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Northern Oil And Gas
(NYSE:NOG)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$25.00
▼(-5.37% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/20/26
Overall score is held back most by weakened financial performance (TTM net loss and negative free cash flow) despite solid operating cash flow and improved leverage trends. Offsetting this, technicals show a strong uptrend and the earnings call reinforced a cash-flow-focused outlook with improving quarterly results and covered shareholder returns. Valuation is supported by a high dividend yield, but a negative P/E signals ongoing earnings risk.
Positive Factors
Diversified Non-Operated Portfolio
NOG’s non-operated model provides exposure to producing shale basins while third-party operators handle daily field activities. Participation across the Williston and Permian, combined with acquisition-led growth, can broaden production and diversify development exposure over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Profitability Deterioration
The shift from positive 2025 earnings to a large trailing loss shows that revenue stability has not translated into dependable profitability. Compressed gross margins may weaken retained cash generation, reduce capital allocation flexibility, and make future earnings more sensitive to operating and commodity conditions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified Non-Operated Portfolio
NOG’s non-operated model provides exposure to producing shale basins while third-party operators handle daily field activities. Participation across the Williston and Permian, combined with acquisition-led growth, can broaden production and diversify development exposure over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Northern Oil And Gas (NOG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.71B
Dividend Yield6.82%
Average Volume (3M)1.99M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.56
Revenue Growth-3.02%
EPS Growth-183.44%
CountryUS
Employees64
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-5.10
Shares Outstanding106,549,126
10 Day Avg. Volume1,914,018
30 Day Avg. Volume1,985,062
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.58
Price to Book (P/B)0.99
Price to Sales (P/S)1.00
P/FCF Ratio8.30
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.71
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.08
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.05
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.44
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$28.80Price Target Upside9.01% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)4.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.32B
Northern Oil And Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. operates as an independent energy enterprise within the United States. The company's core business revolves around the entire lifecycle of crude oil and natural gas properties, from their acquisition and exploration to t...
How the Company Makes Money
NOG makes money by selling the oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) produced from the wells in which it owns non-operated working interests. Its primary revenue stream is commodity sales: production is marketed into regional markets an...
Northern Oil And Gas Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized clear operational and financial momentum: sequential EBITDA growth (+17%), a large QoQ free cash flow improvement (>400%), strong YoY production and gas volume gains (+9% and +35%), and continued M&A and shareholder return activity (repurchases, dividend). Management also acknowledged near-term headwinds including Q2 Waha-driven curtailments, prior Permian logistics constraints, LOE dynamics from aging wells, and a persistent public-market valuation disconnect despite claiming substantial asset upside. On balance, the company presented multiple tangible wins and a constructive forward outlook while identifying manageable risks that the team has plans to address.Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow Improvement
Adjusted EBITDA rose 17% sequentially; free cash flow increased over 400% from Q1 to Q2, generating $159 million of free cash flow in the quarter.
Negative Updates
Waha Curtailments and Permian Logistics Pressure
Q2 experienced significant curtailments due to challenging Waha economics, which materially impacted activity; Permian volumes were previously hampered by logistical issues, contributing to cautious near-term production cadence.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow Improvement
Adjusted EBITDA rose 17% sequentially; free cash flow increased over 400% from Q1 to Q2, generating $159 million of free cash flow in the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance emphasized strong cash‑flow generation: at current strip prices they expect roughly $1.4–$1.5 billion of adjusted EBITDA for 2026, supported by $850–$900 million of D&C capital that should produce about $375–$500+ million of free cash flow; they also flagged Q2 budgeted capex of $196 million (≈$151M D&C, $45M ground game) and normalized well costs of $761 per lateral foot, noting modest incremental spending could grow volumes while preserving FCF. To underpin that outlook, Q2 results showed adjusted EBITDA up 17% sequentially, free cash flow of $159 million (>400% vs. Q1), total production +9% YoY (gas +35% YoY, +5% QoQ), over $1 billion of liquidity, a $0.45/share dividend (~$48M) described as "several times" covered, 2.95 million shares repurchased (~3% of shares) at a $20.37 average, and an increased repurchase authorization to ≈$243 million.Northern Oil And Gas Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.23B | 2.10B | 2.16B | 1.91B | 1.99B | 975.09M |
| Gross Profit | 766.89M | 675.20M | 835.98M | 913.86M | 1.32B | 586.49M |
| EBITDA | 321.35M | 1.05B | 1.58B | 1.62B | 1.11B | 206.44M |
| Net Income | -486.02M | 38.76M | 520.31M | 922.97M | 773.24M | 6.36M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.83B | 5.41B | 5.60B | 4.48B | 2.88B | 1.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 47.60M | 14.30M | 8.93M | 8.20M | 2.53M | 9.52M |
| Total Debt | 2.72B | 2.40B | 2.37B | 1.84B | 1.53B | 803.44M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.83B | 3.28B | 3.28B | 2.44B | 2.13B | 1.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.00B | 2.13B | 2.32B | 2.05B | 745.26M | 215.13M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -838.46M | 252.83M | -266.09M | -679.02M | -431.36M | -197.32M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.38B | 1.51B | 1.41B | 1.18B | 928.42M | 396.47M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.68B | -1.25B | -1.67B | -1.86B | -1.40B | -634.43M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 321.38M | -247.46M | 266.83M | 684.69M | 467.37M | 246.06M |
Northern Oil And Gas Technical Analysis
Positive
26.42
Price Trends
24.47
Positive
22.12
Positive
23.28
Positive
Market Momentum
0.40
Negative
65.85
Neutral
93.09
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.97, above the 50-day MA of 24.47, and above the 200-day MA of 23.28, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.09 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NOG.
Northern Oil And Gas Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $3.16B | 12.36 | 25.56% | 8.17% | 0.64% | 2.99% | |
79 Outperform | $1.46B | 16.66 | 28.25% | 10.59% | 13.91% | -1.27% | |
75 Outperform | $1.98B | 18.69 | 12.70% | 10.16% | 10.33% | ― | |
74 Outperform | $2.92B | 6.67 | 27.20% | ― | 26.65% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $1.82B | 19.40 | 12.74% | 16.27% | 39.27% | -72.63% | |
62 Neutral | $2.71B | -5.17 | -23.85% | 6.82% | -3.02% | -183.44% |
* Energy Sector Average
NOG
Northern Oil And Gas
26.30
6.23
31.02%
DMLP
Dorchester Minerals
30.00
8.65
40.49%
BSM
Black Stone Minerals
14.79
3.34
29.15%
KRP
Kimbell Royalty Partners
15.78
4.14
35.58%
GPOR
Gulfport Energy
165.59
-16.16
-8.89%
MNR
Mach Natural Resources LP
10.88
0.16
1.48%
Northern Oil And Gas Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Northern Oil And Gas Issues New Senior Notes
Neutral
Aug 26, 2026
On August 26, 2026, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. entered into an indenture with Wilmington Trust pursuant to which it issued $500 million of 7.500% senior notes due September 1, 2034. Interest on the notes will be paid semi-annually starting March 1...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Northern Oil and Gas Prices $500 Million Senior Notes
Positive
Aug 19, 2026
On August 19, 2026, Northern Oil and Gas announced it had priced a $500 million private offering of 7.500% senior notes due 2034 at par to eligible institutional and non-U.S. investors. The notes, which will not be registered under U.S. securities...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Northern Oil And Gas Announces $500M Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Aug 19, 2026
On August 19, 2026, Northern Oil and Gas announced plans to offer $500 million in senior notes due 2034 in a private placement to qualified institutional buyers and certain non-U.S. investors under Rule 144A and Regulation S. The notes will not be...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.