Holmen AB AI Stock Analysis
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Holmen AB (HOLM.B) AI Stock Analysis
Holmen AB
(Nasdaq OMX AB:HOLM.B)
The score is supported primarily by financial stability (notably a strong, low-leverage balance sheet) and continued positive free cash flow, plus a moderate dividend yield. It is held back by deteriorating profitability signals (including the TTM gross-margin red flag), bearish technical momentum with the stock trading below key moving averages, and a cautious/mixed earnings outlook amid overcapacity, weak demand, and energy-cost pressure.
Holmen AB (HOLM.B) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)
- Market Cap
- SEK 45.01B
- Dividend Yield
- 3.18%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 193.85K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 21.6
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.63
- Revenue Growth
- -5.15%
- EPS Growth
- -24.57%
- Country
- Sweden
- Employees
- 3,500
- Sector
- General
- Sector Strength
- 55
- Industry
- Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
Holmen AB Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Holmen AB (publ) engages in the forest, paperboard, paper, wood products, and renewable energy businesses in Sweden and internationally. The company operates through Forest, Renewable Energy, Wood Products, and Board and Paper segments. Its Forest se...
How the Company Makes Money
Holmen makes money primarily by converting timber from its managed forests and purchased raw material into higher-value products and selling them under multi-year and spot contracts to industrial customers. Key revenue streams include: - Paper: Sales...
Holmen AB Earnings Call Summary
The call presented a mixed outlook. Holmen has strong cash flow, a strong financial position, healthy order books in Board and Paper, narrowing wood-product losses and long-term benefits from grid expansion. However, third-quarter profit declined, several markets remain weak, wood prices were down roughly 10%, Board and Paper were affected by a SEK 150 million maintenance impact, and significant industry overcapacity and energy-cost pressure remain. Management was constructive on selected initiatives but cautious about market conditions and future opportunities.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Guidance included that full year's harvesting is expected to be “a bit lower than normal”; the national-grid maintenance is not expected to affect the fourth quarter, although such work “can pop up,” with no further information for next year; approximately 5%-10% of energy production is hedged and “more or less all” is sold to spot prices; wood products should return to profit “soon,” while production curtailments are being continuously reviewed and capacity at the big sawmill in the south is being reduced “quite a lot”; fourth-quarter Board and Paper deliveries are hard to anticipate exactly, with quarter-over-quarter changes “quite limited” and order books “pretty much the same as they did in the end of second quarter”; consumer-board utilization is not at the “roughly 90%” level normally needed; and the industry has announced price increases mainly from 1st of January, while a decision on the UPM-Sappi deal is expected “beginning of next year.”
Holmen AB Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Overall financials are solid but mixed. The balance sheet is a major strength (low leverage and strong financial flexibility), and free cash flow remains comfortably positive. Offsetting this, profitability has softened meaningfully into TTM with compressed margins and an unusual TTM negative gross margin signal that raises cost/earnings-quality concerns.
Income Statement
58NeutralBalance Sheet
84Very PositiveCash Flow
72Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 21.23B | 22.06B | 22.76B | 22.80B | 23.95B | 19.48B |
| Gross Profit | -5.51B | 366.00M | 10.24B | 12.12B | 13.75B | 9.83B |
| EBITDA | 3.45B | 4.76B | 5.15B | 6.16B | 8.85B | 5.00B |
| Net Income | 2.10B | 2.88B | 2.86B | 3.70B | 5.87B | 3.00B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 81.35B | 80.86B | 81.55B | 79.72B | 81.44B | 68.10B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 225.00M | 390.00M | 234.00M | 1.20B | 1.94B | 507.00M |
| Total Debt | 6.34B | 5.10B | 3.68B | 3.17B | 3.15B | 4.34B |
| Total Liabilities | 26.37B | 25.46B | 24.18B | 22.80B | 24.49B | 21.11B |
| Stockholders Equity | 54.98B | 55.41B | 57.37B | 56.92B | 56.95B | 46.99B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.33B | 1.71B | 1.20B | 4.10B | 4.09B | 1.52B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.68B | 3.85B | 3.32B | 5.80B | 5.48B | 3.23B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.33B | -2.12B | -2.07B | -1.65B | -1.35B | -1.31B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.30B | -1.58B | -2.22B | -4.89B | -2.71B | -1.76B |
Holmen AB Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:HOLM.B, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 299.20 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 307.37, below the 50-day MA of 316.51, and below the 200-day MA of 321.42, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:HOLM.B.
Holmen AB Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
- SE:HOLM.B65Neutral
SE:SCA.B62Neutral
SE:STE.A52Neutral
SE:BILL51Neutral
SE:RROS43Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SE:HOLM.B | 65Neutral | SEK 45.30B | 21.65 | ― | 3.18% | -5.15% | -24.57% |
| SE:SCA.B | 62Neutral | SEK 84.00B | 38.76 | 2.14% | 2.52% | -3.07% | -38.98% |
| Sector * | 55Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% |
| SE:STE.A | 52Neutral | SEK 82.53B | 19.19 | 3.68% | 1.42% | -3.86% | ― |
| SE:BILL | 51Neutral | SEK 21.76B | 94.14 | 0.84% | 2.28% | -9.00% | -80.79% |
| SE:RROS | 43Neutral | SEK 608.76M | -2.20 | -18.41% | ― | -10.40% | 38.81% |
* General Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SE:HOLM.B | Holmen AB | 299.20 | -49.70 | -14.25% | |
| SE:BILL | BillerudKorsnas AB | 87.55 | 0.69 | 0.79% | |
| SE:STE.A | Stora Enso Oyj (0M32) | 104.00 | -11.13 | -9.66% | |
| SE:SCA.B | Svenska Cellulosa Sca Ab | 119.00 | -3.49 | -2.85% | |
| SE:RROS | Rottneros AB | 2.28 | -0.29 | -11.28% |
Holmen AB Corporate Events
Holmen Splits Forest Operations to Boost Value and Supply Efficiency
Holmen AB is restructuring its Forest business area by splitting it into two distinct operations, separating the management of its own forest land from wood supply activities. The move is designed to clarify governance and profit responsibility, allo...
Holmen Profit Declines as Maintenance and Weak Markets Weigh on 2026 Results
Holmen reported a January–September 2026 operating profit of SEK 2,066 million, down from SEK 2,531 million a year earlier, with an operating margin of 13% as cautious consumers and weak construction demand weighed on forest industry markets. Net sal...
Holmen to Present January–September 2026 Interim Report in Online Analyst Conference
Holmen AB will publish its interim report for January–September 2026 at 07:30 CEST on Thursday, 22 October, and will follow the release with a press and analyst conference later that morning. The event, led by President and CEO Henrik Sjölund and CFO...
Holmen appoints shareholder-led Nomination Committee ahead of 2027 AGM
Holmen AB has appointed its Nomination Committee for the period leading up to the 2027 Annual General Meeting in line with a shareholder-based model decided by the AGM. The committee comprises the Chairman of the Board, Fredrik Lundberg, and represen...
Holmen Balances Softer Industrial Earnings With Strong Forest and Energy Profits in H1 2026
Holmen reported operating profit of SEK 1,516 million for the first half of 2026, down from SEK 1,794 million a year earlier, with an operating margin of 14 percent as industrial profits fell but earnings from hydro and wind power rose sharply. Secon...
Holmen Schedules Online Briefing for First-Half 2026 Interim Results
Holmen AB will publish its interim report for January–June 2026 at 07:30 CEST on Thursday, 20 August, and will follow the release with a press and analyst conference at 09:00 CEST the same day. The event will be streamed online, with President and CE...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 24, 2026