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Catena Media
(CTM)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
kr2.50
â–¼(-22.12% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (steep TTM revenue contraction and ongoing losses) and a bearish technical setup (price below key moving averages with weak momentum). Earnings-call details add risk due to sequential revenue/EBITDA deterioration and capital-structure actions (hybrid interest deferral and discounted tender), partially offset by positive trailing cash generation and cost discipline.
Positive Factors
Marketplace diversification
MRKTPLYS has become a material revenue stream, reducing reliance on traditional SEO-led affiliate products. Its scale indicates early product-market validation and could support more diversified, resilient customer acquisition over time.
Negative Factors
Shrinking revenue and persistent losses
The sharp contraction in revenue and repeated losses indicate that the existing model is not currently producing sufficient scale or earnings power. Persistent weakness can limit reinvestment capacity and make recovery dependent on successful strategic execution.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Marketplace diversification
MRKTPLYS has become a material revenue stream, reducing reliance on traditional SEO-led affiliate products. Its scale indicates early product-market validation and could support more diversified, resilient customer acquisition over time.
Read all positive factors
Catena Media (CTM) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)
Market Cap
kr235.63M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)116.69K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.60
Revenue Growth17.70%
EPS Growth85.68%
CountrySE
Employees160
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.13
Shares Outstanding78,773,420
10 Day Avg. Volume192,407
30 Day Avg. Volume116,689
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.11
Price to Sales (P/S)0.25
P/FCF Ratio1.84
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)kr40.00M
Catena Media Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Catena Media plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides affiliation marketing services for operators of online sports betting and casino platforms in North America and Latin America. The company operates in two segments, Casino and Sports. The ...
How the Company Makes Money
Catena Media primarily makes money through affiliate marketing arrangements with iGaming operators. It publishes content and marketing pages designed to attract users via SEO, owned media, and other digital channels, then monetizes that traffic by...
Catena Media Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call presented a mix of stabilizing and strategic positives (currency‑adjusted revenue growth, MRKTPLYS contributing >1/3 of revenue, disciplined cost control, cash balance and no debt, product development and strong employee NPS) alongside material near‑term challenges (a steep sequential revenue decline, sharp EBITDA and margin compression, negligible quarterly operating cash flow, sports segment weakness, higher direct costs, heavy North America concentration, and the need to defer hybrid interest while offering a buyback at 20%). Management's pivot toward a technical infrastructure and intelligence platform and meaningful capex investment are constructive strategic responses, but the immediate financial trends and capital‑structure actions indicate significant near‑term stress. Overall, the lowlights and financial stresses outweigh the positives, though the strategic plan provides a path to improvement if execution succeeds.Positive Updates
Revenue Broadly In Line Year‑on‑Year (Currency‑Adjusted Growth)
Q2 revenue of EUR 9.5 million was down 1% versus Q2 2025, but increased 4% year‑on‑year on a constant currency basis, indicating underlying stability when FX is excluded.
