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Neurocrine
(NASDAQ:NBIX)
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Rating:81Outperform
Price Target:
$193.00
▲(25.84% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/01/26
The score is driven primarily by very strong financial performance (high margins, strong free cash flow, and low leverage). Earnings-call updates were supportive with raised guidance and strong commercial execution, though tempered by acquisition-related costs and integration/launch variability. Technicals are mixed due to a near-term pullback below the 20-day average, and valuation is mid-range with a ~23.7 P/E and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue growth and expanding profitability
Sustained revenue expansion and improving operating leverage indicate strong product economics and execution. The approximately 98% gross margin supports durable earnings generation, although future growth will depend on maintaining demand and commercialization momentum.
Negative Factors
Revenue growth is decelerating
Slower underlying growth makes future performance more dependent on successful launches, acquired products and pipeline conversion. If mature-product expansion moderates further, operating leverage and investor confidence in the company’s long-term growth profile could weaken.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue growth and expanding profitability
Sustained revenue expansion and improving operating leverage indicate strong product economics and execution. The approximately 98% gross margin supports durable earnings generation, although future growth will depend on maintaining demand and commercialization momentum.
Read all positive factors
Neurocrine Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how revenue is distributed across different business areas, highlighting which segments are driving growth and which may need strategic focus or improvement.
Shows how revenue is distributed across different business areas, highlighting which segments are driving growth and which may need strategic focus or improvement.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNeurocrine (NBIX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$15.56B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.14M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.7
Beta (1Y)0.64
Revenue Growth34.42%
EPS Growth102.44%
CountryUS
Employees2,500
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.05
Shares Outstanding101,649,180
10 Day Avg. Volume1,104,431
30 Day Avg. Volume1,138,687
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.71
Price to Book (P/B)4.34
Price to Sales (P/S)4.93
P/FCF Ratio18.85
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$210.60Price Target Upside37.31% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering26
EPS Forecast (FY)7.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.90B
Neurocrine Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. is a pharmaceutical firm dedicated to the creation, advancement, and commercialization of medicines addressing a spectrum of neurological, endocrine, and psychiatric conditions. Its current therapeutic pipeline and mar...
How the Company Makes Money
Neurocrine primarily generates revenue from product sales of its commercial medicines, recorded as net product sales (after typical deductions such as rebates, chargebacks, and returns). A second major revenue stream comes from collaboration-relat...
Neurocrine Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong commercial execution and significant growth: near-record quarterly sales, raised INGREZZA guidance, sustained CRENESSITY launch momentum, immediate accretion from the VYKAT XR acquisition, and a deep pipeline with material Phase 3 catalysts in 2027. Key negatives are near-term GAAP headwinds and cash use from the ~$2.9B acquisition, early-stage launch variability and discontinuations for VYKAT XR, and lingering policy/pipeline outcome uncertainties that could create EPS variability. Overall, the positive operational and pipeline developments outweigh the transitional and financial integration challenges.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong YoY Growth
Total revenue exceeded $950 million in Q2 FY26, representing nearly 40% year-over-year growth; pro forma total revenues (including a full quarter of VYKAT XR) were $998 million.
Negative Updates
Acquisition-Related Charges and GAAP Impact
Soleno acquisition (~$2.9 billion) generated approximately $150 million of expected acquisition-related costs (about $130 million recognized in Q2) plus noncash purchase accounting amortization and inventory step-up of ~ $20 million in Q2, which weigh on GAAP results.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong YoY Growth
Total revenue exceeded $950 million in Q2 FY26, representing nearly 40% year-over-year growth; pro forma total revenues (including a full quarter of VYKAT XR) were $998 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised full‑year INGREZZA guidance to $2.825–$2.875 billion (midpoint ≈13% YoY) after a Q2 in which total revenue topped $950M (nearly 40% YoY) and non‑GAAP EPS was $2.85; Q2 product results included INGREZZA $716M (+15% YoY), CRENESSITY $184M (≈15% of estimated diagnosed CAH patients now treated), and pro forma VYKAT XR $94M (Neurocrine recognized $54M since the May 18 close), producing pro forma Q2 revenues of $998M and combined quarterly sales approaching $1B (annualizing ≈$4B). The company completed the Soleno acquisition for ~$2.9B financed with cash, ended Q2 with ~$500M cash and no debt, updated operating expense guidance to include Soleno operating, transaction and integration costs, and expects ~ $150M of acquisition‑related costs in 2026 (≈$130M recognized in Q2) plus ~ $20M of GAAP purchase accounting amortization; management also expects sequential VYKAT XR growth exiting 2026 and remains on track for multiple Phase 3 readouts in H2 2027.Neurocrine Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
92
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
90
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.37B | 2.86B | 2.36B | 1.89B | 1.49B | 1.13B |
| Gross Profit | 3.31B | 2.81B | 2.32B | 1.85B | 1.47B | 1.12B |
| EBITDA | 918.10M | 666.60M | 639.70M | 416.10M | 236.60M | 138.10M |
| Net Income | 705.50M | 478.60M | 341.30M | 249.70M | 154.50M | 89.60M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.36B | 4.63B | 3.72B | 3.25B | 2.37B | 2.07B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 389.80M | 1.48B | 1.08B | 1.03B | 989.30M | 711.30M |
| Total Debt | 401.80M | 415.30M | 455.10M | 428.40M | 262.90M | 440.40M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.67B | 1.38B | 1.13B | 1.02B | 660.90M | 698.50M |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.69B | 3.25B | 2.59B | 2.23B | 1.71B | 1.37B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 870.40M | 748.70M | 557.20M | 361.60M | 322.90M | 233.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 898.10M | 782.70M | 595.40M | 389.90M | 339.40M | 256.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -891.20M | -264.40M | -126.80M | -467.10M | -177.10M | -130.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 60.20M | -38.30M | -486.70M | 65.30M | -234.30M | 27.40M |
Neurocrine Technical Analysis
Neutral
153.37
Price Trends
166.56
Negative
156.28
Positive
147.22
Positive
Market Momentum
-4.26
Positive
43.80
Neutral
56.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBIX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 153.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 159.45, below the 50-day MA of 166.56, and above the 200-day MA of 147.22, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NBIX.
Neurocrine Risk Analysis
Neurocrine disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Neurocrine reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Neurocrine Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $15.56B | 21.71 | 21.13% | ― | 34.42% | 102.44% | |
71 Outperform | $43.38B | 57.73 | 9.28% | ― | 4.33% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $990.97M | 70.60 | 2.13% | ― | 5.71% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $915.42M | 12.63 | 10.11% | ― | 1.02% | -38.09% | |
62 Neutral | $10.47B | 29.96 | 8.88% | 0.95% | -6.76% | -44.35% | |
59 Neutral | $19.00B | -45.94 | -2.79% | 2.78% | 4.92% | 87.81% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
NBIX
Neurocrine
153.37
15.24
11.03%
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12.34
-1.82
-12.87%
VTRS
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PCRX
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25.53
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-2.30%
TEVA
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38.10
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AMPH
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals
21.98
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Neurocrine Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Neurocrine Shareholders Reelect Directors and Approve Governance Measures
Positive
May 28, 2026
At its Annual Meeting on May 27, 2026, Neurocrine stockholders elected three Class III directors—Kevin C. Gorman, Gary A. Lyons and Johanna Mercier—to new three-year terms ending with the 2029 shareholder meeting, while existing Class ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.