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Nike
(NYSE:NKE)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$40.00
▲(1.32% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/16/26
The score is held back primarily by weakening fundamentals (revenue declines, margin compression, and softer 2026 free cash flow) and a weak technical setup (below major moving averages with negative MACD). This is partially offset by a solid balance sheet, a supportive dividend yield, and earnings-call indications of operational progress (performance category/wholesale strength) alongside an earlier-than-expected gross-margin recovery trajectory, though near-term guidance remains cautious and recent results benefited from a notable one-time tariff recovery.
Positive Factors
Strong global brand and diversified distribution
Nike's globally recognized brands, broad product portfolio and combination of wholesale and direct channels provide scale, customer reach and multiple routes to market. This diversified model can support resilience as channel preferences and regional demand evolve.
Negative Factors
Prolonged revenue and profitability deterioration
Consecutive annual revenue declines and materially lower net margins indicate weakened demand and reduced earnings power. Unless product, channel and cost actions reverse the trend, lower profitability may constrain investment capacity and returns over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong global brand and diversified distribution
Nike's globally recognized brands, broad product portfolio and combination of wholesale and direct channels provide scale, customer reach and multiple routes to market. This diversified model can support resilience as channel preferences and regional demand evolve.
Read all positive factors
Nike Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Shows sales split across regions such as North America, EMEA, Greater China and Asia Pacific, revealing where the company is strongest and where growth or risk is concentrated. Geographic mix highlights exposure to local economic cycles, currency moves, and regional competition.
Shows sales split across regions such as North America, EMEA, Greater China and Asia Pacific, revealing where the company is strongest and where growth or risk is concentrated. Geographic mix highlights exposure to local economic cycles, currency moves, and regional competition.
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The Fly
The FlyNike (NKE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$57.25B
Dividend Yield4.24%
Average Volume (3M)24.51M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.3
Beta (1Y)0.95
Revenue Growth>-0.01%
EPS Growth-2.96%
CountryUS
Employees73,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Footwear & Accessories
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.10
Shares Outstanding1,202,111,000
10 Day Avg. Volume15,998,507
30 Day Avg. Volume24,514,310
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-6.78
Price to Book (P/B)4.58
Price to Sales (P/S)1.47
P/FCF Ratio31.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$50.05Price Target Upside26.77% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering25
EPS Forecast (FY)1.73
Revenue Forecast (FY)$45.68B
Nike Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NIKE, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, operates as a global enterprise focused on the design, development, marketing, and sale of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories for all ages and genders. Beyond its primary offerings,...
How the Company Makes Money
Nike primarily makes money by selling branded athletic footwear, apparel, and equipment across three main brand lines: Nike, Jordan, and Converse. (1) Product sales (largest driver): Revenue is generated from the sale of footwear (e.g., running, b...
Nike Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 30, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented meaningful progress in performance categories (notably Nike Running and global football), successful World Cup engagement, wholesale gains and a one-time tariff recovery that materially improved reported results. However, underlying top-line trends remain pressured: Nike Direct/digital declines, sustained sportswear and Jordan underperformance (roughly half of revenue), and pronounced weakness in Greater China and parts of EMEA. Management outlined decisive operational actions and a path to margin recovery beginning in FY27, but near-term revenue moderation and macro / tariff uncertainties persist.Positive Updates
Nike Running Momentum
Five consecutive quarters of double-digit growth in Nike Running, adding roughly $1 billion to the running business and gaining ~5 percentage points of market share in stated footwear across Western Europe and North America.
Negative Updates
Topline Pressure — Revenue Declines
Q4 revenue down 1% reported and down 4% currency-neutral; full-year revenue flat reported and down 2% currency-neutral. Company now expects FY27 revenue to be down low- to mid-single digits.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Nike Running Momentum
Five consecutive quarters of double-digit growth in Nike Running, adding roughly $1 billion to the running business and gaining ~5 percentage points of market share in stated footwear across Western Europe and North America.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Nike guided that revenue will moderate, with Q1 reported and currency‑neutral revenues expected to be down low‑ to mid‑single digits (with no FX benefit and currency‑neutral growth “consistent with recent performance”) and a sequential deceleration into Q2 driven by multipoint headwinds; they reiterated earnings are expected to be flattish over the near term excluding the one‑time tariff recovery. Gross margin expansion is now expected earlier than previously guided—beginning in Q1 (Q1 gross margin “slightly positive”) versus prior expectations of an inflection in Q2—and the company is modeling incremental tariff rates of ~10% through end‑July rising to ~15% thereafter. Q1 SG&A dollars are expected to be flat with operating overhead declining while demand‑creation investment grows high single digits; the full‑year tax rate is expected in the low‑20% range.Nike Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | May 2026 | May 2025 | May 2024 | May 2023 | May 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 46.40B | 46.31B | 51.36B | 51.22B | 46.71B |
| Gross Profit | 19.91B | 19.79B | 22.89B | 22.29B | 21.48B |
| EBITDA | 3.95B | 4.98B | 7.80B | 7.34B | 7.78B |
| Net Income | 3.11B | 3.22B | 5.70B | 5.07B | 6.05B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 38.41B | 36.58B | 38.11B | 37.53B | 40.32B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.03B | 9.15B | 11.58B | 10.68B | 13.00B |
| Total Debt | 11.03B | 11.02B | 11.95B | 12.14B | 12.63B |
| Total Liabilities | 23.55B | 23.37B | 23.68B | 23.53B | 25.04B |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.87B | 13.21B | 14.43B | 14.00B | 15.28B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.18B | 3.27B | 6.62B | 4.87B | 4.43B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.87B | 3.70B | 7.43B | 5.84B | 5.19B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -488.00M | -275.00M | 894.00M | 564.00M | -1.52B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.29B | -5.82B | -5.89B | -7.45B | -4.84B |
Nike Technical Analysis
Negative
39.48
Price Trends
42.02
Negative
42.99
Negative
51.63
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.89
Positive
36.62
Neutral
12.77
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NKE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 39.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.82, below the 50-day MA of 42.02, and below the 200-day MA of 51.63, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.89 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.77 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NKE.
Nike Risk Analysis
Nike disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nike reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nike Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $12.18B | 12.23 | 41.10% | ― | 7.48% | 8.03% | |
79 Outperform | $9.63B | 19.40 | 23.23% | ― | 29.34% | 222.74% | |
70 Outperform | $6.44B | 16.47 | 12.12% | ― | 19.55% | 19.15% | |
68 Neutral | $5.93B | 10.44 | 43.41% | ― | -2.03% | 205.97% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $57.25B | 18.30 | 22.00% | 3.91% | >-0.01% | -2.96% | |
49 Neutral | $28.11M | -0.32 | -173.54% | ― | -38.03% | 18.52% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
NKE
Nike
39.60
-35.70
-47.41%
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BIRK
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35.65
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Nike Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Nike announces leadership changes in key finance roles
Neutral
Aug 10, 2026
On August 4, 2026, Nike, Inc. announced that Johanna Nielsen intends to resign as Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer and Corporate Controller, effective September 4, 2026, to pursue another opportunity, noting that her departure does not ste...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Nike Announces New CFO and Finance Leadership Transition
Positive
Jun 23, 2026
On June 23, 2026, Nike announced a planned finance leadership transition, naming David M. Denton as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer effective mid-August 2026, while current CFO Matthew Friend will step down at that time and re...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Nike Announces Board Transition as John Rogers Retires
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
On June 15, 2026, Nike announced that John W. Rogers, Jr., a board member since 2018 and founder of Ariel Investments, will retire from its board following the September 2026 annual meeting of shareholders, after which the board is expected to shr...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.