Negative Updates
Sharp Quarter‑on‑Quarter Revenue Decline
Revenue fell 23% versus Q1 2026 to EUR 9.5 million, signaling a pronounced sequential slowdown after recent stronger quarters.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Broadly In Line Year‑on‑Year (Currency‑Adjusted Growth)
Q2 revenue of EUR 9.5 million was down 1% versus Q2 2025, but increased 4% year‑on‑year on a constant currency basis, indicating underlying stability when FX is excluded.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call emphasized preserving capital flexibility while investing in a new automated marketplace (full commercial launch targeted H1 2027): the company will continue deferring interest on its hybrid capital securities (nominal EUR 43.7m; accrued interest EUR 7.0m as of 10 July 2026), is launching a voluntary tender to buy back hybrids at 20% of nominal, and will run a limited share buyback of up to 5.98% to cover LTIP, while increasing capex (over 100% vs Q2 2025) and maintaining disciplined cost control (total cost base EUR 8.2m flat y/y, -15% q/q) with cash of EUR 13.0m. Operationally they reiterated revenue and profitability targets and headwinds: Q2 revenue was EUR 9.5m (-1% y/y, -23% q/q; +4% constant currency), adjusted EBITDA EUR 1.2m (-11% y/y; margin 13% vs 14% y/y and 22% in Q1 2026), operating cash flow EUR 0.03m (6M: EUR 4.4m, +5% y/y; 12M: EUR 7.9m), new depositing customers 24,781 (+23% y/y, -28% q/q), North America 97% of revenue, Casino 90% of revenue (EUR 8.5m, +8% y/y) and Sports EUR 1.0m, and they noted MRKTPLYS now contributes more than one third of group revenue.Catena Media Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
22
Negative
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 48.88M | 46.60M | 49.64M | 76.75M | 110.12M | 136.11M |
| Gross Profit | 25.23M | 34.20M | 38.65M | 63.31M | 98.74M | 120.62M |
| EBITDA | -5.03M | -5.64M | -40.59M | -11.21M | 49.05M | -405.00K |
| Net Income | -10.25M | -11.56M | -48.21M | -38.24M | 25.62M | -7.17M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 119.95M | 113.11M | 146.81M | 242.03M | 322.63M | 366.17M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 13.04M | 9.32M | 8.48M | 38.51M | 23.87M | 26.96M |
| Total Debt | 40.66M | 37.86M | 21.85M | 57.59M | 76.66M | 88.75M |
| Total Liabilities | 44.21M | 5.58M | 23.98M | 66.84M | 100.11M | 137.65M |
| Stockholders Equity | 75.74M | 107.53M | 122.83M | 175.18M | 222.52M | 228.52M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 7.18M | 6.25M | 137.00K | 19.91M | 26.87M | 22.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.98M | 7.51M | 2.66M | 20.04M | 56.38M | 65.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.46M | 19.41M | 11.62M | 34.34M | -30.91M | -43.36M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -471.64K | -24.90M | -44.74M | -34.88M | -27.66M | -24.18M |
Catena Media Technical Analysis
Neutral
3.21
Price Trends
3.07
Negative
2.76
Positive
2.35
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.10
Positive
44.51
Neutral
62.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:CTM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.36, above the 50-day MA of 3.07, and above the 200-day MA of 2.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SE:CTM.
Catena Media Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | kr452.75M | 15.90 | 9.27% | ― | 1.90% | -60.00% | |
67 Neutral | kr8.96B | 24.07 | 46.90% | 1.11% | -13.85% | -26.51% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
55 Neutral | kr354.13M | -24.23 | -4.06% | ― | 2.62% | -235.03% | |
53 Neutral | kr47.01M | 0.77 | 65.43% | ― | -66.04% | ― | |
47 Neutral | kr235.63M | -1.97 | -9.30% | ― | 17.70% | 85.68% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
SE:CTM
Catena Media
2.90
0.41
16.47%
SE:HEM
Hemnet Group AB
101.80
-159.79
-61.08%
SE:ENRO
Eniro Group AB Class A
31.80
13.41
72.91%
SE:BRIGHT
Speqta AB
0.41
0.08
24.23%
SE:NYOR
TradeDoubler AB
6.32
-1.18
-15.73%
SE:FRAG
Fragbite Group AB
5.92
-5.23
-46.91%
Catena Media Corporate Events
Catena Media Offers Deep-Discount Buyback of Hybrid Securities to Boost Financial Flexibility
Aug 11, 2026
Catena Media has announced plans to launch a voluntary tender offer for its existing hybrid capital securities, giving investors the option to sell back their holdings for cash at SEK 20 per SEK 100 of nominal value, without payment of accrued int...
Catena Media Board Approves Conditional Share Buyback for Incentive Plans
Aug 11, 2026
Catena Media’s board has conditionally approved a share buyback programme to repurchase up to SEK 28 million worth of its own fully paid-up shares, with a cap of 4,713,747 shares. The repurchased stock, together with existing treasury shares...
Catena Media Invests in New Platform as Organic Search Weighs on Q2 Earnings
Aug 11, 2026
Catena Media reported flat second-quarter revenue from continuing operations of EUR 9.5m, with adjusted EBITDA down 11 percent as industry-wide organic search headwinds weighed on earnings. North America now accounts for 97 percent of revenue and ...
