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Philip Morris
(NYSE:PM)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$199.00
▲(2.62% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:09/08/26
The score is anchored by strong profitability, cash generation, and supportive guidance/smoke-free momentum, but is materially held back by the aggressive capital structure (negative equity and high debt). Technically, the stock’s near-term setup is weak (below key moving averages with negative MACD), while valuation is moderate due to a higher P/E partially offset by the dividend.
Positive Factors
Smoke-free growth
Strong growth across IQOS, VEEV and ZYN shows PMI is building a diversified smoke-free franchise rather than relying solely on declining cigarettes. Recurring consumable purchases, expanding product breadth and global distribution can support durable revenue and profit growth over the coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Aggressive capital structure
Negative equity and elevated, rising debt reduce financial flexibility and make the company more exposed to refinancing and interest-rate risk. Although PMI generates substantial cash, operating cash flow covers less than half of total debt, limiting deleveraging capacity in a downturn.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Smoke-free growth
Strong growth across IQOS, VEEV and ZYN shows PMI is building a diversified smoke-free franchise rather than relying solely on declining cigarettes. Recurring consumable purchases, expanding product breadth and global distribution can support durable revenue and profit growth over the coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Philip Morris Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Shipment Volume by Product Type
Monitors the quantity of products shipped across different categories, providing insight into consumer demand trends and product popularity.
Monitors the quantity of products shipped across different categories, providing insight into consumer demand trends and product popularity.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPhilip Morris (PM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$284.49B
Dividend Yield3.22%
Average Volume (3M)4.49M
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.2
Beta (1Y)-0.07
Revenue Growth9.12%
EPS Growth32.00%
CountryUS
Employees84,900
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryTobacco
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.96
Shares Outstanding1,558,613,400
10 Day Avg. Volume3,676,041
30 Day Avg. Volume4,488,279
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.36
Price to Book (P/B)-24.97
Price to Sales (P/S)6.14
P/FCF Ratio23.40
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$208.70Price Target Upside7.62% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)8.37
Revenue Forecast (FY)$43.41B
Philip Morris Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Philip Morris International Inc. functions as a prominent tobacco enterprise, actively working toward a smoke-free future. The company is strategically diversifying its long-term product range to incorporate items beyond traditional tobacco and ni...
How the Company Makes Money
PMI makes money primarily by selling nicotine products to wholesalers, distributors, and retailers (and, in some markets, directly to consumers where permitted). Its main revenue streams include: (1) Combustible cigarettes: Revenue is generated fr...
Philip Morris Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 22, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong set of operational and financial results driven by robust smoke‑free momentum (IQOS, VEEV, ZYN), significant margin expansion and cost savings, and confident full‑year guidance with capacity to invest—tempered by identifiable near‑term headwinds (Japan excise volatility, European flavor bans, U.S. pouch competition, and planned H2 SG&A). Management emphasized durable smoke‑free economics, multi‑category growth, and continued cash generation while taking targeted investments to address competitive gaps.Positive Updates
Strong Q2 Top-Line and Profitability
Q2 organic net revenue growth of +7.6% (management cited +8% headline), adjusted operating income up ~+11% organically to $4.8B, and adjusted diluted EPS up +15% year-over-year to $2.20 (includes a $0.03 favorable currency impact). Quarterly net revenues exceeded $11B for the first time.
