Simmons 1st Nat'l (SFNC) AI Stock Analysis

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Simmons 1st Nat'l

(NASDAQ:SFNC)

58Neutral

Simmons 1st Nat'l's overall stock score reflects a blend of financial resilience and profitability challenges. The strong balance sheet and attractive valuation are significant positives, but technical indicators point to short-term bearish momentum. Earnings call insights provide cautious optimism, tempered by credit and fraud issues.

Simmons 1st Nat'l (SFNC) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$2.40B

Dividend Yield5.44%

Average Volume (3M)698.17K

Price to Earnings (P/E)16.5

Beta (1Y)1.11

Revenue Growth2.90%

EPS Growth-12.63%

CountryUS

Employees2,949

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength88

IndustryBanks - Regional

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.26

Shares Outstanding125,918,820

10 Day Avg. Volume539,962

30 Day Avg. Volume698,172

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.45

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.55

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$21.60

Price Target Upside11.46% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering5

Simmons 1st Nat'l Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSimmons First National Corporation operates as the holding company for Simmons Bank that provides banking and other financial products and services to individuals and businesses. It offers checking, savings, and time deposits; consumer, real estate, and commercial loans; agricultural finance, equipment, and small business administration lending; trust and fiduciary services; credit cards; investment management products; insurance products; and securities and investment services. The company also provides ATM services; Internet and mobile banking platforms; overdraft facilities; and safe deposit boxes. As of January 27, 2022, the company operated through 199 financial centers in Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Simmons First National Corporation was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Pine Bluff, Arkansas.

How the Company Makes MoneySimmons First National Corporation generates revenue primarily through interest income from its lending operations, which include consumer, commercial, and real estate loans. The company also earns significant non-interest income from service charges on deposit accounts, fees from trust and wealth management services, and mortgage banking activities. Additionally, Simmons Bank benefits from strategic partnerships and acquisitions that expand its geographical reach and customer base, thus enhancing its revenue-generating capabilities. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as interest rate fluctuations, economic conditions, and regulatory changes, which can impact its lending margins and fee-based services.

Simmons 1st Nat'l Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Simmons 1st Nat'l shows fluctuating revenue with a significant increase in 2024 compared to 2023. However, the net profit margin declined, indicating profitability pressures. The strong balance sheet with zero debt enhances stability, but the decline in total assets and cash flow challenges are concerns.

Income Statement

Positive

Simmons 1st Nat'l shows fluctuating revenue with a significant increase in 2024 compared to 2023. However, the net profit margin declined from 23.05% in 2023 to 11.64% in 2024, indicating pressure on profitability. The absence of EBIT and EBITDA in 2024 limits insight into operating efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company maintains a strong equity position with an increasing equity ratio, reaching 35.06% in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio improved to 0.00 in 2024 due to the absence of debt, enhancing financial stability. However, the decline in total assets since 2022 is a potential concern.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Operating cash flow decreased significantly in 2024, while free cash flow remained stable. The free cash flow to net income ratio remained strong, but the operating cash flow to net income ratio dropped due to reduced cash generation from operations.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
762.75M	759.66M	875.14M	768.41M	860.94M
	Gross Profit
762.75M	781.54M	0.00	0.00	0.00
	EBIT
171.31M	388.25M	404.00M	332.46M	319.79M
	EBITDA
0.00	0.00	355.52M	379.68M	368.83M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
152.69M	175.06M	256.41M	271.16M	254.90M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
3.91B	3.77B	4.54B	8.77B	6.95B
	Total Assets
26.88B	27.35B	27.46B	24.72B	22.36B
	Total Debt
1.11B	1.34B	1.23B	1.72B	1.72B
	Net Debt
424.19M	724.32M	542.37M	69.57M	-1.75B
	Total Liabilities
23.35B	23.92B	24.19B	21.48B	19.38B
	Stockholders Equity
3.53B	3.43B	3.27B	3.25B	2.98B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
380.42M	507.89M	286.93M	229.92M	189.27M
	Operating Cash Flow
425.92M	540.98M	322.20M	277.78M	202.54M
	Investing Cash Flow
369.51M	-183.59M	-946.23M	-2.54B	1.19B
	Financing Cash Flow
-722.15M	-425.42M	-344.50M	438.46M	1.08B

Simmons 1st Nat'l Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price19.38

Price Trends

50DMA

19.47

Negative

100DMA

20.82

Negative

200DMA

21.25

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.02

Negative

RSI

55.87

Neutral

STOCH

81.63

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SFNC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 19.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.52, below the 50-day MA of 19.47, and below the 200-day MA of 21.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.63 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SFNC.

