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Neste
(OTC:NTOIY)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$19.00
▲(2.37% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:10/25/26
The score is supported primarily by improved TTM fundamentals (profitability rebound, positive free cash flow, and improving leverage) and a constructive earnings call highlighting record EBITDA/margins and active deleveraging. These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum (negative MACD, sub-50 RSI, price below key short-term averages) and ongoing durability risks (cyclical margins, negative TTM free cash flow growth, low cash coverage) plus near-term operational/turnaround and working-capital headwinds discussed on the call.
Positive Factors
Renewable-fuel demand tailwinds
Supportive EU and U.S. renewable-fuel policies can strengthen demand for Neste’s renewable diesel and SAF over multiple quarters. Regulatory incentives also improve the commercial relevance of its low-carbon products and reinforce its positioning in transportation and aviation decarbonization.
Negative Factors
Renewable Products underutilization
Utilization below target limits the amount of renewable fuel Neste can produce from its installed assets and can dilute fixed-cost absorption. Persistent reliability problems could therefore restrain margins and delay the full benefit of renewable demand growth unless upgrades deliver sustained improvement.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Renewable-fuel demand tailwinds
Supportive EU and U.S. renewable-fuel policies can strengthen demand for Neste’s renewable diesel and SAF over multiple quarters. Regulatory incentives also improve the commercial relevance of its low-carbon products and reinforce its positioning in transportation and aviation decarbonization.
Read all positive factors
Neste (NTOIY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$25.09B
Dividend Yield0.71%
Average Volume (3M)3.07K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.8
Beta (1Y)0.38
Revenue Growth6.90%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees4,848
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.99
Shares Outstanding1,538,422,000
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume3,074
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.43
Price to Book (P/B)2.02
Price to Sales (P/S)0.78
P/FCF Ratio17.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.17
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.43
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.00
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.18
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)2.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$25.63B
Neste Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Neste Oyj is a Finnish energy company specializing in both renewable and conventional oil products. Headquartered in Espoo, Finland, the company maintains a significant global presence, serving markets across the Nordics, Baltic Rim, wider Europe,...
How the Company Makes Money
Neste makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling fuels and fuel-related products, with revenues largely driven by sales volumes, product mix (renewable vs. fossil), and market pricing/spreads. (1) Renewable Products: A major earnings drive...
Neste Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 24, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 10, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive financial and strategic picture: record Q2 EBITDA, record RFP margins, a strengthened balance sheet with active deleveraging, confirmed credit rating, favorable regulatory developments (RED III and U.S. RVO) and an encouraging long-term demand outlook. These positives were tempered by operational and timing challenges: RP utilization below target (75%), significant working capital and inventory build-up pressuring cash flow, and substantial scheduled turnarounds that will reduce volumes in H2 and require higher near-term CapEx. Management emphasized ongoing reliability upgrades, prudent turnaround execution and a priority on deleveraging and delivering returns before any major new capacity push. Overall, the highlights (record results, regulatory tailwinds, deleveraging and program savings) outweigh the lowlights (operational reliability, working capital strain and turnaround timing risks).Positive Updates
Record Financial Results
Comparable EBITDA reached a record EUR 1.2 billion in Q2, driven primarily by Renewable Products; almost 75% of EBITDA came from Renewable Products.
Negative Updates
Renewable Products Utilization and Operational Reliability
RP utilization rate was reported at 75%, described as 'unsatisfactory'; management highlighted ongoing operational reliability issues and the need for upgrades to improve utilization.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Financial Results
Comparable EBITDA reached a record EUR 1.2 billion in Q2, driven primarily by Renewable Products; almost 75% of EBITDA came from Renewable Products.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Neste guided that Renewable Products (RP) sales volumes in 2026 are expected to be approximately flat versus 2025 while Oil Products (OP) sales volumes will be lower year‑on‑year due to the planned Porvoo maintenance turnaround; the Group narrowed full‑year 2026 cash‑out CapEx (ex‑M&A) to ~EUR 1.2bn and confirmed three H2 2026 turnarounds—Porvoo ~8 weeks (starting end‑Aug), Rotterdam ~8 weeks (Q4) and Singapore ~11 weeks (from Dec)—which management expects will lift utilization (RP was 75% in Q2, OP ~90% in Q2) and improve the ability to process higher‑premium, more complex feedstocks. Q2 metrics supporting the outlook include RP sales >1.0m tonnes, record comparable EBITDA €1.2bn, RP sales margin roughly $1,200/ton (quarter average >$1,000/ton), total refining margin ≈$25.8/bbl, performance‑improvement program run‑rate EUR 594m (end‑June) with EUR 145m realized in‑quarter, cash flow before financing €164m, and balance‑sheet actions (EUR 500m note tender) that pushed net debt/ capital below 30% with Moody’s A3 Stable—management says it is comfortably on track to meet its 2025–26 financial targets.Neste Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 20.63B | 19.02B | 20.64B | 22.93B | 25.71B | 15.15B |
| Gross Profit | 3.27B | 1.00B | 2.05B | 3.66B | 3.42B | 2.81B |
| EBITDA | 2.89B | 1.28B | 999.00M | 2.58B | 2.97B | 2.59B |
| Net Income | 1.52B | 138.32M | -95.00M | 1.43B | 1.89B | 1.77B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 17.39B | 15.75B | 15.58B | 15.98B | 14.92B | 12.42B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.08B | 1.37B | 955.00M | 1.58B | 1.27B | 1.72B |
| Total Debt | 4.70B | 5.18B | 5.15B | 4.07B | 2.62B | 1.76B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.93B | 8.44B | 8.16B | 7.52B | 6.59B | 5.43B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.46B | 7.31B | 7.42B | 8.46B | 8.32B | 6.98B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.42B | 825.00M | -369.00M | 849.00M | -546.00M | 1.02B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.24B | 1.75B | 1.18B | 2.28B | 1.20B | 1.99B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.06B | -949.01M | -1.50B | -1.53B | -1.59B | -1.48B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.10B | -299.69M | -314.00M | -441.00M | -37.00M | -377.00M |
Neste Technical Analysis
Negative
18.56
Price Trends
18.53
Negative
17.67
Negative
16.20
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.47
Positive
33.43
Neutral
11.35
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTOIY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.81, above the 50-day MA of 18.53, and above the 200-day MA of 16.20, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.35 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NTOIY.
Neste Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $109.24B | 8.70 | 40.75% | 1.91% | 28.44% | 755.67% | |
74 Outperform | $19.90B | 5.67 | 34.53% | 1.81% | 29.47% | 852.24% | |
74 Outperform | $123.78B | 15.17 | 48.71% | 0.91% | 15.19% | 331.26% | |
73 Outperform | $111.85B | 8.73 | 51.49% | 1.26% | 25.10% | 825.03% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $25.09B | 14.80 | 19.78% | 0.71% | 6.90% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $1.87B | -11.44 | -13.21% | 2.35% | 7.56% | 58.21% |
* Energy Sector Average
NTOIY
Neste
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5.31
48.22%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.