Catena Media schedules Q2 2026 interim results presentation
Aug 4, 2026
Catena Media, a Malta-based leader in online casino and sports betting lead generation, operates a sizable portfolio of digital brands that channel players to operator platforms and promote an improved user experience. The company employs more tha...
Catena boosts earnings as it reshapes Nordic logistics portfolio and expands green financing
Jul 6, 2026
Catena AB reported robust financial performance for the first half of 2026, with rental income rising 17 percent to SEK 1,510 million and net operating surplus up 17 percent to SEK 1,267 million. Profit from property management increased 14 percen...
Nordic Compound Invest Takes 10% Stake in Catena Media
Jul 2, 2026
Nordic Compound Invest A/S has disclosed that it acquired a significant stake in Catena Media, bringing its ownership to 10.0132 percent of the company’s shares and voting rights as of 30 June 2026. The move, reported under Malta’s cap...
Catena Media Wins Approval for Share Buyback Authorisation
Jun 30, 2026
Catena Media plc has received shareholder approval at an extraordinary general meeting to initiate a share buyback programme on Nasdaq Stockholm or other regulated markets. The authorisation runs for up to 18 months, until the 2027 annual general ...
Catena appoints Finnish regional manager as logistics push accelerates
Jun 16, 2026
Catena has strengthened its Nordic logistics footprint by appointing real estate specialist Henrik Eskolin as Regional Manager for its newly established Finnish market. The move underscores the company’s strategy of combining local presence ...
Catena Sells Two Logistics Properties Above Valuation to Refocus Portfolio
Jun 4, 2026
Catena has divested two logistics properties, Varla 6:15 in Kungsbacka and Glasblåsaren 14 in Linköping, with a combined lettable area of about 35,000 square metres. The assets were sold for approximately SEK 430 million, generating annu...
Catena JV Sells Final Sörred Logistics Park Property to Platzer for SEK 570m
Jun 2, 2026
Sörred Logistics Park, a 50/50 joint venture between Catena and Platzer, has agreed to sell the Gothenburg logistics property Sörred 8:15 to Platzer under a purchase option granting Platzer priority to acquire completed projects on marke...
Catena Updates MTN Base Prospectus to Support Nordic Bond Issuance
May 29, 2026
Catena has refreshed the base prospectus for its Medium Term Note program, first set up in 2021, to support continued bond issuance in the Nordic capital market. The updated document, approved and registered by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Au...
Catena Media AGM Backs New Incentive Plan and Governance Measures but Delays Share Buyback
May 27, 2026
Catena Media’s 2026 Annual General Meeting approved the 2025 consolidated financial statements but backed the board’s proposal not to pay a dividend, signalling a continued emphasis on capital retention. Shareholders confirmed a four-m...
Catena Media Calls Fresh Vote on Share Buyback Mandate at Extraordinary Meeting
May 27, 2026
Catena Media has called an extraordinary general meeting for 30 June 2026 in Malta after an earlier attempt at its annual general meeting to pass an extraordinary resolution authorising share buybacks failed to secure both of the supermajorities r...
Catena buys DHL logistics hub at Helsinki Airport to bolster Finnish portfolio
May 26, 2026
Catena has expanded its Finnish footprint by acquiring a major logistics property in Aviapolis, Vantaa, adjacent to Helsinki Airport, in a share deal valuing the asset at about SEK 719 million and financed through equity and external credit facili...
Catena boosts Nordic footprint with Helsinki Airport logistics acquisition
May 20, 2026
Catena has agreed to acquire a modern logistics property adjacent to Helsinki Airport in Aviapolis, Vantaa, for an underlying property value of about SEK 575 million. The asset, completed in 2021 and fully leased to Cramo Finland under a 10-year a...
Optimus Invest takes significant stake in Catena Media
May 18, 2026
Catena Media has disclosed that investment firm Optimus Invest Limited has acquired a significant stake in the company, holding 5.0777% of its shares and voting rights as of 19 December 2024. The notification, made public under Malta’s capit...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.