Neurocrine (NBIX) AI Stock Analysis

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Neurocrine

(NASDAQ:NBIX)

75Outperform

Neurocrine's stock score reflects its strong financial performance and optimistic growth outlook despite competitive pressures. The technical indicators show current bearish trends, and valuation metrics suggest potential overvaluation. Corporate strategy, including the Takeda agreement, supports long-term growth prospects.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

NBIX's current valuation at ~$10bn is viewed as very attractive.

Market Expansion

NBIX is expected to gain momentum with increased visibility into Crenessity's growth and execution on Ingrezza, along with potential value creation from its pipeline assets.

Product Potential

Ingrezza remains a very meaningful product with solid patent life and 2025E sales outlook at $2.5-2.6bn.

Negative Factors

Market Dynamics

Concerns about Ingrezza's market dynamics are considered overblown, but they have contributed to a pullback in NBIX stock.

Product Competition

A number of patients were switched from Ingrezza to Austedo XR, with reimbursement being a significant reason for the switch.

Sales Performance

The company expects a weaker first quarter due to several sales headwinds, but anticipates a recovery and growth reacceleration later in the year.

Neurocrine (NBIX) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$10.85B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.63M

Price to Earnings (P/E)33.3

Beta (1Y)0.64

Revenue Growth24.81%

EPS Growth33.67%

CountryUS

Employees1,800

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength56

IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.08

Shares Outstanding98,938,230

10 Day Avg. Volume1,375,512

30 Day Avg. Volume1,632,153

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.24

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.80

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$156.65

Price Target Upside42.82% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering21

Neurocrine Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNeurocrine Biosciences, Inc. discovers, develops, and markets pharmaceuticals for neurological, endocrine, and psychiatric disorders. The company's portfolio includes treatments for tardive dyskinesia, Parkinson's disease, endometriosis, and uterine fibroids, as well as clinical programs in various therapeutic areas. Its lead asset is INGREZZA, a VMAT2 inhibitor for the treatment of tardive dyskinesia. The company's commercial products include ONGENTYS, a catechol-O-methyltransferase inhibitor used as an adjunct therapy to levodopa/DOPA decarboxylase inhibitors for patients with Parkinson's disease; ORILISSA for the management of moderate to severe endometriosis pain in women; and ORIAHNN, a non-surgical oral medication option for the management of heavy menstrual bleeding associated with uterine fibroids in pre-menopausal women. Its product candidates in clinical development include NBI-921352 for treating pediatric patients, as well as adult focal epilepsy indications; and NBI-827104 to treat rare pediatric epilepsy and essential tremor. The company's products in clinical development also comprise NBI-1065845 for the treatment of major depressive disorder; NBI-1065846 for treating anhedonia in major depressive disorder; and NBI-118568 for the treatment of schizophrenia. It has license and collaboration agreements with Heptares Therapeutics Limited; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited; Idorsia Pharmaceuticals Ltd; Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc.; Voyager Therapeutics, Inc.; BIAL Portela & Ca, S.A.; Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation; and AbbVie Inc. Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyNeurocrine Biosciences generates revenue primarily through the sales of its FDA-approved products, with INGREZZA being a significant contributor to its income due to its market presence and demand for treating tardive dyskinesia. Additionally, Neurocrine earns revenue from collaborative agreements and partnerships, such as its collaboration with AbbVie for ORILISSA, where it receives royalties and milestone payments. The company's earnings are further supported by strategic licensing agreements and research collaborations that enhance its product pipeline and expand its market reach. Neurocrine's revenue model is built on a strong foundation of proprietary drug development, strategic partnerships, and a focus on addressing niche therapeutic areas with high unmet needs.

Neurocrine Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Segment

Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and profitability, and indicating the company's strategic focus and market opportunities.

Chart InsightsNeurocrine's Ingrezza segment has shown robust growth, with 2024 marking a record year, reflecting a $475 million increase in sales. Despite competitive pressures, the company is strategically expanding its sales force and educational efforts to capture the large untreated market. The launch of Quinicity, while initially slow due to reimbursement challenges, holds long-term blockbuster potential. Neurocrine's focus on expanding its neuroscience pipeline and advancing innovative treatments positions it well for sustained growth, although initial disruptions from salesforce expansion may temper early 2025 performance.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Neurocrine Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Neurocrine exhibits strong financial performance characterized by impressive revenue growth, high profitability margins, and sound financial stability. The company's cash flow generation is robust, supporting its growth trajectory. Overall, Neurocrine is well-positioned with efficient operations and a solid balance sheet, though continuous monitoring of leverage is advisable.

Income Statement

―

Neurocrine's revenue has shown significant growth with a strong revenue growth rate year-over-year, indicating robust expansion. The gross profit margin is exceptionally high, showcasing efficient cost management. The net profit margin has improved, reflecting enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid, indicating operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a healthy debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting manageable leverage. Return on equity has improved, reflecting effective use of equity financing. The equity ratio indicates a solid proportion of equity financing in the asset base, ensuring financial stability.

