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Mach Natural Resources LP
(NYSE:MNR)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$14.50
▲(15.81% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
MNR scores as above-average primarily on solid financial performance (strong margins and operating cash flow with positive free cash flow), supported by an attractive income profile (high dividend yield) and generally positive earnings-call tone around capital discipline and cash returns. The score is tempered by increased leverage versus earlier years, ongoing cyclicality/volatility in profitability and free cash flow, and only neutral-to-mild technical momentum.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation & margins
Sustained high gross and EBITDA margins with robust operating cash flow and positive free cash flow indicate the business converts production into cash reliably. This durable cash generation supports debt service, variable distributions, and reinvestment flexibility across commodity cycles over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage vs stated target
Leverage materially above the company’s stated 1.0x goal increases sensitivity to commodity swings and refinancing risk. Until leverage meaningfully declines, financial flexibility is constrained and management may need to retain cash or raise capital, limiting strategic options and amplifying cyclical downside risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation & margins
Sustained high gross and EBITDA margins with robust operating cash flow and positive free cash flow indicate the business converts production into cash reliably. This durable cash generation supports debt service, variable distributions, and reinvestment flexibility across commodity cycles over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.08B
Dividend Yield14.34%
Average Volume (3M)319.47K
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.0
Beta (1Y)0.32
Revenue Growth39.27%
EPS Growth-72.63%
CountryUS
Employees840
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.57
Shares Outstanding166,948,090
10 Day Avg. Volume274,189
30 Day Avg. Volume319,472
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.24
Price to Book (P/B)0.73
Price to Sales (P/S)1.23
P/FCF Ratio6.14
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.50Price Target Upside47.76% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)1.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.48B
Mach Natural Resources LP Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mach Natural Resources LP operates as an independent firm within the upstream oil and gas sector, concentrating its efforts on the acquisition, further development, and eventual production of crude oil, natural gas, and associated liquids. Its cor...
How the Company Makes Money
Mach Natural Resources LP makes money primarily by selling produced hydrocarbons (crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs) from its upstream oil and gas properties. Revenue is generated based on production volumes multiplied by realized commodity prices,...
Mach Natural Resources LP Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong cash generation, high historical returns (CROCI), substantial distributions, large HBP acreage, and meaningful operational optionality—particularly in Oswego and the Mancos—while candidly addressing near-term challenges: elevated leverage (projected ~1.4x vs. 1.0x target), weak natural gas prices and basis volatility that delay Mancos completions, and a quarter of CapEx above the reinvestment guideline. Management articulated clear plans to deleverage (ATM program, potential distribution adjustments, prefer accretive equity-financed acquisitions) and maintain capital discipline. On balance, the company’s high cash returns, liquidity and asset optionality outweigh the near-term headwinds, but execution on deleveraging and gas-market recovery are key near-term risks.Positive Updates
Strong production and product mix
Total production of 149,000 BOE/d with a balanced mix: 15% oil, 69% natural gas, and 16% NGLs, providing portfolio optionality across commodity cycles.
