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Surf Air Mobility, Inc.
(NYSE:SRFM)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$1.00
▲(44.93% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/07/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (large ongoing losses, negative operating cash flow, and negative equity). Offsetting this are improving operational/strategic signals from the earnings call (better EBITDA-loss outlook, liquidity actions, and early SurfOS traction) and supportive near-term technical momentum, while valuation provides limited support given negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Revenue Expansion
Revenue guidance of $128–$138 million, representing 20–30% growth versus 2025, indicates continued demand expansion across the platform. If delivered, this scale can improve fixed-cost absorption and create a larger base for airline, charter, and software monetization over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Deep Ongoing Losses
Despite substantial revenue growth, SRFM remains deeply unprofitable: TTM net loss was about $112.5 million, net margin around -102%, and EBIT about -$74.5 million. Persistent losses indicate that scale has not yet produced sustainable operating leverage and could continue consuming capital.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Expansion
Revenue guidance of $128–$138 million, representing 20–30% growth versus 2025, indicates continued demand expansion across the platform. If delivered, this scale can improve fixed-cost absorption and create a larger base for airline, charter, and software monetization over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. (SRFM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$125.65M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)7.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.87
Revenue Growth3.14%
EPS Growth48.61%
CountryUS
Employees506
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.14
Shares Outstanding132,848,720
10 Day Avg. Volume8,767,572
30 Day Avg. Volume7,002,883
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)-1.24
Price to Sales (P/S)0.64
P/FCF Ratio-0.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.48
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.68
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-227.90
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-2.50
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.19Price Target Upside651.81% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.76
Revenue Forecast (FY)$128.87M
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Surf Air Mobility Inc. is a U.S.-based company specializing in electric aviation and broader air travel services. The firm provides an air mobility platform that includes both regular, scheduled flight routes and customized, on-demand charter serv...
How the Company Makes Money
Surf Air Mobility’s revenue model is primarily tied to providing air transportation and aviation services. Key revenue streams include: (1) Passenger and charter flight revenue: income generated from selling seats and/or operating on-demand charte...
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted meaningful operational and strategic progress: revenue growth, strong Surf On Demand momentum, a landmark SurfOS enterprise contract (Wheels Up), substantial debt reduction (convertible principal down ~64%, total debt down ~50%), an expanded Palantir partnership accelerating product deployment, and operational reliability improvements. Management tightened adjusted EBITDA guidance (40% improvement vs. prior guidance) and reaffirmed full-year revenue growth targets (20%–30%). Key near-term challenges remain: the company is still loss-making on adjusted EBITDA, scheduled service revenue was intentionally reduced (~20% YoY), fuel and weather imposed short-term headwinds (~$0.5M fuel variance), legacy low-margin commitments compress margins, and there is an NYSE minimum price deficiency that must be cured. On balance, the set of strategic wins, improving liquidity and clear path to higher-margin SurfOS revenue and improved charter economics outweigh the ongoing losses and operational headwinds, supporting a constructive near-term outlook if management can convert pipeline opportunities and sustain margin improvements.Positive Updates
Quarterly Revenue and Guidance
Q2 revenue $29.5M (at high end of guidance), up ~8% YoY and ~15% QoQ. Reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $128M–$138M (20%–30% growth vs. 2025).
