Takeda Pharmaceutical Company (TAK) AI Stock Analysis

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Takeda Pharmaceutical Company

(NYSE:TAK)

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Neutral 59 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:59Neutral

Price Target:

$14.00

▼(-0.57% Downside)

Takeda Pharmaceutical's overall stock score reflects a stable financial position with strong cash flow generation but is weighed down by bearish technical indicators and a high P/E ratio suggesting overvaluation. The earnings call highlighted both strategic advancements and significant challenges, contributing to a mixed outlook. The dividend yield provides some investor appeal, but market and operational challenges persist.

Positive Factors

Strategic Partnerships

The partnership with Innovent Biologics enhances Takeda's oncology pipeline, leveraging synergies to develop transformative cancer treatments, which could strengthen its market position in oncology over the long term.

Cash Flow Generation

Strong cash flow growth enhances Takeda's financial flexibility, allowing for strategic investments and debt management, supporting long-term business sustainability.

Vaccine Development

Successful completion of the TIDES trial for Qdenga positions Takeda to capitalize on global vaccine markets, potentially driving future revenue growth and market expansion.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

Negative revenue growth indicates potential market or operational challenges, which could impact Takeda's ability to maintain its competitive position and financial performance.

Profitability Challenges

Declining net profit margins suggest difficulties in maintaining profitability, which could affect Takeda's ability to reinvest in growth initiatives and sustain long-term competitiveness.

Impairment Losses

Significant impairment losses from discontinued cell therapy efforts highlight resource allocation challenges, potentially impacting future profitability and strategic focus.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company (TAK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$43.43B

Dividend Yield4.41%

Average Volume (3M)2.69M

Price to Earnings (P/E)160.9

Beta (1Y)0.08

Revenue Growth-1.98%

EPS Growth-86.20%

CountryUS

Employees49,281

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength45

IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.03

Shares Outstanding3,181,971,700

10 Day Avg. Volume2,775,063

30 Day Avg. Volume2,685,580

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-2.57

Price to Book (P/B)1.03

Price to Sales (P/S)1.56

P/FCF Ratio8.36

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.68

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.02

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.03

Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.06

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$18.00

Price Target Upside27.84% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering1

EPS Forecast (FY)N/A

Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTakeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited is a global, research and development-driven pharmaceutical company headquartered in Japan. Founded in 1781, Takeda focuses on delivering innovative medicines in key therapeutic areas such as oncology, gastroenterology, neuroscience, rare diseases, and vaccines. The company operates in various segments, including pharmaceuticals and vaccines, with a commitment to improving patient outcomes through groundbreaking research and partnerships.

How the Company Makes MoneyTakeda generates revenue primarily through the sale of prescription pharmaceuticals and vaccines. The company’s revenue model is built on a diversified portfolio of products, which includes both well-established medications and newer, innovative therapies. Key revenue streams comprise direct sales of pharmaceutical products, royalties from licensing agreements, and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies for drug development and commercialization. Significant partnerships, such as collaborations with biotechnology firms and research institutions, enhance Takeda’s pipeline and market presence, contributing to its earnings. Additionally, Takeda has a strategic focus on expanding its operations in emerging markets, which further diversifies its revenue sources.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Geography

Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.

Chart InsightsTakeda's revenue growth in the U.S. and Europe/Canada has been robust, driven by their Growth and Launch Product portfolio, which now makes up 48% of core revenue. Despite challenges like VYVANSE's generic impact and ENTYVIO's underperformance in the U.S., Takeda's strategic focus on biopharmaceutical innovations and operational efficiencies has bolstered their financial position. The company plans significant investments in the U.S. market, aiming to sustain momentum and offset revenue pressures from generic competition and market challenges in China.

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Main Street Data

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Jan 29, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mixed outlook with strong pipeline advancements and strategic partnerships, but was overshadowed by significant losses from VYVANSE's generic impact and currency headwinds affecting profitability.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Growth in Launch Products

Launch products grew 5.3% at constant exchange rate (CER), with expectations for higher growth in the second half of the fiscal year.

Pipeline Advancements

Positive Phase III studies for rusfertide and oveporexton, and expected Phase III data for zasocitinib in psoriasis by the end of the calendar year.

Innovent Biologics Partnership

Strategic partnership with Innovent Biologics to expand oncology pipeline with differentiated assets like IBI363 and IBI343.

Oveporexton's Potential

Oveporexton demonstrates significant improvement in narcolepsy type 1 symptoms and is on track for U.S. filing later in the year.

Strong Cash Flow

Adjusted free cash flow of JPY 525.4 billion, including improvements in working capital.

Negative Updates

VYVANSE Revenue Impact

Loss of exclusivity for VYVANSE resulted in a revenue loss of approximately JPY 100 billion, impacting the first half results.

Currency Headwinds

Transactional foreign exchange impacts, particularly from the euro, affected profitability and led to a slight reduction in profit guidance.

ENTYVIO Growth Revision

ENTYVIO's growth was revised down to 6% at CER due to competitive pressures and slower-than-expected pen conversion.

Impairment Losses

Reported operating profit decreased by 27.7% due to larger impairment losses, including a JPY 58.2 billion expense related to discontinuing cell therapy efforts.