Simmons 1st Nat'l Risk Analysis

Simmons 1st Nat'l disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Simmons 1st Nat'l reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Simmons 1st Nat'l Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (64)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BKU	75 Outperform	$2.51B	10.47	8.63%	3.48%	-0.60%	39.49%
PRK	75 Outperform	$2.59B	16.41	12.98%	2.61%	11.81%	23.34%
FFBC	75 Outperform	$2.26B	9.96	9.58%	3.95%	8.05%	-3.31%
TOWN	71 Outperform	$2.51B	14.17	8.36%	2.96%	6.93%	17.97%
CVBF	70 Outperform	$2.62B	13.10	22.34%	4.17%	-1.39%	-3.84%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$12.60B	9.73	7.92%	16985.68%	12.21%	-5.55%
SFNC	58 Neutral	$2.40B	16.55	4.20%	5.44%	2.90%	-12.63%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

SFNC

Simmons 1st Nat'l

19.38

2.20

12.81%

BKU

BankUnited

33.85

6.09

21.94%

CVBF

Cvb Financial

19.18

2.81

17.17%

FFBC

First Financial Bancorp

24.07

1.27

5.57%

PRK

Park National

162.89

28.67

21.36%

TOWN

TowneBank

33.84

7.39

27.94%

Simmons 1st Nat'l Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 16, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 7.01%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mix of positive and negative aspects. While there were significant achievements in loan pipeline growth, customer deposits, revenue, and net interest margin expansion, these were offset by challenges related to credit deterioration in specific loans and a significant fraud expense. The bank demonstrated a proactive approach in addressing credit issues and expressed confidence in navigating uncertainties.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Commercial Loan Pipeline Growth

The commercial loan pipeline increased by 43% from the previous quarter and reached its highest level since the second quarter of 2022.

Customer Deposits Growth

Customer deposits grew by $183 million, approximately 4% on a linked quarter annualized basis, showcasing positive remixing into lower-cost transaction accounts.

Revenue and Net Interest Margin Expansion

Total revenue increased by $1.1 million from the previous quarter, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of top-line adjusted revenue growth. The net interest margin expanded to 2.95%, up 8 basis points from the previous quarter and 29 basis points year-over-year.

Non-Interest Income Growth

Non-interest income grew by 6% from the previous quarter, driven by strong swap fee income and diversified growth from other fee-based businesses.

Negative Updates

Credit Deterioration in Specific Loans

Two specific credit relationships were moved to nonperforming status, leading to an increased provision expense of $15.6 million in the quarter. These include a $27 million loan related to a hotel property in Downtown St. Louis and a $23 million loan to a fast-food franchise operator.

Fraudulent Activity Impact

A customer deposit fraud event resulted in a $4.3 million charge in non-interest expense for the quarter.

Company Guidance

During the first quarter 2025 earnings call, Simmons First National Corporation provided detailed guidance on several key financial metrics. The company reported a 2% increase in total period-end loans on a linked quarter annualized basis, though average loans were down due to back-end loaded funded growth. The commercial loan pipeline increased by 43% linked quarter. Total deposits slightly decreased due to reduced brokered funding, but customer deposits grew by $183 million, reflecting a 4% linked quarter annualized increase, with consumer checking accounts up 1.5% year-over-year. Revenue rose by $1.1 million linked quarter, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of adjusted revenue growth. The net interest margin expanded to 2.95%, up 8 basis points linked quarter and 29 basis points year-over-year. Non-interest income grew by 6% linked quarter, while adjusted non-interest expenses increased by $4.3 million, including a $4.3 million fraud charge. The company proactively addressed two non-performing credit relationships, resulting in a total provision expense of $26.8 million and an increase in the ACL ratio to 1.48%. Despite credit challenges, Simmons reaffirmed its 2025 outlook for 3%+ positive operating leverage and mid-teens growth in PPNR, with expectations of the net interest margin crossing 3% sooner than anticipated.

Simmons 1st Nat'l Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Simmons 1st Nat’l Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results

Positive

Apr 16, 2025

On April 16, 2025, Simmons First National Corporation reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a continued improvement in profitability fundamentals. The company experienced increases in loans and customer deposits, contributing to a healthy rise in net interest margin and positive revenue trends. Despite increasing the loss provision on two specific credit relationships due to unfavorable events, Simmons maintains that its asset quality remains sound. The company is cautiously monitoring economic volatility, which could impact business investment, but remains committed to investing in its business and the communities it serves.

Spark’s Take on SFNC Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, SFNC is a Neutral.

Simmons 1st Nat’l demonstrates strong financial resilience with zero debt and a solid equity position, though profitability remains a concern. The stock’s technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, which may deter short-term investors. Despite this, a reasonable valuation and strong dividend yield offer long-term appeal. Positive earnings call guidance and recent corporate events reflect cautious optimism, although executive retirements and external risks warrant attention.

To see Spark’s full report on SFNC stock, click here.

Executive/Board Changes

Simmons 1st Nat’l CEO Robert Fehlman Resigns

Neutral

Mar 10, 2025

Simmons First National Corporation announced the resignation of CEO Robert A. Fehlman, effective December 31, 2024, with his advisory role continuing until March 31, 2025, when he will retire. The company’s board of directors has adjusted Fehlman’s equity awards, extending the exercise period for stock options and waiving employment requirements for restricted stock units and performance share units, impacting the vesting and payment schedules.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.