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Black Stone Minerals
(NYSE:BSM)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$17.00
▲(16.04% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/05/26
BSM scores well primarily on strong profitability and free-cash-flow generation, supporting an attractive income profile (high yield) at a reasonable earnings multiple. Technicals are supportive with the stock trading above key moving averages, though short-term momentum appears somewhat stretched. The main constraints on the score are commodity-cycle sensitivity and rising balance-sheet/capital-structure risk (increased debt and preferred equity), alongside near-term production variability highlighted on the latest earnings call.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Consistent high cash conversion and large trailing free cash flow provide durable coverage for distributions, capital deployment, and acquisitions. Strong FCF ability supports long-term payout sustainability and funding for opportunistic mineral purchases without heavy reliance on external financing.
Negative Factors
Commodity and Operator Sensitivity
As a non‑operating minerals and royalty owner, revenue is structurally linked to commodity prices and operator drilling schedules. That dependence creates persistent volatility in receipts and makes multi‑quarter cash flow visibility contingent on third‑party capex and commodity cycles, limiting predictability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation
Consistent high cash conversion and large trailing free cash flow provide durable coverage for distributions, capital deployment, and acquisitions. Strong FCF ability supports long-term payout sustainability and funding for opportunistic mineral purchases without heavy reliance on external financing.
Read all positive factors
Black Stone Minerals Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down where sales and cash come from—royalties, working interests, mineral sales, and other services—revealing how reliant the company is on recurring royalty checks versus more volatile operational income and where growth or concentration risks lie.
Breaks down where sales and cash come from—royalties, working interests, mineral sales, and other services—revealing how reliant the company is on recurring royalty checks versus more volatile operational income and where growth or concentration risks lie.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBlack Stone Minerals (BSM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.10B
Dividend Yield8.36%
Average Volume (3M)297.24K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.1
Beta (1Y)0.13
Revenue Growth0.64%
EPS Growth2.99%
CountryUS
Employees129
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.21
Shares Outstanding212,710,570
10 Day Avg. Volume322,868
30 Day Avg. Volume297,240
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.92
Price to Book (P/B)2.50
Price to Sales (P/S)6.66
P/FCF Ratio9.43
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.00Price Target Upside9.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.75
Revenue Forecast (FY)$449.40M
Black Stone Minerals Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Black Stone Minerals, L.P. (BSM) is a U.S. oil and gas minerals and royalty company that acquires, owns, and manages mineral and royalty interests across multiple producing basins. The company typically does not operate wells; instead, it particip...
How the Company Makes Money
BSM primarily makes money by collecting payments tied to oil and natural gas production from properties where it owns mineral and royalty interests, while third-party exploration and production companies (operators) drill and operate the wells.
K...
Black Stone Minerals Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed solid operational progress and strong financial results driven by oil-weighted production, supportive commodity prices, active leasing and a focused acquisition program—culminating in a 7% distribution increase. Near-term challenges include lumpiness and a quarter-over-quarter production decline driven by Haynesville gas volumes, a moderate increase in leverage with ~$300M of preferred equity outstanding, and localized operator setbacks. Management emphasized confidence in upcoming development activity (Shelby Trough, Haynesville expansion, Southern Delaware) and the ability to convert activity into sustainable production and cash flow.Positive Updates
Distribution Increase
Quarterly distribution raised 7% to $0.32 per unit (annualized $1.28), supported by 1.18x coverage for the quarter, reflecting management's confidence in sustaining the higher payout.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Production Decline from Q1
Production dipped from the first quarter, primarily due to lower natural gas mineral and royalty volumes in the Haynesville; management emphasized lumpiness in timing of wells coming online but did not quantify the percentage decline.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Distribution Increase
Quarterly distribution raised 7% to $0.32 per unit (annualized $1.28), supported by 1.18x coverage for the quarter, reflecting management's confidence in sustaining the higher payout.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management positioned 2026 as an inflection year and raised the quarterly distribution 7% to $0.32 ($1.28 annualized) with 1.18x coverage for the quarter; Q2 reported mineral royalty production of 32.5 MBoe/d and total production of 33.5 MBoe/d (down from Q1 due to lower Haynesville gas), average realized price ex‑derivatives of $37.82/BoE, net income ≈$106M, adjusted EBITDA $91M and distributable cash flow $80M, with oil and condensate representing 65% of oil & gas revenues. They expect continued production growth as development programs progress, noted ~$40M of mineral/royalty acquisitions in Q2 (≈$300M deployed since the program began), ~ $13M of lease bonus/other income in H1, ~$6.5M of lease refunds collected, roughly 19 rigs active in the 3‑county Shelby Trough, Adamas operating 2 rigs (4 wells turned to sales in July, 8 more expected in the remainder of 2026 and 17 wells planned in the new program year), Revenant spudding 2 wells, Caturus pilot underway with development drilling expected in H2 2026, Blue Arrow turning 3 wells with 22 remaining wells expected online in H2 2026 into 2027, and leverage at just over 0.5x with ~$300M of preferred on the balance sheet.Black Stone Minerals Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
85
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 483.66M | 422.33M | 439.43M | 501.10M | 784.28M | 505.73M |
| Gross Profit | 379.09M | 316.27M | 334.95M | 387.05M | 657.87M | 381.85M |
| EBITDA | 334.88M | 347.12M | 319.63M | 470.99M | 530.57M | 248.64M |
| Net Income | 283.59M | 299.93M | 271.33M | 422.55M | 476.48M | 181.99M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.37B | 1.34B | 1.22B | 1.27B | 1.27B | 1.25B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.67M | 1.48M | 2.52M | 70.28M | 4.31M | 8.88M |
| Total Debt | 196.00M | 154.00M | 25.00M | 0.00 | 10.00M | 89.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 252.40M | 207.10M | 89.47M | 49.54M | 61.27M | 184.29M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.11B | 1.13B | 1.13B | 1.22B | 1.21B | 1.06B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 258.54M | 298.41M | 384.83M | 501.44M | 412.42M | 242.25M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 320.38M | 310.17M | 389.04M | 521.25M | 424.98M | 256.88M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -128.37M | -118.27M | -112.24M | -19.74M | -1.22M | -14.32M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -192.86M | -192.93M | -344.57M | -435.54M | -428.34M | -235.48M |
Black Stone Minerals Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $3.10B | 12.05 | 25.56% | 8.19% | 0.64% | 2.99% | |
79 Outperform | $1.38B | 15.52 | 28.25% | 9.14% | 13.91% | -1.27% | |
72 Outperform | $1.99B | 17.71 | 12.70% | 10.11% | 10.33% | ― | |
71 Outperform | $2.12B | 22.26 | 12.74% | 13.59% | 39.27% | -72.63% | |
66 Neutral | $1.06B | 14.87 | 961.81% | 6.64% | -2.95% | -2.96% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
BSM
Black Stone Minerals
14.59
3.55
32.17%
DMLP
Dorchester Minerals
28.05
6.57
30.60%
SBR
Sabine Royalty
72.44
5.54
8.28%
CRT
Cross Timbers Royalty
10.58
2.43
29.82%
KRP
Kimbell Royalty Partners
14.91
2.78
22.90%
MNR
Mach Natural Resources LP
12.60
0.75
6.35%
Black Stone Minerals Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Black Stone Minerals Unitholders Back Board and Pay Plans
Positive
Jun 16, 2026
Black Stone Minerals, L.P. held its 2026 annual meeting of limited partners on June 11, 2026 via live webcast, where unitholders elected all 12 nominated directors to the board of its general partner to serve until the 2027 annual meeting. The vot...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.