Ranpak Holdings (PACK) AI Stock Analysis

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Ranpak Holdings

(NYSE:PACK)

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Rating:52Neutral

Price Target:$3.50▼(-1.41% Downside)

Action:reiterated

Date:11/05/26

PACK’s score is held back primarily by weak price trend/momentum (below major moving averages with negative MACD) and an income statement that remains loss-making despite margin improvement. Offsetting these risks are a meaningful rebound in TTM free cash flow and a constructive earnings call with maintained guidance and strong automation growth expectations, though leverage and regional demand headwinds remain notable constraints.

Positive Factors

Automation growth and improving profitabilityRapid automation growth adds a scalable business line alongside consumables and equipment, while progress toward profitability should improve earnings quality. Reaching management’s revenue target and generating positive contributions in 2027 could strengthen the company’s growth profile over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Persistent net losses and declining TTM revenueThe company has not yet converted operating improvement into consistent bottom-line profitability, and the TTM revenue decline limits operating leverage. Continued losses can constrain internal funding, reduce resilience, and make future earnings dependent on sustained execution and cost discipline.

Ranpak Holdings (PACK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $304.54M
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 599.31K
Price to Earnings (P/E): -8.9
Beta (1Y): 2.16
Revenue Growth: 8.27%
EPS Growth: 6.75%
Country: US
Employees: 800
Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Packaging & Containers

Ranpak Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ranpak Holdings Corp., established in 1972 and headquartered in Concord Township, Ohio, specializes in crafting product protection solutions for both e-commerce and industrial logistics across North America, Europe, and Asia. The company offers a com...

How the Company Makes Money

Ranpak primarily makes money by selling paper-based protective packaging consumables and related packaging systems to businesses that ship goods (notably e-commerce fulfillment operations and industrial shippers). A core driver of its model is recurr...

Ranpak Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:-6.08%|Next Earnings Date:Mar 16, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was broadly positive. Revenue, adjusted EBITDA, automation, margins, liquidity, and operating efficiency all improved, while management maintained full-year guidance and outlined growth opportunities in automation and cold chain. These strengths were tempered by a volatile macroeconomic environment, lower overall volumes, continued weakness in APAC, European demand and margin pressure, foreign-exchange headwinds, warrant provisions, and still-elevated leverage.

Positive Updates

Continued Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Growth

Consolidated net revenue increased 3.4% year-over-year on a constant-currency basis in the third quarter, or 3.8% excluding the impact of warrants. Reported revenue increased 2.3% in the quarter and 8.9% year to date. Adjusted EBITDA increased $1.1 million to $22.5 million in the quarter, up 6.1% in constant-currency terms and 7.7% excluding warrants. Year-to-date adjusted EBITDA increased $5.3 million to $60.5 million.

Negative Updates

Overall Volume Decline and Regional Weakness

Overall volumes declined 2.5% in the quarter. Europe and APAC were softer after a strong second quarter, while Europe and APAC PPS volume declined 4.9% as EMEA customers worked down inventory and APAC distributors adjusted to shorter lead times and lower e-commerce sales.

Company Guidance

Ranpak continues to expect to achieve $60 million in net revenue from automation in 2026, which would be 50% growth versus 2025, with strong growth to continue next year; automation is expected to reach overall profitability and $60 million in revenue this year, break even on an adjusted EBITDA basis this year, and provide a positive contribution in 2027, with a profitable year in automation the whole year in 2027. The company expects a traditional step-up from Q3 to Q4 due to seasonality and continues to expect to meet its prior guidance for the year; it expects Q4 will be positive from an adjusted EBITDA perspective, Europe to be better in Q4, and a roughly 2% headwind in the fourth quarter if rates stay where they are. Cash is expected to continue to improve in the fourth quarter, with a goal of achieving net leverage of between 2.5x and 3.0x over the next 24 months. Additional cold chain capacity is on track to come online in early 2027 and is expected to be a meaningful contributor in 2027, probably starting in the second quarter and as the year progresses, while automation and cold chain are expected to drive the bulk of the growth.

Ranpak Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are improving but not yet consistently profitable. Revenue is down TTM (-4.1%) and net margin remains negative (~-9.5%), but gross margin improved (~28% vs ~24% in 2025) and EBIT moved close to break-even. Cash flow is a key strength with positive TTM operating cash flow (~$44M) and free cash flow (~$39M) after prior volatility. Balance sheet is stable with positive equity, though leverage has risen (debt-to-equity ~0.82) and ROE remains negative.

Income Statement

40Negative

Balance Sheet

56Neutral

Cash Flow

67Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	420.20M	395.00M	368.90M	336.30M	326.50M	383.90M
Gross Profit	124.20M	94.70M	139.80M	123.30M	99.60M	148.90M
EBITDA	52.40M	50.50M	63.60M	55.40M	48.70M	87.60M
Net Income	-34.80M	-38.30M	-21.50M	-27.10M	-41.40M	-2.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.09B	1.12B	1.10B	1.12B	1.13B	1.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	53.40M	63.00M	76.10M	62.00M	62.80M	103.90M
Total Debt	434.90M	430.00M	431.20M	428.80M	399.00M	408.10M
Total Liabilities	578.00M	590.00M	556.10M	550.70M	520.70M	577.20M
Stockholders Equity	513.90M	534.90M	548.10M	572.00M	612.80M	636.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	13.90M	-7.20M	8.30M	-2.70M	-44.70M	-1.40M
Operating Cash Flow	44.30M	23.10M	41.40M	52.60M	1.10M	54.30M
Investing Cash Flow	-40.40M	-32.80M	-32.50M	-52.40M	-37.90M	-69.80M
Financing Cash Flow	100.00K	-7.00M	1.80M	-1.80M	-4.50M	72.00M

Ranpak Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral

Last Price3.55

Price Trends

50DMA3.82Negative

100DMA4.92Negative

200DMA5.05Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.12Negative

RSI47.88Neutral

STOCH66.25Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PACK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.49, below the 50-day MA of 3.82, and below the 200-day MA of 5.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PACK.

Ranpak Holdings Risk Analysis

Ranpak Holdings disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ranpak Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

3 New Risks

1.Our ability to use our net operating loss carryforwards and certain other tax attributes, including our deferred tax assets, may be limited.Q4, 2023

2.We may not be able to successfully implement our strategic transformation initiatives, including our enterprise resource planning system implementation.Q4, 2023

3.We face risks associated with ESG matters, including climate changeQ4, 2023

Ranpak Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

PACK against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GEF	68Neutral	$4.00B	16.08	8.80%	3.25%	-2.47%	409.77%
Sector *	61Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
PKG	58Neutral	$22.65B	31.04	15.58%	2.17%	11.98%	-17.84%
SW	54Neutral	$23.20B	49.47	2.61%	4.06%	1.11%	-37.06%
PACK	52Neutral	$302.83M	-8.88	-6.65%	―	8.27%	6.75%
GPK	50Neutral	$3.30B	44.28	2.27%	3.97%	0.35%	-85.33%
SON	45Neutral	$4.92B	-23.51	-6.12%	4.33%	3.56%	-11673.60%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

PACK and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
PACK	Ranpak Holdings Corp. Class A	3.55	-1.63	-31.47%
GPK	Graphic Packaging Holding	11.07	-4.41	-28.50%
GEF	Greif Class A	72.51	13.06	21.96%
PKG	Packaging Corporation Of America	253.01	58.84	30.30%
SON	Sonoco Products Company	49.60	9.66	24.19%
SW	Smurfit Westrock PLC	44.03	10.38	30.85%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 05, 2026

Ranpak Holdings AI Stock Analysis