Infratil Limited AI Stock Analysis
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Infratil Limited (IFT) AI Stock Analysis
Infratil Limited
(NZX:IFT)
The score is held back primarily by weak cash conversion and consistently negative free cash flow alongside moderate leverage, despite a strong FY2026 profitability rebound. Technical signals are also soft with bearish mid-term trend and negative momentum. These are partially offset by a constructive earnings-call outlook (notably CDC and Longroad growth guidance and improved liquidity/funding profile), while valuation appears moderately expensive with only a modest dividend yield.
Infratil Limited (IFT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- NZD 7.05B
- Dividend Yield
- 1.59%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 844.02K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 24.1
- Beta (1Y)
- 1.24
- Revenue Growth
- -8.97%
- EPS Growth
- ―
- Country
- NZ
- Employees
- 7,076
- Sector
- Industrials
- Sector Strength
- 63
- Industry
- Conglomerates
Infratil Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Based in Wellington, New Zealand, Infratil Limited, established in 1994, is an investment company that acquires and manages infrastructure assets across diverse geographies, including New Zealand, Australia, the United States, Asia, the United Kingdo...
How the Company Makes Money
Infratil makes money primarily through returns generated by its portfolio companies and infrastructure investments. Its main earnings sources typically include: (1) distributions and dividends from operating subsidiaries and equity-accounted investme...
Infratil Limited Earnings Call Summary
The call presents strong growth momentum driven by CDC and Longroad, with near‑term operational EBITDAF approaching $1 billion, major pipeline and contracted capacity gains (CDC >1 GW contracted), accelerated Longroad development cadence, improved funding access (S&P BBB+) and enhanced liquidity. These positives are partially offset by localized weaknesses (NZ diagnostic imaging), write‑downs in Europe (Galileo), regulatory delays (Gurin/Project Vanda and Longroad’s large U.S. project), higher near‑term CapEx and development spend, and valuation headwinds from higher discount rates. On balance, the scale and trajectory of growth opportunities and improved financing position materially outweigh the challenges and timing risks.
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that Infratil finished FY26 with proportionate operational EBITDAF of $989m (top‑half of guidance), proportionate CapEx of $2.7bn and total assets up 13%, with $1.1bn available liquidity, an S&P BBB+ rating and a dividend of $0.1365/share (DRP 2%); CDC now has >1GW contracted, completed 350/450MW under construction, had 572MW under construction at year‑end, saw CapEx rise to $2.1bn, and is guided to FY27 EBITDAF of $680–720m, $1bn in FY28 and a pathway to $2bn by FY30; Longroad lifted EBITDA ~170% to $121m, has OpCo run‑rate EBITDAF of US$367m, two GW under construction plus 1.7GW to commence (3.7GW total), has increased development cadence from 1.5 to 2GW p.a. (+33%), qualified >6GW for tax credits, acquired a 2.8GW project, is targeting US$1bn OpCo run‑rate EBITDAF by decade‑end, has FY27 guidance of US$120–135m and will receive up to US$300m of additional Infratil equity over two years; other notable metrics include One NZ’s EonFiber EBITDAF of $65m and doubled free cash flow and dividends.
Infratil Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Profitability rebounded strongly in FY2026 (net margin ~18.7%, EBITDA margin ~40.6%) after FY2025 losses, but results remain volatile with revenue down ~13.4% in FY2026. Leverage is moderate-to-elevated (debt-to-equity ~1.03) and the key weakness is persistently negative free cash flow (FY2026 FCF ~-249M), indicating cash consumption despite positive earnings.
Income Statement
63PositiveBalance Sheet
58NeutralCash Flow
34Negative| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.95B | 2.95B | 3.35B | 3.00B | 1.19B | 858.90M |
| Gross Profit | 275.40M | 318.10M | 3.12B | 1.51B | 1.18B | 856.40M |
| EBITDA | 661.80M | 1.19B | 856.80M | 1.91B | 778.30M | 385.80M |
| Net Income | 549.80M | 549.80M | -286.30M | 854.00M | 643.10M | 1.17B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 18.85B | 18.85B | 17.24B | 16.11B | 10.19B | 9.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 312.60M | 312.60M | 293.70M | 236.20M | 774.50M | 851.00M |
| Total Debt | 7.92B | 7.92B | 7.05B | 6.86B | 3.39B | 3.68B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.32B | 10.32B | 9.03B | 8.64B | 4.38B | 4.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.68B | 7.68B | 6.66B | 5.92B | 4.21B | 3.71B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -248.90M | -248.90M | -211.90M | -58.80M | -155.60M | -32.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 195.00M | 195.00M | 386.40M | 457.80M | 8.80M | 82.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.09B | -1.09B | -1.39B | -2.65B | 485.10M | 164.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 911.40M | 911.40M | 1.06B | 1.63B | -570.50M | 122.70M |
Infratil Limited Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NZ:IFT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.70, above the 50-day MA of 13.58, and above the 200-day MA of 13.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NZ:IFT.
Infratil Limited Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
NZ:POT66Neutral
NZ:MCY64Neutral
NZ:MEL64Neutral
NZ:CEN63Neutral
NZ:AIA57Neutral- NZ:IFT55Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZ:POT | 66Neutral | NZD 5.59B | 36.00 | 6.78% | 2.93% | 4.13% | -10.00% |
| NZ:MCY | 64Neutral | NZD 9.57B | 29.73 | 6.38% | 4.77% | -7.83% | 56250.00% |
| NZ:MEL | 64Neutral | NZD 15.36B | 118.01 | 1.38% | 4.50% | -19.65% | ― |
| Sector * | 63Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
| NZ:CEN | 63Neutral | NZD 9.38B | 20.50 | 8.71% | 5.18% | -6.33% | -0.10% |
| NZ:AIA | 57Neutral | NZD 15.32B | 46.89 | 3.12% | 3.24% | 4.64% | -24.03% |
| NZ:IFT | 55Neutral | NZD 13.51B | 24.13 | 7.31% | 1.59% | -8.97% | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZ:IFT | Infratil Limited | 13.66 | 1.88 | 15.95% | |
| NZ:AIA | Auckland International Airport Limited | 9.00 | 1.28 | 16.54% | |
| NZ:CEN | Contact Energy Limited | 8.65 | -0.58 | -6.28% | |
| NZ:MEL | Meridian Energy Limited | 5.94 | 0.33 | 5.96% | |
| NZ:MCY | Mercury NZ Ltd. | 6.64 | 0.39 | 6.26% | |
| NZ:POT | Port of Tauranga | 8.21 | 0.72 | 9.66% |
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 05, 2026