Want to see NZ:MCY full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Mercury NZ
(MCY)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$7.50
▲(11.44% Upside)
Action:N/A
Date:10/05/26
The score is driven primarily by a solid but mixed financial profile: a sharp FY26 earnings rebound and manageable leverage are tempered by revenue softness and weak/uneven free cash flow conversion. Earnings-call guidance and sentiment add support via raised longer-term targets, dividend growth guidance, and demonstrated execution, while valuation is a headwind due to a high P/E despite a healthy yield. Technicals are moderately constructive with the stock trading above key moving averages and neutral-to-positive momentum.
Positive Factors
Renewable generation and earnings growth
Higher renewable output from newly commissioned projects is driving a substantial earnings rebound and expanding Mercury’s generation base. FY27 guidance remains above FY26, while the raised FY30 EBITDAF floor indicates management expects the benefits of capacity growth to persist.
Negative Factors
Revenue softness and earnings volatility
The sharp profit recovery has not yet translated into consistent top-line growth, and historical margin swings show that earnings remain sensitive to operating conditions. Revenue softness and uneven profitability make the durability of the rebound less certain over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Renewable generation and earnings growth
Higher renewable output from newly commissioned projects is driving a substantial earnings rebound and expanding Mercury’s generation base. FY27 guidance remains above FY26, while the raised FY30 EBITDAF floor indicates management expects the benefits of capacity growth to persist.
Read all positive factors
Mercury NZ (MCY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.84B
Dividend Yield4.64%
Average Volume (3M)632.87K
Price to Earnings (P/E)30.2
Beta (1Y)0.73
Revenue Growth-7.83%
EPS Growth56250.00%
CountryNZ
Employees1,301
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRenewable Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.22
Shares Outstanding1,436,932,700
10 Day Avg. Volume616,811
30 Day Avg. Volume632,872
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.86
Price to Sales (P/S)3.03
P/FCF Ratio92.24
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.31
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.46B
Mercury NZ Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mercury NZ Limited is a prominent New Zealand energy provider focused on the generation, wholesale, and retail sale of electricity, alongside other related ventures. The company's operations are divided into distinct Generation/Wholesale, Retail, ...
How the Company Makes Money
Mercury primarily makes money by producing electricity from its generation assets and selling that electricity to customers in New Zealand. A major revenue stream is electricity retailing: Mercury supplies electricity to households and businesses ...
Mercury NZ Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 17, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 23, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a broadly positive operational and financial performance: strong FY '26 EBITDAF (+36%), material generation growth (+15%), disciplined OpEx management, delivery of multiple projects on time and on budget, a strengthened balance sheet (~2.0x net debt/EBITDAF) and an increased dividend (FY '26 +13%). Management provided constructive FY '27 guidance and lifted the FY '30 lower EBITDAF target, while preserving capital discipline. Key risks include hydrology/El Niño uncertainty, some non‑recurring elements in cost savings, timing/FID and transmission constraints for future growth (notably data-center driven demand) and a drilling program whose outcomes will only become clear next year. Overall, highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights, indicating confidence in execution and a positive near- to medium-term outlook.Positive Updates
Strong EBITDAF Growth
FY '26 EBITDAF increased 36% year-on-year to $1,068m, driven primarily by higher renewable generation and cost discipline; FY '27 guidance set at $1,075m and FY '30 lower-end guidance raised to $1.2bn (range $1.2bn–$1.25bn).
Negative Updates
Non-structural Elements in Cost Reductions
Approximately $10m of maintenance reduction included an $8m one-off decline in non-recurring geothermal well repairs, indicating not all FY '26 OpEx reductions are fully structural.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong EBITDAF Growth
FY '26 EBITDAF increased 36% year-on-year to $1,068m, driven primarily by higher renewable generation and cost discipline; FY '27 guidance set at $1,075m and FY '30 lower-end guidance raised to $1.2bn (range $1.2bn–$1.25bn).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Mercury guided FY27 EBITDAF of $1,075m (from a reported FY26 EBITDAF of $1,068m, up 36% on FY25; FY26 normalized base ~$1,050m), FY27 ordinary dividend of $0.29/share (FY26 $0.27, +13%; 18 consecutive years of growth) and FY27 hydro generation of 4.1 TWh with stay‑in‑business CapEx of $150m; it raised the FY30 EBITDAF floor to $1.2bn (range $1.2–1.25bn) based on delivered and near‑term projects, assuming a long‑term price of $120–$130/MWh (real FY27$). Key metrics underpinning the guidance include FY26 generation of 9.1 TWh (+15%), ~1.1 TWh of new generation added this year, 87% of FY30 generation contracted, OpEx held at the $370m target (down $26m vs FY25, ~10% real), $710m reinvested (66% of FY26 EBITDAF), net debt/EBITDAF ~2.0x (peak leverage ~2.6x before declining), $610m liquidity headroom, a $75m geothermal appraisal drilling program, a 3.5 TWh by‑2030 build target (including PKH FID: 192 MW, ~$506m capex, $2.6m/MW, first generation mid‑2028), and safety and customer stats (TRIFR 0.31; ~41% of customers have ≥2 products; churn ~13.7%).Mercury NZ Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.22B | 3.50B | 3.42B | 2.73B | 2.12B |
| Gross Profit | 900.00M | 981.00M | 1.10B | 1.18B | 793.00M |
| EBITDA | 1.07B | 472.00M | 906.00M | 597.00M | 872.00M |
| Net Income | 321.00M | 1.00M | 290.00M | 103.00M | 469.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 10.54B | 9.96B | 9.85B | 9.42B | 9.66B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 77.00M | 86.00M | 44.00M | 75.00M | 65.00M |
| Total Debt | 2.47B | 2.28B | 1.94B | 1.90B | 1.96B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.28B | 5.05B | 5.00B | 4.57B | 4.91B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.26B | 4.90B | 4.85B | 4.85B | 4.75B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 106.00M | 16.00M | 278.00M | 287.00M | 248.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 779.00M | 483.00M | 612.00M | 584.00M | 362.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -695.00M | -437.00M | -366.00M | -271.00M | -534.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -93.00M | -4.00M | -277.00M | -297.00M | 84.00M |
Mercury NZ Technical Analysis
Positive
6.73
Price Trends
6.68
Positive
6.68
Positive
6.45
Positive
Market Momentum
0.06
Positive
53.05
Neutral
38.29
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NZ:MCY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.81, above the 50-day MA of 6.68, and above the 200-day MA of 6.45, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NZ:MCY.
Mercury NZ Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $4.72B | 19.46 | 6.64% | 5.45% | 8.27% | 47.72% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
64 Neutral | $9.84B | 30.24 | 6.38% | 4.64% | -7.83% | 56250.00% | |
64 Neutral | $14.25B | 108.65 | 1.38% | 4.85% | -19.65% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $9.22B | 20.33 | 8.71% | 5.27% | -6.33% | -0.10% | |
57 Neutral | $3.23B | 31.16 | 2.78% | 7.04% | -24.15% | -49.61% | |
55 Neutral | $13.95B | 24.38 | 7.31% | 1.50% | -8.97% | ― |
* Utilities Sector Average
NZ:MCY
Mercury NZ
6.83
0.47
7.34%
NZ:CEN
Contact Energy Limited
8.55
-0.13
-1.47%
NZ:IFT
Infratil Limited
13.82
1.53
12.42%
NZ:MEL
Meridian Energy Limited
5.41
-0.12
-2.17%
NZ:VCT
Vector
4.78
0.11
2.44%
NZ:GNE
Genesis Energy Limited
2.46
0.23
10.46%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.