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Allegiant Travel Company
(NASDAQ:ALGT)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$68.00
▼(-17.40% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/24/26
Overall score reflects a company with improving operations and constructive management outlook from the latest call, but constrained by weak technicals and a premium valuation. The biggest anchor is financial quality: thin net profitability, earnings volatility, and elevated leverage in a cyclical airline model, partially offset by positive operating cash flow and positive forward guidance.
Positive Factors
Revenue and Unit Growth
Strong unit revenue growth and higher quarterly sales indicate resilient leisure demand and improving monetization of Allegiant’s network. If sustained, this momentum can support better fixed-cost absorption, strengthen earnings power, and help offset the airline’s significant operating cost base over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Debt materially above equity leaves Allegiant more exposed to cyclical travel weakness and higher financing costs. Negative recent returns on equity also show that leverage has not consistently translated into shareholder value creation, limiting financial flexibility for fleet investment or downturn protection.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and Unit Growth
Strong unit revenue growth and higher quarterly sales indicate resilient leisure demand and improving monetization of Allegiant’s network. If sustained, this momentum can support better fixed-cost absorption, strengthen earnings power, and help offset the airline’s significant operating cost base over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.95B
Dividend Yield4.09%
Average Volume (3M)457.87K
Price to Earnings (P/E)50.2
Beta (1Y)1.57
Revenue Growth12.24%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees8,484
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.42
Shares Outstanding27,337,755
10 Day Avg. Volume442,839
30 Day Avg. Volume457,872
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.42
Price to Book (P/B)1.46
Price to Sales (P/S)0.59
P/FCF Ratio20.49
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.28
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.54
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.49
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.95
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$120.50Price Target Upside46.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)5.5
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.72B
Allegiant Travel Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Allegiant Travel Company, founded in 1997 and headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada, operates as a leisure travel provider primarily catering to residents in smaller, under-served cities across the United States. The company specializes in offering d...
How the Company Makes Money
Allegiant primarily generates revenue from (1) passenger ticket sales (base fares for scheduled air transportation) and (2) ancillary products and services sold in connection with travel. Ancillary revenue is a major part of the model and commonly...
Allegiant Travel Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive outlook driven by record revenue, strong unit revenue gains (TRASM +24.6% for Allegiant), industry‑leading margins (9.2% operating margin), successful early integration wins (cross‑sell, Navitaire alignment, Expedia launch), fleet modernization benefits from MAX deliveries, and a robust balance sheet and liquidity. Notable near‑term challenges include higher fuel prices, elevated nonfuel unit costs and one‑time cash outflows (pilot retention bonus), plus pilot attrition at Sun Country resulting in off‑peak capacity reductions. Management provided multi‑quarter clarity (Q3 guide and full‑year EPS > $6) and a path to capture minimum $140M run‑rate synergies by 2029. Overall, the positives—sizable revenue and margin outperformance, successful integration momentum and strong liquidity—outweigh the near‑term headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong Stand‑alone Performance
Combined Q2 revenue of $943.5M (includes Sun Country May 13–Jun 30); stand‑alone Allegiant Q2 total revenue $776M, up 16.1% YoY. Stand‑alone Allegiant scheduled service air revenue increased $102M YoY, roughly offsetting a $99M increase in fuel expense.
