Deckers Outdoor (DECK) AI Stock Analysis

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Deckers Outdoor

(NYSE:DECK)

Rating:79Outperform

Price Target:

$119.00

▲(14.83%Upside)

Deckers Outdoor's strong financial performance and positive earnings call results are the primary drivers of the overall score. However, technical indicators signal caution with bearish momentum, which tempers the overall outlook. The valuation is reasonable, although the lack of a dividend yield is a slight drawback.

Positive Factors

Brand Management

The best in class brand management for both HOKA and UGG will drive strong sales, and history will repeat itself.

Revenue Performance

Total revenue of $1.022M came in above estimates, driven by continued strength from both HOKA and UGG, inclusive of strong wholesale shipments and full-price demand at UGG.

Share Repurchase

Management increased its share repurchase authorization to $2.5 billion.

Negative Factors

Guidance Uncertainty

FY26 guidance was not provided due to an abundance of cautiousness around the impact of tariffs on consumer demand.

HOKA Growth Concerns

HOKA's slowing trajectory, shift toward wholesale door growth, and potential demand erosion from price increases raise concerns despite a better than expected quarter.

Tariffs Impact

Tariffs are expected to have a significant unmitigated impact on costs, estimated at $150 million.

Deckers Outdoor (DECK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$15.16B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)3.82M

Price to Earnings (P/E)16.0

Beta (1Y)1.12

Revenue Growth16.22%

EPS Growth29.52%

CountryUS

Employees4,800

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength58

IndustryApparel - Footwear & Accessories

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.00

Shares Outstanding149,435,880

10 Day Avg. Volume2,896,491

30 Day Avg. Volume3,822,111

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio1.23

Price to Book (P/B)6.75

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio26.11

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.74

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.59

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.87

Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.35

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$128.78

Price Target Upside24.27% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering21

Deckers Outdoor Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDeckers Outdoor Corporation is a global leader in designing, marketing, and distributing innovative footwear, apparel, and accessories. Headquartered in Goleta, California, the company operates in the lifestyle and performance sectors, primarily through its well-known brands such as UGG, HOKA ONE ONE, Teva, and Sanuk. Deckers is renowned for its high-quality products that cater to a diverse consumer base, ranging from casual and outdoor enthusiasts to fashion-forward individuals.

How the Company Makes MoneyDeckers Outdoor Corporation generates revenue through the sale of its branded footwear, apparel, and accessories. The company operates a multi-channel distribution strategy, which includes wholesale sales to retailers, direct-to-consumer sales through brand-specific e-commerce websites, and company-owned retail stores. A significant portion of the company's revenue is driven by its flagship brand, UGG, known for its iconic sheepskin boots and slippers. In addition to UGG, Deckers benefits from the growing popularity of its performance footwear brand, HOKA ONE ONE, which appeals to athletes and fitness enthusiasts. The company also leverages partnerships and collaborations to enhance brand visibility and expand its market reach, further contributing to its financial performance.

Deckers Outdoor Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Segment

Revenue by Segment
Examines revenue from different business segments, providing insight into which product lines or services are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.

Chart InsightsDeckers Outdoor's HOKA brand continues to drive growth, with significant revenue increases, particularly internationally. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties and tariff impacts, HOKA is projected to be the fastest-growing brand, supported by strong brand awareness initiatives. UGG also shows robust growth, contributing to a record fiscal year 2025 performance. However, challenges such as increased tariffs and potential demand erosion due to economic conditions could pose risks. The company plans to counter these challenges with strategic pricing and cost-sharing, maintaining a balanced direct-to-consumer and wholesale channel mix.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Deckers Outdoor Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 22, 2025

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: -17.81%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

Deckers Outdoor Corporation reported a strong fiscal year 2025 with significant revenue and margin growth, particularly from the HOKA and UGG brands. However, there are challenges ahead due to increased tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainties affecting demand. The company remains confident in its strategic initiatives and brand strength but is cautious about potential headwinds in fiscal year 2026.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Fiscal Year 2025 Performance

Deckers Outdoor Corporation achieved record revenue growth of 16% to nearly $5 billion, with gross margin expanding 230 basis points to 57.9% and operating margins improving 200 basis points to 23.6%. Earnings per share increased by 30% to $6.33.

Strong HOKA Brand Growth

HOKA's global revenue rose by 24% to $2.2 billion, with international revenue expanding 39% and US revenue increasing by 17%.

UGG Brand Achievements

UGG's global revenue increased by 13% to $2.5 billion, with international revenue rising 20% and US revenue growing by 9%.

Successful Brand Awareness Initiatives

HOKA's brand awareness in the US increased by 25% to 50%, and international awareness rose by an average of 10%.

Cash and Share Repurchases

The company ended fiscal year 2025 with $1.9 billion in cash and repurchased $567 million worth of shares, reflecting strong financial health.

Negative Updates

HOKA DTC Growth Pressure

HOKA's DTC growth in the US faced a slight decline due to model changeovers, higher promotional activities, and macroeconomic uncertainties.

Impact of Tariffs

The company anticipates $150 million in additional costs due to increased tariffs, with potential negative effects on demand and profitability.

SG&A Expenses Increase

SG&A expenses rose by 17% to $1.71 billion, driven by higher marketing spend and investments in talent and infrastructure.

Potential Demand Erosion

Concerns about consumer spending due to economic uncertainties and price increases could impact future demand.

