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Simmons 1st Nat'l
(NASDAQ:SFNC)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$23.50
▲(3.52% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/16/26
SFNC scores as mid-range overall: the biggest driver is mixed financial performance—strong cash generation and a reasonably levered balance sheet are offset by sharply deteriorated profitability and negative margins. Earnings-call commentary adds support via confident net interest income and margin/expense improvement expectations, while technical signals remain weak with the stock trading below key moving averages and negative MACD. Valuation is a moderate positive with a ~12.4 P/E and ~3.85% dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Strong operating and free cash flow provide internal funding capacity even while reported earnings are depressed. This supports liquidity, ongoing technology and growth investment, and strategic flexibility, while reducing reliance on external capital to sustain the banking franchise.
Negative Factors
Deep and persistent losses
The swing from profitable results in 2022–2024 to sizeable losses in 2025 and the TTM period weakens earnings quality and capital generation. Even with recent quarterly improvement, the magnitude and persistence of reported losses remain a fundamental constraint on durable returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Strong operating and free cash flow provide internal funding capacity even while reported earnings are depressed. This supports liquidity, ongoing technology and growth investment, and strategic flexibility, while reducing reliance on external capital to sustain the banking franchise.
Read all positive factors
Simmons 1st Nat'l (SFNC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.29B
Dividend Yield3.75%
Average Volume (3M)1.77M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.7
Beta (1Y)0.80
Revenue Growth121.80%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees2,917
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.00
Shares Outstanding144,513,800
10 Day Avg. Volume2,423,107
30 Day Avg. Volume1,772,707
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)0.74
Price to Sales (P/S)4.05
P/FCF Ratio6.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.41
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.11
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit60.05
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-10.29
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$26.13Price Target Upside15.09% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)2.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.00B
Simmons 1st Nat'l Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Simmons First National Corporation serves as the parent organization for Simmons Bank, delivering a broad spectrum of banking and financial solutions to both individual and business clients. Its offerings include various deposit accounts such as c...
How the Company Makes Money
SFNC primarily makes money through its banking operations at Simmons Bank. Its key revenue stream is net interest income: the bank earns interest and fees on loans and other interest-earning assets (e.g., commercial and consumer loans) and pays in...
Simmons 1st Nat'l Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 15, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 26, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was predominantly positive. Management reported stronger margins, earnings, returns, fee income, deposit growth and expense-improvement initiatives, while reiterating favorable net interest income and operating-leverage expectations. These positives were partly offset by balance-sheet contraction, elevated paydowns, compressed risk spreads, higher wholesale funding costs and less optimism about immediate-term loan growth.Positive Updates
Improved Profitability Metrics
Third-quarter net interest income grew linked quarter, net interest margin expanded 8 basis points to 3.92%, EPS increased by $0.04, ROA increased 12 basis points and was above the company’s previously published long-range target, and ROCE improved 113 basis points.