Negative Updates
Sun Country Pilot Attrition and MSP Capacity Cuts
Elevated pilot attrition at Sun Country concentrated among junior MSP pilots (competition from the largest Twin Cities carrier). Company is reducing off‑peak capacity in Twin Cities in H2 2026 and pulled down September capacity at Sun Country; expects to expand training classes with full classes scheduled to enter service later this year.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong Stand‑alone Performance
Combined Q2 revenue of $943.5M (includes Sun Country May 13–Jun 30); stand‑alone Allegiant Q2 total revenue $776M, up 16.1% YoY. Stand‑alone Allegiant scheduled service air revenue increased $102M YoY, roughly offsetting a $99M increase in fuel expense.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights: for 3Q26 the combined company expects scheduled service ASMs down ~5.5% YoY (from a pro‑forma ~6.1B ASMs), third‑quarter total revenue roughly +16.5% vs. combined airline‑only 3Q25 (~$808M), unit revenue growth in line with 2Q’s +24.6% TRASM, an operating profit (operating margin ~2% at the midpoint) and a consolidated loss per share of about $(0.50) (assumes ~27.3M shares) with fuel assumed at $3.80/gal; legacy Allegiant non‑fuel unit costs are expected to be up ~9–10% YoY in 3Q and consolidated non‑fuel CASM ex‑cargo up ~10–12% YoY, with Q3 net interest expense ~ $43M. Full‑year 2026 outlook: EPS ≥ $6 (management framed as “at least $6”/“greater than $6” depending on the fuel assumption), CapEx updated to ~ $850M (Q2 CapEx was $188M), available liquidity ~$1.3B (cash & investments ~$1.1B + $250M revolver), total debt $2.8B / net debt $1.7B / pro‑forma net leverage ~2.6x, cash = 27% of TTM revenue, planned pilot retention bonus payout ≈ $275M, fuel sensitivity of ~$0.10/gal ≈ $0.50 EPS, and a minimum of $140M run‑rate synergies targeted by 2029.Allegiant Travel Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
43
Neutral
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.89B | 2.61B | 2.51B | 2.51B | 2.30B | 1.71B |
| Gross Profit | 1.28B | 400.67M | 1.57B | 664.37M | 340.47M | 231.54M |
| EBITDA | 406.24M | 326.94M | 60.86M | 490.24M | 305.57M | 446.13M |
| Net Income | 25.98M | -44.70M | -240.24M | 117.60M | 2.49M | 151.85M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.44B | 4.21B | 4.55B | 4.92B | 4.51B | 4.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.05B | 805.65M | 797.55M | 831.00M | 955.05M | 1.22B |
| Total Debt | 2.85B | 1.86B | 2.15B | 2.36B | 2.21B | 1.88B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.67B | 3.16B | 3.46B | 3.59B | 3.29B | 2.79B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.78B | 1.05B | 1.09B | 1.33B | 1.22B | 1.22B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 116.69M | 75.10M | 38.30M | -447.39M | -131.64M | 294.58M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 420.27M | 389.77M | 338.46M | 423.09M | 303.05M | 538.19M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -349.76M | -220.43M | 5.58M | -721.88M | -491.42M | -593.28M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 246.39M | -280.90M | -201.30M | 212.92M | 33.12M | 285.47M |
Allegiant Travel Company Technical Analysis
Neutral
82.32
Price Trends
75.65
Negative
87.81
Negative
87.60
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.75
Negative
49.37
Neutral
84.87
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALGT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 82.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 72.07, above the 50-day MA of 75.65, and below the 200-day MA of 87.60, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.75 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.87 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ALGT.
Allegiant Travel Company Risk Analysis
Allegiant Travel Company disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Allegiant Travel Company reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Allegiant Travel Company Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $20.77B | 20.11 | 14.39% | 1.70% | 14.49% | 205.66% | |
50 Neutral | $1.95B | 50.24 | 2.10% | 4.09% | 12.24% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $1.49B | -3.58 | -186.46% | ― | 23.97% | -200.15% | |
45 Neutral | $1.08B | -1.06 | -58.36% | ― | 9.87% | -104.29% | |
44 Neutral | $3.99B | -10.12 | -10.50% | 2.16% | 8.23% | -370.75% | |
43 Neutral | $8.35B | -17.26 | 12.03% | 1.41% | 12.32% | -179.51% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ALGT
Allegiant Travel Company
71.34
9.16
14.73%
ALK
Alaska Air
35.71
-6.02
-14.43%
JBLU
JetBlue Airways
2.85
-1.35
-32.14%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
42.43
12.66
42.54%
AAL
American Airlines
12.60
-0.53
-4.04%
ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings
6.45
2.59
67.10%
Allegiant Travel Company Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Allegiant Travel Strengthens Leadership Through New 2029 Agreements
Positive
Oct 23, 2026
On October 19, 2026, Allegiant Air exercised the first six options under its 2021 purchase agreement with Boeing, converting them into firm orders for 737-8 aircraft scheduled for delivery in 2028. This brings Allegiant’s Boeing order to 56 ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Allegiant Travel Secures Major Aircraft Financing Facilities
Positive
Oct 19, 2026
On October 13, 2026, Allegiant Travel Company, through a wholly owned subsidiary, borrowed the entire $177.5 million available under a secured credit facility backed by certain aircraft in its fleet, with fixed-rate loans to be amortized quarterly...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Allegiant Travel posts record Q2 revenue and earnings
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
On August 4, 2026, Allegiant Travel Company reported second-quarter 2026 results showing record operating revenue of $943.5 million, up 36.9 percent year over year, and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.19, a 78 percent increase, despite a...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Allegiant Travel amends major Boeing financing facility
Neutral
Jul 30, 2026
Allegiant Travel Company and Allegiant Air amended a pre-delivery payment facility with Carlyle Aviation’s Runway Seven Lender on July 27, 2026, providing an undrawn $231.0 million full-recourse loan commitment to finance PDPs for Boeing air...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.