Negative Updates
Elevated leverage vs. stated target
Projected leverage of ~1.4x debt to EBITDA at year-end versus the company target of 1.0x; management has prioritized returning leverage to 1.0x by end of 2027 but has not yet reduced leverage materially.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong production and product mix
Total production of 149,000 BOE/d with a balanced mix: 15% oil, 69% natural gas, and 16% NGLs, providing portfolio optionality across commodity cycles.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management emphasized disciplined capital allocation and clear targets: maintain a reinvestment rate below 50% of operating cash flow (Q development CapEx $97M = 63% of OCF; YTD CapEx ≈50%), bring leverage down to ~1.0x debt/EBITDA (projected ~1.4x at year-end) before end of 2027, and optionally raise up to $100M via an ATM; distributions remain variable (this quarter’s CAD $60M → $0.36/unit; total distributions since 2024 = $6.67; distribution yield ~15% since 2024 through Q1‑2026 and ~4x peer average). Quarterly operating/financial metrics referenced as context include production of 149,000 BOE/d (15% oil/69% gas/16% NGLs), realized prices of $95.40/ bbl oil, $1.93/Mcf gas, $28.99/NGL, oil & gas revenues $360M (total revenues incl. hedges/midstream $406M), adjusted EBITDA $182M, operating cash flow $154M, LOE $98M ($7.21/BOE), cash G&A $7M ($0.54/BOE), cash $41M and $270M facility availability; operational guidance: keep a rig in the Oswego through 2027 (Oswego ROR ~85–87% at $75 oil; ~160k bbls targeted for ~$3.3M drill/complete), three rigs currently in Oklahoma, defer Mancos completions to next year to stay within CapEx limits while targeting Mancos completed well costs ~$13M (vs historical ~$20M) with IPs >25 MMcf/d and 575,000 San Juan acres (can hold ~350 MMcf/d flat with 5 net wells/yr or exceed 500 MMcf/d with 10 net wells/yr).Mach Natural Resources LP Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2024 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.45B | 1.18B | 969.63M | 762.31M | 937.41M | 392.50M |
| Gross Profit | 771.45M | 392.02M | 331.83M | 386.80M | 547.84M | 216.33M |
| EBITDA | 587.03M | 507.97M | 560.74M | 495.38M | 610.28M | 180.72M |
| Net Income | 243.60M | 285.97M | 185.18M | 346.56M | 516.84M | 138.37M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.68B | 3.78B | 2.34B | 2.30B | 887.44M | 525.38M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 41.19M | 42.63M | 105.78M | 152.79M | 29.42M | 59.27M |
| Total Debt | 1.19B | 1.16B | 766.17M | 824.49M | 99.71M | 85.80M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.83B | 1.79B | 1.14B | 1.11B | 294.21M | 246.68M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.84B | 1.99B | 1.20B | 1.19B | 593.23M | 278.70M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 159.58M | 236.41M | 284.98M | 176.94M | 310.52M | 157.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 558.26M | 506.96M | 505.29M | 491.74M | 553.54M | 198.46M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -842.78M | -899.16M | -306.32M | -1.03B | -372.66M | -194.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 311.92M | 329.06M | -245.99M | 658.79M | -210.74M | -4.58M |
Mach Natural Resources LP Technical Analysis
Negative
12.52
Price Trends
12.64
Negative
12.67
Negative
11.90
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.07
Positive
44.44
Neutral
16.85
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MNR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.74, below the 50-day MA of 12.64, and above the 200-day MA of 11.90, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.85 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MNR.
Mach Natural Resources LP Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $1.41B | 15.86 | 28.25% | 9.14% | 13.91% | -1.27% | |
75 Outperform | $1.94B | 18.08 | 12.70% | 10.11% | 10.33% | ― | |
75 Outperform | $2.65B | 8.89 | 12.81% | ― | 84.28% | ― | |
71 Outperform | $2.08B | 22.02 | 12.74% | 13.59% | 39.27% | -72.63% | |
67 Neutral | $2.79B | -7.15 | -19.26% | ― | 2.44% | -144.04% | |
66 Neutral | $1.07B | 15.12 | 961.81% | 6.64% | -2.95% | -2.96% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
MNR
Mach Natural Resources LP
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0.08
0.66%
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Mach Natural Resources LP Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Mach Natural Resources Posts Strong Q2 2026 Results
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
On August 6, 2026, Mach Natural Resources LP reported second-quarter 2026 results, posting total revenue of $406 million, net income of $98 million, Adjusted EBITDA of $182 million and net cash from operating activities of $154 million. Average pr...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Mach Natural Resources Launches $100 Million ATM Program
Positive
May 22, 2026
On May 22, 2026, Mach Natural Resources LP entered into an equity distribution agreement with Morgan Stanley Co. LLC, allowing the company to issue and sell up to $100 million of common units from time to time in an at-the-market equity program. ...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Mach Natural Resources Reports Q1 2026 Results and Distribution
Neutral
May 7, 2026
Mach Natural Resources LP, an independent upstream oil and gas producer with operations across the Anadarko, Permian and San Juan basins, reported its financial and operating results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The partnership focuses on...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.