Negative Updates
Balance-Sheet Contraction and Elevated Paydowns
End-of-period balances declined significantly. Third-quarter maturities and paydowns were described as extremely outsized, and fourth-quarter maturities and paydowns are expected to remain above normal, although below third-quarter levels. More than $1 billion of paydowns on loans of $5 million or greater had relationship deposits of less than $50 million.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Improved Profitability Metrics
Third-quarter net interest income grew linked quarter, net interest margin expanded 8 basis points to 3.92%, EPS increased by $0.04, ROA increased 12 basis points and was above the company’s previously published long-range target, and ROCE improved 113 basis points.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated guidance for 2% to 3% expense growth in 2026 over 2025, with a real shot to kind of be flat to maybe even slightly down in the fourth quarter, approximately $40 million plus or minus of one-time charges and in that area of $40 million of pre net revenue improvement; they still feel really confident about the high end of the up 9% to 11% annual net interest income range, said the 3.92 margin has meaningful upside, modeled a rate increase in December, 1 in March, 1 in June, and expect the $1.83% September exit cost of deposits to be the bottom, with an approximately 85% loan beta and 30% to 35% total deposit beta through the cycle; the $2.1 billion weighted average loan book with weighted average rate less than 4% is expected to remain a favorable tailwind, while immediate-term growth is less optimistic, like Q4 or Q1, and 26 branches are expected to close.Simmons 1st Nat'l Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
22
Negative
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 570.26M | 626.80M | 1.45B | 1.34B | 1.02B | 847.94M |
| Gross Profit | 77.05M | 36.36M | 715.97M | 750.42M | 861.07M | 799.62M |
| EBITDA | -449.83M | -474.97M | 217.42M | 248.48M | 355.52M | 379.68M |
| Net Income | -349.48M | -397.55M | 152.69M | 175.06M | 256.41M | 271.16M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 24.78B | 24.54B | 26.88B | 27.35B | 27.46B | 24.72B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.45B | 3.65B | 2.08B | 3.77B | 4.54B | 8.77B |
| Total Debt | 1.30B | 641.35M | 1.15B | 1.41B | 1.39B | 1.91B |
| Total Liabilities | 21.29B | 21.12B | 23.35B | 23.92B | 24.19B | 21.48B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.48B | 3.42B | 3.53B | 3.43B | 3.27B | 3.25B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 480.96M | 423.05M | 380.42M | 507.89M | 286.93M | 229.92M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 522.91M | 461.19M | 425.92M | 540.98M | 322.20M | 277.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.06B | 1.56B | 369.51M | -183.59M | -946.23M | -2.54B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.63B | -2.00B | -722.15M | -425.42M | -344.50M | 438.46M |
Simmons 1st Nat'l Technical Analysis
Positive
22.70
Price Trends
22.75
Positive
22.63
Positive
21.28
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.01
Negative
61.86
Neutral
95.90
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SFNC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.55, below the 50-day MA of 22.75, and above the 200-day MA of 21.28, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.90 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SFNC.
Simmons 1st Nat'l Risk Analysis
Simmons 1st Nat'l disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Simmons 1st Nat'l reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Simmons 1st Nat'l Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $3.34B | 11.03 | 10.07% | 3.19% | 11.65% | 13.28% | |
76 Outperform | $5.25B | 7.94 | 11.21% | 3.95% | -0.40% | -1.91% | |
72 Outperform | $4.28B | 30.13 | 4.03% | 2.82% | -18.50% | -52.84% | |
69 Neutral | $3.70B | 14.59 | 13.44% | 1.81% | 4.09% | 6.79% | |
68 Neutral | $3.69B | 12.00 | 8.13% | 2.33% | 27.48% | 31.72% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
59 Neutral | $3.29B | 12.72 | 7.61% | 3.75% | 121.80% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
SFNC
Simmons 1st Nat'l
23.32
6.26
36.68%
BANF
BancFirst
112.36
3.09
2.83%
OZK
Bank OZK
49.67
6.36
14.69%
FFBC
First Financial Bancorp
32.47
8.99
38.30%
RNST
Renasant
41.44
7.73
22.92%
UCB
United Community Banks
37.23
8.27
28.57%
Simmons 1st Nat'l Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Simmons First National posts solid Q3 2026 results
Positive
Oct 15, 2026
On October 15, 2026, Simmons First National Corporation reported third-quarter 2026 net income of $47.1 million, diluted EPS of $0.32, and adjusted net income of $79.0 million, with adjusted EPS of $0.54. Total revenue was $251.2 million, net inte...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Simmons 1st Nat’l Plans Major Branch Closures, Restructure
Neutral
Sep 3, 2026
On September 1, 2026, Simmons First National Corporation approved the closure of 26 Simmons Bank branches across its six-state footprint, with the closures scheduled to take effect on December 4, 2026. The move is intended to better align the reta...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Simmons First National Reports Solid Second Quarter Results
Positive
Jul 17, 2026
On July 16, 2026, Simmons First National Corporation reported second quarter 2026 results showing net income of $66.7 million, down modestly from the prior quarter but above the year-earlier period, with diluted EPS of $0.46 and adjusted diluted E...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.