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Frontier Group Holdings
(NASDAQ:ULCC)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▲(46.30% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (large TTM losses, negative operating cash flow, and a stressed balance-sheet profile). Offsetting that, technicals are strong with price trading above key moving averages and positive momentum indicators. Earnings call commentary improved the outlook via specific profitability guidance and stronger-than-guided results, while valuation remains hard to support given the negative P/E and no indicated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Ultra‑low‑cost model & fleet commonality
A single-family, high-density fleet and point-to-point network are durable advantages: they lower unit costs via simplified maintenance, training and spares, enable higher seating density and faster turnarounds, and support the ultra-low-cost pricing and ancillary economics over coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Stressed balance sheet and thin equity
Very thin equity and implied extreme leverage reduce financial flexibility and heighten insolvency risk if losses persist. This structural weakness constrains the company's ability to fund operations organically, absorb shocks like demand slumps or higher fuel, and limits strategic optionality over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Ultra‑low‑cost model & fleet commonality
A single-family, high-density fleet and point-to-point network are durable advantages: they lower unit costs via simplified maintenance, training and spares, enable higher seating density and faster turnarounds, and support the ultra-low-cost pricing and ancillary economics over coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Frontier Group Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Available Seat Miles
Available seat miles (ASM) measure total seat capacity offered and are a key supply metric for airlines. Tracking ASM versus demand shows whether Frontier is expanding responsibly, risking overcapacity, or optimizing utilization to improve unit revenue.
Available seat miles (ASM) measure total seat capacity offered and are a key supply metric for airlines. Tracking ASM versus demand shows whether Frontier is expanding responsibly, risking overcapacity, or optimizing utilization to improve unit revenue.
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The Fly
The FlyFrontier Group Holdings (ULCC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.54B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.12M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.17
Revenue Growth9.95%
EPS Growth-1057.36%
CountryUS
Employees8,352
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.69
Shares Outstanding230,215,770
10 Day Avg. Volume4,154,548
30 Day Avg. Volume4,116,275
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)2.19
Price to Sales (P/S)0.29
P/FCF Ratio-1.73
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.75Price Target Upside16.18% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.4
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.79B
Frontier Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Operating as an ultra-low-cost carrier, Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. facilitates air travel for passengers. Its flight network spans approximately 120 airports, reaching destinations throughout the United States and internationally across the Ame...
How the Company Makes Money
Frontier primarily makes money by selling air travel and related optional services. Its revenue model combines (1) passenger ticket revenue (base fares) and (2) ancillary revenue that customers pay on top of the base fare. Base fares are generated...
Frontier Group Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and commercial progress: record revenue (+38% YoY), a significant earnings beat (adjusted loss narrowed to $0.10/sh), improved liquidity ($1.16B, 27% of TTM revenue), tangible loyalty gains (~30% co-brand growth), fleet right‑sizing and a clear cost‑savings program ($200M target). Key challenges include elevated fuel costs (~$4.17/gal, +$180M vs prior indications), lumpy near‑term capacity and reduced sale‑leaseback gains vs prior year which complicate comparisons. Management expects profitability in H2 and continued progress into 2027 but execution risk remains around pending lease transactions and demand/fuel volatility.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue
Quarterly revenue reached a company record of $1.3 billion, up 38% year-over-year, driven by stronger travel demand and revenue management initiatives.
Negative Updates
Elevated Fuel Costs and Volatility
Fuel expense totaled $436 million at an average of $4.17 per gallon, approximately $180 million higher versus forward indications from early February; management trimmed capacity to mitigate high fuel, and fuel price volatility remains a material headwind.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue
