Steel Dynamics (STLD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $19.07B
• Dividend Yield: 1.56%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.52M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.18
• Revenue Growth: -7.42%
• EPS Growth: -48.08%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,000
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 63
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): 1.44
• Shares Outstanding: 148,453,870
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,604,055
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,524,575
• PEG Ratio: 0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.20
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.05
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.02
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.27
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.39
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.88
• 1Y Price Target: $148.00
• Price Target Upside: 15.19% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $139.00 ▲(8.19%Upside)

Steel Dynamics' overall stock score reflects a combination of strong earnings performance and strategic growth initiatives, balanced against challenges in revenue growth and liquidity. The robust earnings outlook and operational efficiencies are significant positives, while technical indicators and valuation suggest caution.

Positive Factors

Free Cash Flow Generation

The completion of the company’s capex cycle on its two major recent investments clears the way for higher through-the-cycle free cash flow generation.

Section 232 Tariffs

Steel Dynamics is a best-in-class domestic US steel producer, with a product portfolio that is relatively well-positioned to benefit from expanded Section 232 tariffs.

Sinton Turnaround

Sinton, which has been a material drag on earnings since 2022, is on the cusp of turning around and should start contributing to earnings.

Negative Factors

Asset Write-Off

The company announced a $32 million noncash asset write-off in their steel segment business.

Earnings Guidance

STLD shares are expected to underperform due to worse than expected guidance.

Steel Fabrication Profits

Profits from the steel fabrication segment are guided to be lower due to steady shipments and spread compression.

Steel Dynamics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Steel Dynamics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States. It operates through three segments: Steel Operations, Metals Recycling Operations, and Steel Fabrication Operations. The Steel Operations segment offers hot roll, cold roll, and coated steel products; parallel flange beams and channel sections, flat bars, large unequal leg angles, and reinforcing bars, as well as standard strength carbon, intermediate alloy hardness, and premium grade rail products; and engineered special-bar-quality products, merchant-bar-quality products, and other engineered round steel bars. The company also engages in turning, polishing, straightening, chamfering, threading, precision saw-cutting, and heat treating of bar products; and cutting to length, straightening, hole punching, shot blasting, welding, galvanizing, and coating of specialty products. Its products are used in construction, automotive, manufacturing, transportation, heavy and agriculture equipment, and pipe and tube markets. This segment sells directly to end-users, steel fabricators, and service centers. The Metals Recycling Operations segment purchases, processes, and resells ferrous and nonferrous scrap metals into reusable forms and grades. Its ferrous products include heavy melting steel, busheling, bundled scrap, shredded scrap, steel turnings, and cast-iron products; and nonferrous products comprise aluminum, brass, copper, stainless steel, and other nonferrous metals. This segment also provides transportation logistics, marketing, brokerage, and scrap management services. The Steel Fabrication Operations segment produces non-residential steel building components, such as steel joists, girders, trusses, and steel deck products. The company also exports its products. Steel Dynamics, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Fort Wayne, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Steel Dynamics makes money through its diversified operations in steel production, metal recycling, and steel fabrication. The steel operations segment generates revenue by producing and selling a variety of steel products, such as hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and coated steel products, to customers in sectors like automotive, construction, and manufacturing. The metals recycling segment contributes revenue by processing and selling ferrous and non-ferrous scrap to steel mills and foundries. The steel fabrication segment generates income through the production and sale of steel joists, girders, and other fabricated products used primarily in non-residential construction. The company's strategic acquisitions and investments in technology and capacity expansion also play a significant role in enhancing its revenue-generating capabilities.

Steel Dynamics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Steel Dynamics presents a stable financial position with strong balance sheet metrics, including a moderate debt-to-equity ratio and solid return on equity. However, declining revenue and profitability margins in the trailing twelve months (TTM) highlight challenges in maintaining growth. The negative free cash flow poses concerns about liquidity management.

