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Stem Inc
(NYSE:STEM)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$3.50
▼(-37.61% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/26/26
STEM’s score is held back primarily by weak financial quality—especially negative equity with substantial debt—and continuing net losses, alongside a clearly bearish technical setup (price below all major moving averages with negative MACD). The main support comes from the earnings call’s improving operating trajectory (record margins, sustained positive adjusted EBITDA, and positive/near-breakeven operating cash flow) and reaffirmed guidance, but execution risk remains high due to revenue volatility and H2 hardware-resale timing dependence.
Positive Factors
Improving margins and EBITDA
Record gross margin and five consecutive quarters of positive adjusted EBITDA indicate meaningful operating improvement and better product mix. If sustained, these gains can strengthen earnings quality, support reinvestment in software, and reduce the company’s dependence on low-margin hardware activity.
Negative Factors
Negative equity and elevated debt
Negative equity and debt exceeding the asset base materially weaken balance-sheet resilience. This structure leaves less capacity to absorb operating setbacks, limits strategic flexibility, and increases the importance of consistent cash generation or additional financing to meet obligations and fund growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving margins and EBITDA
Record gross margin and five consecutive quarters of positive adjusted EBITDA indicate meaningful operating improvement and better product mix. If sustained, these gains can strengthen earnings quality, support reinvestment in software, and reduce the company’s dependence on low-margin hardware activity.
Read all positive factors
Stem Inc Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Profit by Segment
Shows the profitability of each business segment, highlighting which areas are driving earnings and which may need strategic adjustments.
Shows the profitability of each business segment, highlighting which areas are driving earnings and which may need strategic adjustments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyStem Inc (STEM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$33.50M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)165.31K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.27
Revenue Growth-5.11%
EPS Growth-161.56%
CountryUS
Employees423
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRenewable Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-8.54
Shares Outstanding9,626,744
10 Day Avg. Volume140,737
30 Day Avg. Volume165,315
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)-0.50
Price to Sales (P/S)0.80
P/FCF Ratio18.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap11.90
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.69
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.05
Enterprise Value/Ebitda188.72
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.56Price Target Upside16.98% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-6.63
Revenue Forecast (FY)$151.11M
Stem Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Stem, Inc. operates internationally as a prominent provider of intelligent, digitally interconnected energy storage networks. The company delivers energy storage systems, which it sources from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Central to it...
How the Company Makes Money
Stem primarily generates revenue from (1) software (including subscriptions/licenses and related software services) tied to its AI-driven energy management platform used to monitor, control, and optimize energy storage and other DERs, and (2) ener...
Stem Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights a clear operational inflection: record non-GAAP margins (55%), five consecutive quarters of positive adjusted EBITDA with strong YoY improvement (+63%), operating cash flow turned positive, bookings and ARR growth, successful international utility-scale wins, product awards, and a new AI services launch. These positives are tempered by a 12% YoY decline in total revenue driven largely by a sharp reduction in battery hardware resale in Q2, a 34% YoY decline in managed services (driven by timing of deployments), and continued dependence on second-half battery resale timing which creates a wide full-year revenue range and potential margin mix pressure. On balance, the operational improvements, margin expansion, cash-flow inflection, product validation, and bookings momentum notably outweigh the revenue timing and mix headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Non-GAAP Gross Margin
Non-GAAP gross margin reached a record 55% in Q2 2026, up from 49% in Q2 2025 and above the company guidance range (40%–50%) for the first half, driven by a higher mix of software, services, and edge hardware versus low battery hardware resales.
Negative Updates
Total Revenue Decline
Total revenue was $34M in Q2 2026, down 12% YoY from $38M in Q2 2025. Nearly all of the decline was due to a sharp drop in battery hardware resale revenue.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Non-GAAP Gross Margin
Non-GAAP gross margin reached a record 55% in Q2 2026, up from 49% in Q2 2025 and above the company guidance range (40%–50%) for the first half, driven by a higher mix of software, services, and edge hardware versus low battery hardware resales.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Stem reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance: total revenue $140–$190M, with software, services and edge hardware $130–$150M and battery hardware resales up to $40M (weighted to H2 and expected to trend toward the lower end); non‑GAAP gross margin 40%–50% (company expects to track toward the higher end given lower battery resale mix), adjusted EBITDA $10–$15M (tracking toward the high end), operating cash flow $0–$10M, and year‑end ARR $65–$70M; management noted product margin assumptions driving this outlook—PowerTrack ~75%, edge hardware ~45–47%, and battery resale ~10–11%.Stem Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
29
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 148.03M | 156.27M | 144.58M | 461.51M | 362.98M | 127.37M |
| Gross Profit | 56.56M | 59.96M | -11.06M | 3.67M | 33.09M | 1.25M |
| EBITDA | 2.11M | 207.18M | -790.40M | -78.73M | -83.31M | -59.34M |
| Net Income | -73.08M | 137.76M | -854.01M | -140.41M | -124.05M | -101.21M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 279.77M | 308.89M | 437.36M | 1.36B | 1.42B | 1.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 38.41M | 48.91M | 56.30M | 113.59M | 249.98M | 920.79M |
| Total Debt | 366.45M | 325.25M | 542.02M | 537.04M | 463.05M | 346.93M |
| Total Liabilities | 549.77M | 557.95M | 835.19M | 930.30M | 869.73M | 524.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | -270.00M | -249.44M | -398.37M | 426.20M | 551.63M | 667.83M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.80M | 6.86M | -48.42M | -225.61M | -110.13M | -111.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 11.63M | 6.86M | -36.65M | -207.38M | -106.03M | -101.27M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.68M | -6.76M | -3.52M | 135.73M | -543.83M | -185.23M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -8.93M | -7.41M | -8.44M | 90.24M | -9.81M | 1.03B |
Stem Inc Technical Analysis
Negative
5.61
Price Trends
4.95
Negative
6.09
Negative
9.10
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.34
Positive
33.48
Neutral
7.93
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STEM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.61 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.15, above the 50-day MA of 4.95, and below the 200-day MA of 9.10, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.93 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for STEM.
Stem Inc Risk Analysis
Stem Inc disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Stem Inc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Stem Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $6.08B | 17.67 | 18.48% | 0.64% | 3.73% | 7.60% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
62 Neutral | $4.05B | 30.02 | 12.28% | ― | -10.41% | -22.03% | |
47 Neutral | $33.50M | -0.41 | 28.62% | ― | -5.11% | -161.56% | |
43 Neutral | $207.38M | -0.72 | -118.17% | ― | 530.37% | -198.37% | |
42 Neutral | $1.07B | -9.67 | -20.75% | ― | 7.46% | -329.43% |
* Utilities Sector Average
STEM
Stem Inc
3.48
-21.11
-85.85%
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ZENA
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1.03
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Stem Inc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Stem Inc issues Regulation FD performance update
Neutral
Aug 12, 2026
On August 12, 2026, Stem Inc. announced it had issued a press release detailing information that was furnished to investors but explicitly structured so it would not be treated as filed under Section 18 of the Exchange Act. The company also direct...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.