Negative Updates
Continued Adjusted EBITDA Losses
Q2 adjusted EBITDA loss of $10.5M and full-year adjusted EBITDA loss guidance of $25M–$30M remain materially negative despite improvements; near-term guidance still shows negative profitability (Q3 loss guidance $7M–$4M).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Revenue and Guidance
Q2 revenue $29.5M (at high end of guidance), up ~8% YoY and ~15% QoQ. Reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $128M–$138M (20%–30% growth vs. 2025).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Surf Air reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance of $128–$138 million in revenue (up 20–30% versus 2025) and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $30–$25 million (a ~40% improvement versus prior guidance), with Q3 revenue expected at $35.5–$37.5 million and Q3 adjusted EBITDA loss of $7–$4 million and further narrowing in Q4; Q2 actuals were $29.5 million revenue (high end of guidance $27–$30M) and a $10.5 million adjusted EBITDA loss (within range), +8% YoY and +15% QoQ. Management expects improved free cash flow conversion as the heavy maintenance/CapEx cycle winds down, the airline to be a profitability bright spot in H2, SurfOS to contribute incremental revenue (Wheels Up deal worth up to $12M over the term with ~ $2M expected in 2026), On Demand momentum (Q2 On Demand revenue $12.1M, departures +67% YoY, revenue per departure +25% YoY, H1 charter nearly doubled YoY, new lines ~14% of H1 revenue), and strengthened liquidity via refinancing (convertible principal down 64%, total debt down ~50% YoY, $17M new convertible note due 2027, $30M nonconvertible term note due 2028, $21.6M asset‑backed loan with a $14M tranche expected).Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
12
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
10
Very Negative
Cash Flow
14
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 110.74M | 106.56M | 119.42M | 60.51M | 20.27M | 11.80M |
| Gross Profit | -815.00K | 4.18M | 9.49M | -5.17M | -5.58M | -3.75M |
| EBITDA | -74.17M | -88.44M | -58.24M | -247.27M | -72.74M | -32.59M |
| Net Income | -112.49M | -110.56M | -74.91M | -250.70M | -74.36M | -35.78M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 140.73M | 131.68M | 124.06M | 110.99M | 13.70M | 7.56M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 18.43M | 12.67M | 21.11M | 1.72M | 6.00K | 719.00K |
| Total Debt | 90.04M | 83.47M | 92.49M | 47.45M | 30.25M | 23.47M |
| Total Liabilities | 183.19M | 186.54M | 244.06M | 188.47M | 235.79M | 180.58M |
| Stockholders Equity | -42.46M | -54.86M | -120.00M | -77.48M | -222.09M | -173.03M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -66.23M | -72.55M | -68.43M | -72.15M | -28.14M | -24.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -51.12M | -64.16M | -54.32M | -64.37M | -28.04M | -23.93M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -15.96M | -5.71M | -3.61M | -7.10M | -298.00K | -261.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 58.01M | 70.96M | 77.17M | 72.99M | 27.67M | 18.25M |
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Technical Analysis
Positive
0.69
Price Trends
0.78
Positive
0.89
Positive
1.33
Negative
Market Momentum
0.07
Positive
54.00
Neutral
15.47
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SRFM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.88, below the 50-day MA of 0.78, and below the 200-day MA of 1.33, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.47 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SRFM.
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Risk Analysis
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. disclosed 80 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Surf Air Mobility, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
52 Neutral | $125.65M | -0.43 | 182.56% | ― | 3.14% | 48.61% | |
50 Neutral | $2.09B | 53.46 | 2.10% | 4.09% | 12.24% | ― | |
46 Neutral | $1.35B | -3.43 | -120.34% | ― | 9.95% | -1057.36% | |
46 Neutral | $137.81M | -1.69 | 7.78% | 2.36% | 16.15% | 32.19% |
* Industrials Sector Average
SRFM
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Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Surf Air Mobility Completes Second Tranche of Secured Financing
Neutral
Aug 11, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Surf Air Mobility Inc. entered into a Secured Purchase Agreement with an institutional collateral agent and certain purchasers for Senior Secured Debentures totaling $21.6 million, with an initial $7 million debenture issued that...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder MeetingsStock Split
Surf Air Mobility Faces NYSE Listing Compliance Challenge
Negative
Jul 24, 2026
Surf Air Mobility Inc., a Los Angeles-based air mobility platform that operates one of the largest commuter airlines in the U.S. and offers private charter services, is leveraging its AI-enabled SurfOS software and real-world flight operations to ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.