Cash Flow

―

Neurocrine demonstrates a strong growth in free cash flow, which supports its expanding operations. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, indicating good cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, highlighting efficient capital expenditure management.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.36B	1.89B	1.49B	1.13B	1.05B
	Gross Profit
2.32B	1.85B	1.47B	1.12B	1.04B
	EBIT
570.50M	250.90M	249.00M	196.90M	318.90M
	EBITDA
610.10M	358.00M	264.60M	218.70M	336.10M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
341.30M	249.70M	154.50M	89.60M	407.30M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.08B	1.03B	989.30M	711.30M	801.00M
	Total Assets
3.72B	3.25B	2.37B	2.07B	1.73B
	Total Debt
455.10M	428.40M	262.90M	440.40M	412.30M
	Net Debt
222.10M	177.30M	0.00	99.60M	-388.70M
	Total Liabilities
1.13B	1.02B	660.90M	698.50M	608.50M
	Stockholders Equity
2.59B	2.23B	1.71B	1.37B	1.13B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
557.20M	361.60M	322.90M	233.10M	217.60M
	Operating Cash Flow
595.40M	389.90M	339.40M	256.50M	228.50M
	Investing Cash Flow
-126.80M	-467.10M	-177.10M	-130.20M	4.10M
	Financing Cash Flow
-486.70M	65.30M	-234.30M	27.40M	-157.80M

Neurocrine Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price109.68

Price Trends

50DMA

107.62

Positive

100DMA

121.90

Negative

200DMA

125.17

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.24

Negative

RSI

58.90

Neutral

STOCH

85.43

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBIX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 109.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 100.08, above the 50-day MA of 107.62, and below the 200-day MA of 125.17, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.43 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NBIX.

Neurocrine Risk Analysis

Neurocrine disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Neurocrine reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Neurocrine Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (52)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RDY	77 Outperform	$11.71B	18.19	18.51%	0.58%	13.26%	1.33%
NBIX	75 Outperform	$10.85B	33.33	14.16%	―	24.81%	33.67%
ITCI	63 Neutral	$14.05B	―	-8.58%	―	46.62%	50.50%
PRGO	53 Neutral	$3.50B	―	-3.53%	4.36%	-6.05%	-1677.05%
VTRS	52 Neutral	$10.26B	―	-3.24%	5.55%	-4.58%	-1269.23%
Sector *	52 Neutral	$5.35B	3.81	-42.57%	2.86%	17.10%	1.33%
TEVA	50 Neutral	$17.52B	―	-25.44%	―	4.34%	-206.85%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NBIX

Neurocrine

109.68

-32.03

-22.60%

RDY

Dr Reddy's Laboratories

14.00

-0.90

-6.04%

VTRS

Viatris

8.65

-2.67

-23.59%

PRGO

Perrigo Company

25.63

-6.51

-20.26%

TEVA

Teva Pharmaceutical

16.19

2.13

15.15%

ITCI

Intra-Cellular Therapies

131.87

60.86

85.71%

Neurocrine Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2025

(Q4-2024)

% Change Since: -27.13%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted Neurocrine's strong performance in 2024 with record sales for INGREZZA and the successful launch of Quinicity. While there are challenges, such as increased competitive pressure and a measured launch for Quinicity, the company is taking proactive steps to address these issues. The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic with a focus on growth and expansion in the neuroscience field.

Q4-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Sales Growth for INGREZZA

2024 was a record growth year for INGREZZA, with annual sales increasing by approximately $475 million.

Quinicity Launch and FDA Approval

Quinicity received early FDA approval with a broad labeling, marking it as the first new treatment for congenital adrenal hyperplasia in over 70 years.

Expanded Neuroscience Pipeline

Neurocrine's pipeline is set to grow from 12 to 18 programs by year-end, representing one of the broadest neuroscience pipelines in the industry.

Negative Updates

Increased Competitive Pressure

The company faced increased competitive pressure and utilization management by payers, leading to a slower growth trajectory heading into 2025.

Measured Launch for Quinicity

Quinicity's initial growth is expected to be measured due to delayed reimbursement timing, frequency of patient flow, and real-world experience trialing.

Salesforce Disruption

The expansion of the salesforce in Q4 led to some disruptions, which are expected to impact the growth trajectory initially in 2025.

Company Guidance

During the call, Neurocrine Biosciences provided guidance for 2025, anticipating INGREZZA sales to reach between $2.5 billion and $2.6 billion, which represents an approximate $250 million growth at the midpoint compared to 2024. Although facing increased competitive pressure and utilization management by payers, the company remains focused on growing its market presence through an expanded sales force and educational efforts, aiming to address the 90% of tardive dyskinesia (TD) patients untreated with VMAT2 inhibitors. Additionally, the company expects the launch of Quinicity, targeting classical congenital adrenal hyperplasia, to have a blockbuster potential long-term, although initial revenue growth is expected to be measured due to reimbursement and patient flow dynamics. Looking ahead, Neurocrine aims to expand its clinical stage pipeline from 12 to 18 programs by year-end, with significant growth anticipated from innovative treatments in major depressive disorder and schizophrenia. The company is also aligning its 2025 SG&A and R&D expenditures to support these growth initiatives and anticipates advancing its osuvamphetor program into phase three while funding development milestones for Takeda and Nexera.

Neurocrine Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes

Neurocrine Biosciences Appoints Dr. Keswani as CMO

Neutral

Apr 4, 2025

Neurocrine Biosciences announced the appointment of Dr. Sanjay Keswani as Chief Medical Officer effective June 2, 2025, succeeding Dr. Eiry W. Roberts, who will remain as a strategic advisor. Dr. Keswani brings over 20 years of pharmaceutical industry experience and will lead clinical development and medical affairs, enhancing the company’s capabilities as it explores new therapeutic modalities.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.