Quarterly revenue reached a company record of $1.3 billion, up 38% year-over-year, driven by stronger travel demand and revenue management initiatives.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company updated guidance that it expects to return to profitability in the second half of 2026 and provided specific quarterly targets: Q3 adjusted diluted EPS of a loss of $0.10 to a profit of $0.10 at an average fuel price of $3.70/gal, and Q4 adjusted diluted EPS of breakeven to a $0.20 profit at $3.45/gal (marking the third consecutive quarter of improvement). Operational and capacity guidance includes Q3 scheduled capacity up 2–3% sequentially and 17–18% year‑over‑year (domestic capacity flat YoY; competitive capacity down >4 points), and Q4 growth of ~7% YoY assuming execution of contemplated lease deals. Fleet and balance sheet guidance: ended Q2 with 165 Airbus aircraft (Q2 deliveries: 2 A320neos, 4 A321neos), expect to take 1 A320neo and 5 A321neos in Q3, returned all 24 AerCap A320neos, are in advanced talks to early-terminate 13 A320neo leases and replace with up to 10 A321neos, and would operate no more than 168 Airbus aircraft by end‑Q1 2027 (stable through 2027) if executed; liquidity ended Q2 at $1.16 billion (27% of trailing 12‑month adjusted revenue). Financial context and targets reiterated include Q2 results of $1.3 billion revenue (+38% YoY), RASM of $0.1152 (+28% YoY), Q2 adjusted net loss of $22 million (‑$0.10/share vs. prior guidance ‑$0.45 to ‑$0.60), Q2 total adjusted operating expenses of $1.3 billion ($0.1177/ASM) including $436 million of fuel at $4.17/gal, adjusted op expenses ex‑fuel and early returns of $870 million ($0.0742/ASM stage‑adjusted), an unchanged CapEx guide, a $200 million annual run‑rate cost‑savings target by 2027, and a medium‑term CASM‑ex (adjusted) target in the mid‑$0.07s per ASM range.Frontier Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
27
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.15B | 3.72B | 3.77B | 3.59B | 3.33B | 2.06B |
| Gross Profit | -218.00M | 14.00M | 187.00M | 302.00M | 282.00M | -202.00M |
| EBITDA | -278.00M | -32.00M | 162.00M | 83.00M | 10.00M | -77.00M |
| Net Income | -386.00M | -137.00M | 85.00M | -11.00M | -37.00M | -102.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.24B | 7.22B | 6.15B | 4.99B | 4.50B | 4.24B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 955.00M | 671.00M | 740.00M | 609.00M | 761.00M | 918.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.24B | 5.46B | 4.47B | 3.46B | 2.93B | 2.85B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.11B | 6.73B | 5.55B | 4.49B | 3.99B | 3.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | 136.00M | 491.00M | 604.00M | 507.00M | 509.00M | 530.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -126.00M | -624.00M | -158.00M | -348.00M | -230.00M | 153.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -115.00M | -525.00M | -82.00M | -261.00M | -78.00M | 216.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 94.00M | -99.00M | -75.00M | -90.00M | -154.00M | -67.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 413.00M | 555.00M | 288.00M | 199.00M | 75.00M | 391.00M |
Frontier Group Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
5.81
Price Trends
6.83
Negative
5.60
Positive
5.10
Positive
Market Momentum
0.08
Positive
47.81
Neutral
5.32
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ULCC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 5.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.73, below the 50-day MA of 6.83, and above the 200-day MA of 5.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.32 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ULCC.
Frontier Group Holdings Risk Analysis
Frontier Group Holdings disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Frontier Group Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Frontier Group Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $4.18B | 10.49 | 15.02% | ― | 9.10% | 1.55% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | $1.54B | -3.96 | -120.34% | ― | 9.95% | -1057.36% | |
51 Neutral | $916.18M | -4.90 | -93.84% | ― | 9.97% | -472.97% | |
50 Neutral | $2.34B | 63.05 | 2.10% | ― | 12.24% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $2.13B | -2.34 | -45.51% | ― | 3.99% | -119.13% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings
6.69
1.92
40.25%
ALGT
Allegiant Travel Company
85.75
28.39
49.49%
JBLU
JetBlue Airways
5.65
0.47
9.07%
SKYW
SkyWest
107.58
-9.86
-8.40%
VLRS
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV
7.88
1.77
28.97%
Frontier Group Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Frontier Group Holdings announces board member resignation
Neutral
Jul 17, 2026
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. reported that Board member Nancy Lipson announced her intention to resign from the Board of Directors on July 14, 2026, with the resignation becoming effective July 15, 2026. The company stated that Lipson is leaving ...
Business Operations and Strategy
Frontier Group Signs Aircraft Sale Agreement to Rightsize Fleet
Positive
Jul 7, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Frontier Airlines entered into an agreement with existing lessor Avolon Leasing Ireland 3 Limited to sell 11 A321neo aircraft at the time of delivery from Frontier’s existing purchase commitments. The aircraft comprise thre...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Frontier Extends Barclays Partnership, Expands Loyalty Financing Facility
Positive
Jun 30, 2026
On June 24, 2026, Frontier Airlines and Barclays Bank Delaware extended their long-standing co-branded credit card partnership by signing a Seventh Amendment to their Credit Card Affinity Agreement, lengthening the term from December 31, 2029 to J...
Executive/Board Changes
Frontier Group Announces Board Resignation and New Director
Neutral
Jun 12, 2026
On June 9, 2026, Frontier Group Holdings announced that director Andrew Broderick intends to resign from its Board of Directors, effective June 15, 2026, with the company stating his departure is not due to any disagreement over operations, polici...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Frontier Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Executive Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 15, 2026
At its May 14, 2026 annual meeting, Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. shareholders elected Andrew S. Broderick, Bernard L. Han, Anthony D. Salcido and Alejandro D. Wolff to three-year terms as Class II directors, reaffirming the existing board slate. ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.