Challenges in China

Albumin sales in China declined slightly due to timing of shipments and cost containment measures, although growth is expected to accelerate in the second half.

Company Guidance

During Takeda's FY 2025 Q2 earnings call, the company provided guidance on several key metrics. The first half of the fiscal year saw a significant impact from the loss of exclusivity (LOE) of VYVANSE, resulting in a revenue loss of approximately JPY 100 billion. Despite this, the company maintained tight OpEx control, which partially offset the impact on corporate profit. Takeda updated its full-year guidance for core operating profit and core EPS due to a headwind from transactional foreign exchange, largely driven by the euro's appreciation. The company reported H1 revenue of over JPY 2.2 trillion, a decrease of 6.9% year-on-year, or 3.9% at constant exchange rates (CER). Core operating profit was JPY 639.2 billion, down 11.2% at actual FX or 8.8% at CER. Reported operating profit stood at JPY 253.6 billion, a 27.7% decline due to larger impairment losses, primarily related to cell therapy discontinuation. The company expects better growth dynamics in H2 as the VYVANSE impact moderates and growth in launch products accelerates. Takeda also highlighted its strategic partnership with Innovent Biologics, which is expected to enrich its late-stage pipeline with promising oncology assets.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Takeda Pharmaceutical demonstrates a stable financial position with strengths in cash flow generation and a balanced leverage profile. However, challenges in revenue growth and profitability margins highlight areas for improvement. The company maintains a solid equity base, supporting long-term stability amidst industry-specific challenges.

Income Statement

Positive

Takeda Pharmaceutical's income statement shows moderate performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is strong at 60.54%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has declined to 3.06%, reflecting challenges in maintaining profitability. Revenue growth has been negative recently, with a -2.21% decline, suggesting potential market or operational challenges. EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable but show room for improvement.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.66, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. The return on equity (ROE) is modest at 1.95%, suggesting limited returns on shareholder investments. The equity ratio is healthy, showing a strong equity base relative to total assets, which enhances financial stability.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trajectory with a 15.98% growth in free cash flow, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.49, suggesting efficient cash conversion from earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.78 reflects a strong ability to generate cash relative to net income, supporting financial flexibility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.48T	4.58T	4.26T	4.03T	3.57T	3.20T
Gross Profit	2.90T	3.00T	2.83T	2.78T	2.46T	2.20T
EBITDA	1.19T	1.21T	1.14T	1.28T	1.18T	983.72B
Net Income	136.88B	107.93B	144.07B	317.02B	230.06B	376.00B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	14.00T	14.25T	15.11T	13.96T	13.18T	12.91T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	419.18B	405.59B	472.89B	553.70B	875.00B	1.00T
Total Debt	5.04T	5.07T	4.84T	4.38T	4.35T	4.64T
Total Liabilities	7.14T	7.31T	7.83T	7.60T	7.49T	7.74T
Stockholders Equity	6.87T	6.94T	7.27T	6.35T	5.68T	5.17T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	883.88B	856.39B	235.61B	343.47B	937.07B	774.46B
Operating Cash Flow	1.10T	1.06T	716.34B	977.16B	1.12T	1.01T
Investing Cash Flow	-243.56B	-367.06B	-463.86B	-607.10B	-198.13B	393.53B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.28T	-751.42B	-354.42B	-709.15B	-1.07T	-1.09T

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price14.08

Price Trends

50DMA

14.53

Negative

100DMA

14.66

Negative

200DMA

14.49

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.27

Positive

RSI

36.98

Neutral

STOCH

39.14

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TAK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.87, below the 50-day MA of 14.53, and below the 200-day MA of 14.49, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TAK.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Risk Analysis

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Takeda Pharmaceutical Company reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (51)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NBIX	80 Outperform	$14.28B	34.20	14.96%	―	19.61%	11.36%
RDY	67 Neutral	$11.29B	16.49	17.72%	0.68%	10.63%	6.35%
HLN	67 Neutral	$41.49B	21.43	9.20%	1.88%	0.58%	45.74%
TEVA	60 Neutral	$23.45B	―	-2.31%	―	2.43%	64.37%
TAK	59 Neutral	$43.43B	160.85	0.54%	4.41%	-1.98%	-86.20%
VTRS	54 Neutral	$12.11B	―	-19.77%	4.58%	-7.47%	-438.39%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TAK

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company

13.56

>-0.01

-0.07%

RDY

Dr Reddy's Laboratories

13.47

-1.54

-10.26%

VTRS

Viatris

10.49

-2.08

-16.55%

NBIX

Neurocrine

153.75

29.77

24.01%

TEVA

Teva Pharmaceutical

20.46

2.96

16.91%

HLN

Haleon PLC Sponsored ADR

9.32

-0.11

-1.17%

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Corporate Events

Takeda Pharmaceutical Reports Decline in Revenue and Profit

Oct 31, 2025

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited is a global pharmaceutical company based in Japan, focusing on research and development in areas such as oncology, gastroenterology, and neuroscience. It is listed on multiple stock exchanges, including Tokyo and Nagoya.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 03, 2025