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Vector
(VCT)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▲(1.01% Upside)
Action:N/A
Date:10/05/26
The score is driven primarily by improving profitability and a healthier leverage profile, tempered by volatile and relatively thin free cash flow due to heavy capex. Earnings call guidance is constructive with higher FY27 EBITDA expectations, while technicals are only mildly supportive and valuation is helped by an attractive dividend yield but limited by a mid-to-high P/E.
Positive Factors
Profitability Growth
Strong EBITDA and NPAT growth indicates improved earnings capacity, supported by higher regulated electricity revenue and the absence of a prior gas impairment. Management’s FY27 EBITDA guidance of $540–$560 million suggests this stronger profitability is expected to continue.
Negative Factors
Heavy Capital Intensity
Persistent heavy capital requirements absorb much of Vector’s operating cash flow, leaving free cash flow thin and volatile. This reduces flexibility for debt reduction, dividends, or other investment if operating conditions weaken, especially as FY27 capex is guided to another record level.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability Growth
Strong EBITDA and NPAT growth indicates improved earnings capacity, supported by higher regulated electricity revenue and the absence of a prior gas impairment. Management’s FY27 EBITDA guidance of $540–$560 million suggests this stronger profitability is expected to continue.
Read all positive factors
Vector (VCT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.76B
Dividend Yield5.51%
Average Volume (3M)194.84K
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.0
Beta (1Y)0.19
Revenue Growth8.27%
EPS Growth47.72%
CountryNZ
Employees584
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryDiversified Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.24
Shares Outstanding1,000,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume276,422
30 Day Avg. Volume194,842
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.51
Price to Book (P/B)1.39
Price to Sales (P/S)4.22
P/FCF Ratio49.90
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.20B
Vector Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vector Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in electricity and gas distribution, telecommunication and new energy solutions businesses in New Zealand. The company operates in two segments, Electricity and Gas Distribution. It provides ...
Vector Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 18, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 22, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive performance: strong revenue (+12%), sizeable EBITDA growth (+20%), a large increase in NPAT (+55%), record electricity network investment and improved operating cash flow. Management provided bullish FY'27 guidance (higher EBITDA and record-level capex) and retained a BBB+ rating with positive outlook. Headwinds include flat gas earnings with declining volumes, higher operating and pass-through costs, an accounting loss from the Bluecurrent JV (offset by cash distributions), modestly higher net debt and variability in capital contributions. On balance the operational and financial improvements and constructive guidance outweigh the challenges.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth from Continuing Operations
Revenue from continuing operations increased by $111 million (12%) to just over $1.0 billion, driven primarily by the DPP4 reset applying for the full 12 months.
Negative Updates
Gas Distribution Weakness and Uncertainty
Gas Distribution adjusted EBITDA was flat at $47 million. Gas volumes declined 1.7% year-on-year and total gas connections fell 0.5% to 119,991. Management flagged ongoing market uncertainty and a shift from growth capex to maintenance spending.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth from Continuing Operations
Revenue from continuing operations increased by $111 million (12%) to just over $1.0 billion, driven primarily by the DPP4 reset applying for the full 12 months.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Vector guided FY27 adjusted EBITDA of $540–$560 million (up from FY26’s $482m), gross capital expenditure of $605–$635 million (versus $544m in FY26, likely another record year driven primarily by higher replacement CapEx), and capital contributions of $160–$190 million (FY26: $191m) — the FY27 EBITDA forecast also includes recovery of an additional net $54 million of revenue wash‑ups and IRIS adjustments under DPP4; management expects customer‑driven activity to be broadly in line with FY26 and reiterated a conservative dividend stance given heavy near‑term CapEx (FY26 full‑year dividend $0.26 per share, payout at the bottom of the 70% range).Vector Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
54
Neutral
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.20B | 1.04B | 1.14B | 1.13B | 1.27B |
| Gross Profit | 518.00M | 771.00M | 560.40M | 689.20M | 823.10M |
| EBITDA | 684.70M | 567.30M | 511.50M | 514.40M | 468.90M |
| Net Income | 240.20M | 166.50M | 88.60M | 1.71B | 158.90M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.16B | 6.92B | 7.13B | 7.53B | 6.81B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.40M | 23.30M | 104.60M | 537.00M | 22.50M |
| Total Debt | 2.31B | 2.10B | 2.11B | 2.33B | 3.26B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.53B | 3.32B | 3.35B | 3.57B | 4.38B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.63B | 3.60B | 3.76B | 3.94B | 2.41B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 101.20M | 40.30M | -43.60M | -121.90M | -40.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 632.50M | 515.20M | 445.10M | 517.10M | 518.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -504.90M | -274.40M | -393.00M | 1.07B | -534.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -145.50M | -322.10M | -484.50M | -1.07B | 20.70M |
Vector Technical Analysis
Positive
4.95
Price Trends
4.73
Positive
4.79
Negative
4.71
Positive
Market Momentum
<0.01
Negative
53.81
Neutral
68.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NZ:VCT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.67, above the 50-day MA of 4.73, and above the 200-day MA of 4.71, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NZ:VCT.
Vector Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $4.76B | 19.96 | 6.64% | 5.51% | 8.27% | 47.72% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
64 Neutral | $14.48B | 108.65 | 1.38% | 4.77% | -19.65% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $9.84B | 30.49 | 6.38% | 4.64% | -7.83% | 56250.00% | |
63 Neutral | $9.15B | 20.43 | 8.71% | 7.08% | -6.33% | -0.10% | |
57 Neutral | $3.26B | 31.67 | 2.78% | 6.98% | -24.15% | -49.61% |
* Utilities Sector Average
NZ:VCT
Vector
4.72
0.06
1.37%
NZ:CEN
Contact Energy Limited
8.53
-0.15
-1.71%
NZ:MEL
Meridian Energy Limited
5.36
-0.20
-3.58%
NZ:MCY
Mercury NZ
6.85
0.42
6.53%
NZ:GNE
Genesis Energy Limited
2.47
0.29
13.20%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.