Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding (OLLI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.64B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.12M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 38.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.72
• Revenue Growth: 10.14%
• EPS Growth: 5.01%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,900
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Discount Stores
• EPS (TTM): 0.99
• Shares Outstanding: 61,310,150
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,176,385
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,123,597
• PEG Ratio: 3.15
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.03
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.01
• P/FCF Ratio: 63.98
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.16
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.64
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.93
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 27.00
• 1Y Price Target: $146.57
• Price Target Upside: 13.62% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $151.00 ▲(17.05% Upside)

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding's strong financial performance and positive earnings call results are the primary drivers of its high score. The company's robust sales growth, store expansion, and improved margins are significant strengths. However, the high P/E ratio suggests potential overvaluation, and technical indicators show mixed signals, which slightly temper the overall score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Ollie's strong revenue growth reflects its ability to attract customers and expand market share, indicating a robust business model and effective sales strategies.

Store Expansion

The successful store expansion enhances Ollie's market presence and potential revenue streams, supporting long-term growth and competitive positioning.

Loyalty Program Growth

Growth in the loyalty program indicates strong customer retention and increased sales per customer, bolstering Ollie's revenue and market stability.

Negative Factors

Rising SG&A Expenses

Increased SG&A expenses can pressure profit margins, potentially reducing net income and affecting the company's ability to invest in growth initiatives.

Preopening and Dark Rent Costs

High preopening and dark rent costs may strain financial resources, impacting short-term profitability and cash flow management.

Slowing Revenue Growth Rate

A slowing revenue growth rate could signal market saturation or increased competition, potentially limiting future growth opportunities for Ollie's.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates as a retailer of brand name merchandise. The company offers housewares, bed and bath, food, floor coverings, health and beauty aids, books and stationery, toys, and electronics; and other products, including hardware, candy, clothing, sporting goods, pet and lawn, and garden products. It provides its products primarily under the Ollie's, Ollie's Bargain Outlet, Good Stuff Cheap, Ollie's Army, Real Brands Real Cheap!, Real Brands! Real Bargains, Sarasota Breeze, Steelton Tools, American Way, and Middleton Home names. As of August 3, 2022, it operated 450 stores in 29 states throughout half of the United States. The company was formerly known as Bargain Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. in March 2015. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

How the Company Makes Money

Ollie's generates revenue primarily through the sale of discounted merchandise in its retail stores. The company's revenue model is based on purchasing overstock and closeout items directly from manufacturers and wholesalers at a deep discount, which allows them to pass on savings to consumers while maintaining healthy profit margins. Key revenue streams include sales from a diverse array of product categories, including food, cleaning supplies, and home goods. Additionally, Ollie's benefits from a loyal customer base that seeks value and variety, which drives repeat business. The company's strategic partnerships with suppliers also enable it to secure favorable pricing and exclusive deals on inventory, further enhancing its profit potential.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding exhibits strong financial health with solid revenue growth, efficient operations, and robust cash flow management. The balance sheet is stable, though rising debt levels warrant monitoring. Overall, the company is well-positioned in the discount retail industry, but should continue to focus on sustaining growth and managing leverage effectively.

Income Statement

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding shows strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 4.33% and consistent gross profit margins around 40%. The net profit margin is healthy at 8.59%, indicating effective cost management. EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, reflecting operational efficiency. However, the revenue growth rate has slowed compared to previous years, which could be a concern if the trend continues.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a solid balance sheet with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.38, indicating prudent leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is decent at 12.12%, showcasing effective use of equity capital. The equity ratio stands at 63.74%, reflecting a strong equity base. However, increasing debt levels over time could pose a risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Ollie's demonstrates robust cash flow management with a significant free cash flow growth rate of 78.63% TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.62, indicating good cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.44, suggesting a healthy cash flow relative to earnings. Despite these strengths, the company should focus on maintaining consistent cash flow growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2023	Dec 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.44B	2.27B	2.27B	2.10B	2.10B	1.83B
Gross Profit	994.43M	914.45M	914.45M	832.37M	832.37M	656.09M
EBITDA	328.82M	293.46M	293.46M	277.42M	277.42M	162.57M
Net Income	213.31M	199.76M	199.76M	181.44M	181.44M	102.79M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.80B	2.56B	2.56B	2.29B	2.29B	2.04B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	317.06M	428.67M	428.67M	353.24M	353.24M	270.76M
Total Debt	665.58M	564.87M	564.87M	488.75M	488.75M	441.18M
Total Liabilities	1.02B	865.84M	865.84M	786.36M	786.36M	682.03M
Stockholders Equity	1.79B	1.70B	1.70B	1.51B	1.51B	1.36B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	170.67M	106.90M	106.90M	130.09M	130.09M	62.68M
Operating Cash Flow	252.81M	227.45M	227.45M	254.50M	254.50M	114.35M
Investing Cash Flow	-153.95M	-255.34M	-255.34M	-150.09M	-150.09M	-111.45M
Financing Cash Flow	-38.29M	-33.25M	-33.25M	-48.74M	-48.74M	-39.27M

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 129.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLLI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 129 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 130.83, below the 50-day MA of 132.11, and above the 200-day MA of 118.37, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OLLI.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PSMT	78 Outperform	$3.65B	25.00	12.34%	1.02%	7.47%	15.20%
OLLI	78 Outperform	$7.64B	38.50	12.63%	―	10.14%	5.01%
DG	72 Outperform	$21.84B	18.35	15.60%	2.32%	4.98%	-15.98%
SFM	72 Outperform	$10.04B	21.96	36.94%	―	16.83%	52.71%
BJ	66 Neutral	$11.87B	20.68	30.84%	―	2.48%	9.41%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
DLTR	53 Neutral	$18.89B	―	20.07%	―	-29.67%	-178.03%