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Tokio Marine Holdings (TKOMY) AI Stock Analysis

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TKOMY

Tokio Marine Holdings

(Other OTC:TKOMY)

Select Model
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:$4.00▲(8.02% Upside)
Action:upgraded
Date:10/08/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance—improving profitability, low leverage, and high ROE—tempered by 2026 revenue softness and a sharp drop in 2026 cash generation. Technicals are mixed with weaker near-term momentum despite longer-term trend support, and valuation looks broadly fair with a moderate P/E and a ~2.94% dividend yield.

Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheetVery low leverage and expanding equity provide Tokio Marine with financial resilience and flexibility. A stronger capital base can support claims-paying capacity, investment in growth, and shareholder distributions while reducing dependence on debt financing during adverse insurance or market conditions.
Negative Factors
2026 revenue contractionThe reversal from several years of revenue growth signals weaker top-line momentum and creates uncertainty about near-term expansion. If the decline persists, Tokio Marine may have less premium growth to absorb expenses, invest in capabilities, or offset pressure in other business lines.

Tokio Marine Holdings (TKOMY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%TKOMY+45.44%SPY+14.30%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
$106.01B
Dividend Yield
1.33%
Average Volume (3M)
2.19M
Price to Earnings (P/E)
21.7
Beta (1Y)
0.27
Revenue Growth
-3.48%
EPS Growth
-42.16%
Country
US
Employees
67,526
Sector
Financial
Sector Strength
68
Industry
Insurance - Property & Casualty

Tokio Marine Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. operates as a global conglomerate, offering a wide array of services including property and casualty insurance, life insurance, financial solutions, and various general business activities. The company structures its exten...

How the Company Makes Money

Tokio Marine Holdings makes money primarily through its insurance operations and investment activities conducted by its operating subsidiaries. 1) Underwriting income (insurance premiums): The core revenue driver is premium income collected from poli...

Tokio Marine Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 20, 2025(Q4-2024)|% Change Since:41.55%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 19, 2026
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The earnings call presented a strong performance in fiscal 2024 with significant growth in adjusted net income and shareholder returns. However, challenges including decreased life insurance premiums, inflation impacts, and CRE loan issues were noted. The overall outlook for fiscal 2025 remains positive with projected income growth and continued equity sales.

Positive Updates

Strong Fiscal 2024 Performance
Adjusted net income excluding one-off effects was JPY679.0 billion, showing a 14% year-over-year growth driven by major international businesses and favorable foreign exchange impacts.

Negative Updates

Decrease in Life Insurance Premiums
Life insurance premiums decreased by 44% from the February announcement due to block reinsurance by Anshin Life in March.

Company Guidance

During the conference call for Tokio Marine's FY 2024 results and FY 2025 forecast, several key financial metrics and guidance points were discussed. The FY 2024 adjusted net income, excluding one-off effects, reached JPY679 billion, reflecting a 14% year-over-year growth, bolstered by the strong performance of international businesses and currency exchange rate impacts. The sales of business-related equities amounted to JPY922 billion, surpassing the initial forecast by JPY10 billion, contributing to an overall adjusted net income, including these gains, of JPY1.215 trillion. For FY 2025, the company projects JPY700 billion in adjusted net income, excluding equity sales gains, indicating a 3% growth over the previous year. The projected dividend per share (DPS) for FY 2024 was revised to JPY172, representing a 40% increase, and is expected to grow by 22% to JPY210 in FY 2025. The company also plans to repurchase JPY220 billion of its own shares in FY 2025. The projected sales of business-related equities for FY 2025 remain at JPY600 billion, consistent with the previous year, and the adjusted net income, including these sales, is expected to reach JPY1.1 trillion. The management emphasized the importance of consistent profit growth and shareholder returns, alongside disciplined capital management and strategic investment opportunities.

Tokio Marine Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and improving profitability (net margin ~13.1% and operating margin ~18.1% in 2026) with a conservatively levered balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~0.04–0.06) and solid ROE (~19.1%). Offsets include 2026 revenue softness (-3.7%), a notable gross margin drop versus 2024–2025, and sharply lower 2026 operating/free cash flow versus 2025, signaling potential sustainability risk.

Income Statement

82Very Positive

Balance Sheet

88Very Positive

Cash Flow

74Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMMar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023
Income Statement
Total Revenue8.00T7.58T7.96T7.08T6.31T5.75T
Gross Profit7.07T6.57T3.88T6.13T5.46T5.00T
EBITDA331.09B1.71T1.71T1.06T726.82B724.58B
Net Income1.06T1.06T1.04T695.81B374.61B420.48B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets30.88T31.24T32.10T30.59T27.70T27.25T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.01T1.07T1.04T896.90B871.99B848.82B
Total Debt224.96B227.25B227.98B224.40B222.81B219.79B
Total Liabilities25.86T26.13T26.62T25.41T24.04T23.17T
Stockholders Equity5.02T5.08T5.44T5.18T3.63T4.02T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow01.32T571.82B1.05T982.71B1.07T
Operating Cash Flow01.35T619.49B1.07T1.01T1.10T
Investing Cash Flow0164.62B694.01B-627.65B18.19B-665.44B
Financing Cash Flow0-1.19T-677.60B-406.20B-1.01T-504.63B

Tokio Marine Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive
Last Price3.70

Price Trends

50DMA3.49Positive
100DMA3.33Positive
200DMA3.10Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.07Positive
RSI57.78Neutral
STOCH44.68Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TKOMY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.70 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.63, above the 50-day MA of 3.49, and above the 200-day MA of 3.10, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TKOMY.

Tokio Marine Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

TKOMY against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
ALLALL84Outperform$64.61B5.8636.32%1.62%5.06%42.48%
CBCB84Outperform$141.03B12.8615.06%1.07%5.89%19.00%
TRVTRV84Outperform$82.14B10.3126.24%1.18%1.07%50.02%
PGRPGR83Outperform$134.27B11.7335.44%5.95%7.65%8.90%
WRBWRB76Outperform$28.54B16.1418.98%2.45%1.45%-0.85%
TKOMYTKOMY74Outperform$105.98B21.6712.98%1.33%-3.48%-42.16%
Sector *68Neutral$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%20%40%TKOMYCBALLPGRTRVWRBDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
TKOMY and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
TKOMYTokio Marine Holdings3.701.1846.65%
CBChubb Ltd370.3378.4426.87%
ALLAllstate Corp262.1851.9524.71%
PGRThe Progressive Corporation233.5322.1010.45%
TRVTravelers Companies Inc399.46116.5041.17%
WRBW. R. Berkley Corporation76.671.762.35%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 08, 2026