Company Guidance

During the Deckers Outdoor Corporation Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Conference Call, guidance for fiscal year 2026 was provided, highlighting several key metrics. The company achieved a record revenue of nearly $5 billion in fiscal 2025, with a 16% year-over-year increase. Gross margin expanded by 230 basis points to 57.9%, and operating margin improved by 200 basis points to 23.6%. Earnings per share grew by 30% to $6.33. Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, Deckers anticipates continued growth, albeit in a challenging environment due to uncertainties such as shifting US trade policies. The company plans to mitigate a projected $150 million tariff impact through selective pricing strategies and cost-sharing with partners. HOKA is expected to be the fastest-growing brand, with international growth projected to outpace the US. Deckers aims to maintain a balanced channel mix of 50/50 direct-to-consumer (DTC) and wholesale. Overall, the company remains confident in its long-term strategy, focusing on innovation and expanding its global brand presence.

Deckers Outdoor Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Deckers Outdoor exhibits a strong financial performance with impressive growth in revenue, profitability, and cash flow generation. The balance sheet is solid, characterized by low leverage and effective equity utilization. While liabilities have increased, they are well-managed relative to the company's substantial equity base.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Deckers Outdoor has shown strong revenue growth with a significant increase in total revenue from $2.13 billion in 2020 to $4.99 billion in 2025. Gross profit margins have been consistently high, reaching 57.88% in 2025, indicating efficient production and cost management. Net profit margin improved to 19.38% in 2025, reflecting enhanced operational profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins increased consistently, showcasing strong core earnings growth. The company has demonstrated a robust trajectory in revenue and profitability.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The balance sheet is strong with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11 in 2025, indicating conservative leverage and financial stability. Deckers Outdoor's equity ratio improved to 70.39%, highlighting a strong equity base. Return on equity has been impressive, reaching 38.45% in 2025, showcasing efficient use of shareholder funds. The company maintains substantial cash reserves, supporting its liquidity and operational flexibility. However, the total liabilities have increased, which could pose a risk if not managed effectively.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Deckers Outdoor's cash flow performance is robust, with operating cash flow consistently exceeding net income, indicating strong cash generation capability. The free cash flow has grown steadily, underscoring effective capital expenditure management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains healthy at 1.08 in 2025, reflecting efficient cash generation. Free cash flow to net income ratio is strong, further emphasizing the company's ability to convert earnings into cash. Overall, cash flow generation is stable and supports strategic initiatives.

Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
4.99B	4.29B	3.63B	3.15B	2.55B
	Gross Profit
2.89B	2.39B	1.83B	1.61B	1.37B
	EBIT
1.18B	927.51M	652.75M	564.71M	504.20M
	EBITDA
1.32B	1.04B	719.53M	611.15M	548.81M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
966.09M	759.56M	516.82M	451.95M	382.57M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.89B	1.50B	981.79M	843.53M	1.09B
	Total Assets
3.57B	3.14B	2.56B	2.33B	2.17B
	Total Debt
276.98M	266.88M	246.49M	222.07M	223.04M
	Net Debt
-1.61B	-1.24B	-735.31M	-621.46M	-866.32M
	Total Liabilities
1.06B	1.03B	790.47M	793.42M	723.48M
	Stockholders Equity
2.51B	2.11B	1.77B	1.54B	1.44B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
958.35M	943.82M	456.40M	121.34M	564.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.04B	1.03B	537.42M	172.35M	596.22M
	Investing Cash Flow
-75.00M	-89.33M	-81.01M	-51.01M	-32.17M
	Financing Cash Flow
-581.33M	-417.68M	-309.03M	-367.48M	-129.58M

Deckers Outdoor Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price103.63

Price Trends

50DMA

112.29

Negative

100DMA

129.36

Negative

200DMA

153.70

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-3.17

Positive

RSI

40.44

Neutral

STOCH

27.16

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DECK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 103.63 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 110.43, below the 50-day MA of 112.29, and below the 200-day MA of 153.70, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DECK.

Deckers Outdoor Risk Analysis

Deckers Outdoor disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Deckers Outdoor reported the most risks in the "Production" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Deckers Outdoor Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DECK	79 Outperform	$15.16B	16.02	41.82%	―	16.22%	29.52%
SHOO	76 Outperform	$1.67B	9.92	19.51%	3.65%	10.17%	-4.71%
SKX	72 Outperform	$9.35B	15.03	14.67%	―	10.66%	9.44%
CROX	71 Outperform	$5.47B	5.98	53.70%	―	2.09%	26.18%
BIRK	70 Outperform	$9.93B	36.75	9.35%	―	18.55%	147.70%
WWW	68 Neutral	$1.40B	19.49	25.29%	2.31%	-13.05%	―
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.88B	11.07	2.77%	4.28%	2.67%	-24.94%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DECK

Deckers Outdoor

103.63

-65.95

-38.89%

CROX

Crocs

102.24

-57.44

-35.97%

SKX

Skechers USA

62.53

-10.31

-14.15%

SHOO

Steven Madden

24.23

-18.36

-43.11%

WWW

Wolverine World Wide

17.88

5.44

43.73%

BIRK

Birkenstock Holding plc

52.85

-7.25

-12.06%

Deckers Outdoor Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures

Deckers Outdoor Appoints New Chair of the Board

Positive

May 22, 2025

On May 22, 2025, Deckers Brands announced the appointment of Cynthia L. Davis as the new Chair of the Board, succeeding Michael F. Devine, III, who retired after over 14 years of service. The company also reported a record fiscal year 2025 with a 16% increase in revenue to $4.99 billion and a 30% rise in diluted EPS to $6.33. Deckers continues to focus on long-term growth opportunities, supported by a strong balance sheet and increased share repurchase authorization.

The most recent analyst rating on (DECK) stock is a Buy with a $175.76 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Deckers Outdoor stock, see the DECK Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.