Income Statement

Steel Dynamics shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM revenue shows a decline compared to the previous annual figures, indicating some challenges in maintaining growth. The gross profit margin stands at 13.36% for TTM, which is moderate but shows a decline compared to last year. Net profit margin for TTM is 6.80%, also lower than the previous year, suggesting reduced profitability. The EBITDA margin of 10.93% in TTM reflects a solid operational efficiency despite declining revenue.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Steel Dynamics is strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.48 in TTM, indicating moderate leverage. The equity ratio of 55.39% suggests a robust capital structure, providing a cushion against liabilities. Return on equity for TTM is 13.26%, showing a respectable return on shareholders' investment, though it has declined from previous periods.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals some challenges with free cash flow being negative in TTM despite positive operating cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio for TTM is 1.40, indicating solid cash generation relative to net income. However, the inability to generate positive free cash flow poses a risk and may affect future investments or debt repayments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	17.22B	17.54B	18.80B	22.26B	18.41B	9.60B
Gross Profit	2.31B	2.80B	4.05B	6.12B	5.36B	1.43B
EBITDA	2.03B	2.52B	3.73B	5.50B	4.61B	1.19B
Net Income	1.17B	1.54B	2.45B	3.86B	3.21B	550.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.93B	14.94B	14.91B	14.16B	12.53B	9.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.21B	737.27M	2.12B	2.26B	1.24B	1.37B
Total Debt	4.20B	3.23B	3.20B	3.07B	3.11B	3.10B
Total Liabilities	7.10B	5.99B	6.07B	6.06B	6.21B	4.92B
Stockholders Equity	8.82B	8.93B	8.87B	8.13B	6.30B	4.35B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-157.31M	-23.50M	1.86B	3.55B	1.20B	-211.02M
Operating Cash Flow	1.64B	1.84B	3.52B	4.46B	2.20B	987.03M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.19B	-1.30B	-1.97B	-1.88B	-999.42M	-993.26M
Financing Cash Flow	-305.46M	-1.35B	-1.78B	-2.20B	-1.33B	-7.05M

Steel Dynamics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 128.48
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STLD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 128.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 130.82, below the 50-day MA of 129.32, and above the 200-day MA of 127.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.43 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for STLD.

Steel Dynamics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RS	78 Outperform	$16.25B	22.15	10.27%	1.55%	-5.60%	-35.05%
PKX	76 Outperform	$14.32B	23.19	1.64%	2.80%	-8.83%	-43.85%
NUE	73 Outperform	$29.07B	22.43	6.54%	1.72%	-10.88%	-66.97%
STLD	71 Outperform	$19.07B	16.95	13.08%	1.56%	-7.42%	-48.08%
MT	67 Neutral	$25.50B	18.23	2.60%	0.75%	-8.56%	68.36%
X	64 Neutral	$12.42B	186.15	0.86%	0.36%	-14.79%	-88.78%
Sector *	44 Neutral	C$958.62M	-6.68	-13.31%	2.80%	17.55%	-32.28%

Steel Dynamics Corporate Events

Steel Dynamics Projects Strong Q2 2025 Earnings Growth

On June 18, 2025, Steel Dynamics announced its second quarter 2025 earnings guidance, projecting earnings per diluted share between $2.00 and $2.04, compared to $1.44 in the first quarter and $2.72 in the previous year’s second quarter. The company’s steel operations are expected to see improved profitability due to expanded metal spreads and increased steel pricing, despite a $32 million noncash write-off. Metals recycling earnings are anticipated to remain steady, while steel fabrication earnings may decline due to increased raw material costs. The company also continues to advance its aluminum operations, with successful commissioning in Mississippi and Mexico, and plans to start shipping mid-2025. Additionally, Steel Dynamics repurchased $179 million of its common stock during the second quarter.

The most recent analyst rating on (STLD) stock is a Buy with a $158.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Steel Dynamics stock, see the STLD Stock Forecast page.

Steel Dynamics Announces Leadership Transition in Aluminum Group

On May 9, 2025, Steel Dynamics announced leadership transitions as Glenn Pushis will retire on October 1, 2025, to become CEO of McBride Capital Partners’ Project Aero, while continuing as a consultant for Steel Dynamics’ new aluminum facilities. Miguel Alvarez will take over as Senior Vice President Aluminum Group, overseeing the company’s aluminum operations and strategic investments. These changes reflect Steel Dynamics’ commitment to leadership development and its strategic focus on aluminum operations, which are expected to enhance its market positioning and operational capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (STLD) stock is a Buy with a $158.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Steel Dynamics stock, see the STLD Stock Forecast page.