Negative Updates
Japan Excise‑Driven Volatility
Japan faced transitory headwinds from an April excise increase: IQOS adjusted IMS declined -3.4% in Q2 (pantry loading reversal from Q1). Management expects further category volatility in H2 (another excise step in October) with ongoing consumer adjustment.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q2 Top-Line and Profitability
Q2 organic net revenue growth of +7.6% (management cited +8% headline), adjusted operating income up ~+11% organically to $4.8B, and adjusted diluted EPS up +15% year-over-year to $2.20 (includes a $0.03 favorable currency impact). Quarterly net revenues exceeded $11B for the first time.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
PMI kept its 2026 guidance, targeting organic net revenue growth of +5%–+7%, organic operating income growth of +7%–+9% and currency‑neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth of +7.5%–+9.5% (implying an adjusted diluted EPS range of $8.26–$8.41 at prevailing rates with an estimated ~$0.15 currency tailwind, or ~+9.5%–+11.5% in dollar terms). Management expects total shipments broadly stable to slightly positive for the year, cigarette volumes down ~2%–3% offset by high‑single‑digit smoke‑free growth (aiming for a sixth consecutive year of total volume growth), continued organic operating margin expansion, and operating cash flow of ~ $13.5bn; Q3 guidance calls for ~41bn HTU shipments, mid‑single‑digit international smoke‑free organic revenue and gross profit growth, mid‑single‑digit group organic top‑line growth with modest margin expansion, and adjusted diluted EPS of $2.20–$2.25 (including an ~$0.08 unfavorable FX impact).Philip Morris Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 42.55B | 40.65B | 37.88B | 35.17B | 31.76B | 31.41B |
| Gross Profit | 28.72B | 27.28B | 24.55B | 22.28B | 20.36B | 21.38B |
| EBITDA | 18.20B | 17.46B | 15.75B | 13.37B | 13.48B | 13.97B |
| Net Income | 10.87B | 11.35B | 7.03B | 7.79B | 9.05B | 9.11B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 68.27B | 69.19B | 61.78B | 65.30B | 61.68B | 41.29B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.00B | 4.87B | 4.22B | 3.06B | 3.21B | 4.50B |
| Total Debt | 49.11B | 48.84B | 45.70B | 47.91B | 43.12B | 27.81B |
| Total Liabilities | 74.93B | 77.21B | 71.65B | 74.75B | 67.99B | 49.50B |
| Stockholders Equity | -8.58B | -9.99B | -11.75B | -11.22B | -8.96B | -10.11B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 12.72B | 10.66B | 10.77B | 7.88B | 9.73B | 11.22B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 14.26B | 12.23B | 12.22B | 9.20B | 10.80B | 11.97B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.19B | -4.49B | -1.09B | -3.60B | -15.68B | -2.36B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -11.12B | -7.61B | -9.48B | -5.58B | 3.81B | -11.98B |
Philip Morris Technical Analysis
Neutral
193.92
Price Trends
187.93
Negative
180.96
Positive
172.57
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.45
Positive
40.57
Neutral
13.60
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 193.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 188.62, above the 50-day MA of 187.93, and above the 200-day MA of 172.57, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.45 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.60 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PM.
Philip Morris Risk Analysis
Philip Morris disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Philip Morris reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Philip Morris Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $2.20B | 15.10 | 6.20% | 5.56% | 59.23% | 39.66% | |
69 Neutral | $120.35B | 14.13 | 13.38% | 5.98% | 4.47% | 117.22% | |
68 Neutral | $284.49B | 26.23 | -112.19% | 3.22% | 9.12% | 32.00% | |
66 Neutral | $115.01B | 14.53 | -265.17% | 6.27% | 1.01% | -8.27% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
60 Neutral | $1.51B | 31.61 | 11.93% | 0.42% | 20.10% | -3.19% | |
43 Neutral | $1.75M | -0.02 | -20.47% | ― | -27.44% | 99.95% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
PM
Philip Morris
182.53
25.50
16.24%
MO
Altria Group
68.88
7.29
11.83%
BTI
British American Tobacco
55.35
2.25
4.23%
XXII
22nd Century
2.45
-483.55
-99.50%
TPB
Turning Point Brands
75.22
-23.06
-23.46%
RLX
RLX Technology
1.80
-0.79
-30.45%
Philip Morris Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Philip Morris Raises 2026 Earnings Outlook Amid Smoke-Free Push
Positive
Sep 8, 2026
On September 8, 2026, Philip Morris International CEO Jacek Olczak presented at the Barclays Global Consumer Conference, highlighting that the group is on track for another strong year and raising its 2026 adjusted diluted EPS forecast to $8.35...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Philip Morris Raises 2026 Earnings Guidance Amid Currency Tailwinds
Positive
Sep 8, 2026
On September 8, 2026, Philip Morris International said Group CEO Jacek Olczak would address investors at the Barclays Global Consumer Conference in Boston, with the event streamed via live and replay webcasts, underscoring the company’s ongo...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Philip Morris, Altria in new cigarette manufacturing pact
Neutral
Aug 24, 2026
On August 24, 2026, Philip Morris International announced that, through its non‑U.S. affiliates, it had entered into a contract manufacturing arrangement for combustible cigarettes with Philip Morris USA, an Altria operating company. The agr...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Philip Morris adjusts debt profile with loan prepayment
Neutral
Jun 29, 2026
On June 29, 2026, Philip Morris International Inc. prepaid €1.0 billion, roughly $1.1 billion, of principal and accrued interest on the 5-year tranche of its senior unsecured term loan facility arranged in June 2022. Following this partial p...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Philip Morris Declares Quarterly Dividend, Emphasizing Investor Returns
Positive
Jun 11, 2026
On June 11, 2026, Philip Morris International’s board declared a regular quarterly dividend of $1.47 per common share, payable on July 20, 2026, to shareholders of record as of June 25, with the same date set as the ex-dividend date. The mov...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.