recent analyst rating on (CXW) stock is a Buy with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CoreCivic stock, see the CXW Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.