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Birkenstock Holding plc
(NYSE:BIRK)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$51.00
▲(25.52% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/22/26
The score is driven primarily by strong underlying profitability, cash generation, and improving leverage, supported by reiterated guidance for solid constant-currency growth and EBITDA targets. These positives are tempered by weakening technical momentum (negative MACD, low RSI/Stoch, still below the 200-day average) and near-term margin and demand risks from FX, tariffs, and regional disruption, while valuation appears reasonable at ~17x earnings.
Positive Factors
High Profitability & Margins
Sustained high gross and operating margins reflect strong pricing power, a premium brand and favorable product mix (core sandals and growing closed-toe). These durable margins give the company structural earnings resilience and capacity to fund reinvestment and shareholder returns even during cyclical dips.
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth Slowdown
A marked deceleration in TTM revenue growth signals potential saturation or demand softening in core markets. Slower top-line expansion limits operating-leverage upside, increases reliance on margin improvements or buybacks for EPS growth, and raises execution risk on ambitious growth targets.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Profitability & Margins
Sustained high gross and operating margins reflect strong pricing power, a premium brand and favorable product mix (core sandals and growing closed-toe). These durable margins give the company structural earnings resilience and capacity to fund reinvestment and shareholder returns even during cyclical dips.
Read all positive factors
Birkenstock Holding plc Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down sales across regions (Europe, the Americas, Asia-Pacific), showing where Birkenstock earns most of its revenue and which markets drive growth or carry risk from local slowdowns, fashion cycles, or currency moves.
Breaks down sales across regions (Europe, the Americas, Asia-Pacific), showing where Birkenstock earns most of its revenue and which markets drive growth or carry risk from local slowdowns, fashion cycles, or currency moves.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBirkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.89B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.81M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.6
Beta (1Y)1.20
Revenue Growth20.35%
EPS Growth54.59%
CountryUS
Employees6,200
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Footwear & Accessories
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.92
Shares Outstanding183,906,050
10 Day Avg. Volume1,360,377
30 Day Avg. Volume1,805,443
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.25
Price to Book (P/B)2.64
Price to Sales (P/S)3.43
P/FCF Ratio24.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$52.39Price Target Upside28.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)2
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.34B
Birkenstock Holding plc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Birkenstock Holding plc specializes in the creation and distribution of various foot-related products. While renowned for its extensive collection of footwear, which includes sandals, shoes, and closed-toe designs, the company also expands its off...
How the Company Makes Money
Birkenstock primarily makes money by selling BIRKENSTOCK-branded footwear and related products through two main routes: (1) direct-to-consumer (DTC) and (2) business-to-business (B2B)/wholesale. Under DTC, the company generates revenue from sales ...
Birkenstock Holding plc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Dec 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong operational quarter with revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, accelerated DTC and retail expansion, notable strength in APAC and China, successful product-driven ASP improvement, and proactive capital allocation (share repurchase and debt refinancing). The main negatives were largely external and manageable: FX and tariff headwinds, one-time financing/ASR expenses that elevated the tax rate and temporarily increased leverage, higher logistics costs related to Middle East conflicts, and a higher inventory-to-sales ratio influenced by tariffs/FX and the Australia acquisition timing. Management reiterated confidence, raised full-year revenue and EBITDA targets, and provided mitigation context for reported margin pressures.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Raised Guidance
Q3 revenue EUR 720 million, up 13% reported and 15% in constant currency; company raised full-year revenue growth guidance to 15% in constant currency (high end of prior 13%-15% range).
Negative Updates
FX Headwinds
Currency depreciation (USD, CAD, INR, JPY) created a ~180 bps headwind to Q3 revenue growth and full-year FX drag expected ~350 bps; FX reduced adjusted EBITDA by EUR 8 million in Q3 and imposed ~130 bps pressure on adjusted gross margin.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth and Raised Guidance
Q3 revenue EUR 720 million, up 13% reported and 15% in constant currency; company raised full-year revenue growth guidance to 15% in constant currency (high end of prior 13%-15% range).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised fiscal 2026 guidance, now targeting 15% revenue growth in constant currency (top of prior 13–15% range) and adjusted EBITDA of at least €710m; Q4 revenue is expected to remain within the 13–15% annual range with FX and tariffs relatively neutral in Q4 (blended Q4 tariff ~just over 15%), while the full‑year FX drag is ~350 bps. Full‑year adjusted gross margin is guided to 57.0–57.5% and adjusted EBITDA margin to 30.2–30.5% (including ~200 bps headwind from FX and U.S. tariffs); adjusted EPS is expected at €1.90–€2.05 (including ~€0.15–€0.20 of FX pressure) with a 2026 tax rate of 30–31% (recurring rate expected in the high‑20s). CapEx is forecast at €110–130m, net leverage is targeted at ~1.6–1.7x by year‑end (versus 1.8x now; ~1.4x excluding the ASR), and management retains flexibility to deploy up to ~€500m for additional buybacks or refinancing.Birkenstock Holding plc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Dec 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.19B | 2.10B | 1.80B | 1.49B | 1.24B | 962.13M |
| Gross Profit | 1.23B | 1.24B | 1.06B | 925.79M | 749.80M | 545.65M |
| EBITDA | 665.06M | 659.09M | 503.67M | 360.35M | 414.42M | 286.74M |
| Net Income | 356.88M | 348.33M | 191.60M | 75.02M | 187.11M | 116.44M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.17B | 4.94B | 4.88B | 4.83B | 4.79B | 4.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 201.68M | 340.82M | 368.36M | 353.40M | 307.08M | 235.34M |
| Total Debt | 1.37B | 1.31B | 1.35B | 1.95B | 2.05B | 1.92B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.27B | 2.22B | 2.26B | 2.43B | 2.43B | 2.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.90B | 2.72B | 2.63B | 2.40B | 2.36B | 2.06B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 320.64M | 288.28M | 354.80M | 255.79M | 161.54M | 159.65M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 428.97M | 373.23M | 428.70M | 358.73M | 234.14M | 180.93M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -110.14M | -93.18M | -58.80M | -100.73M | -71.65M | -18.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -344.54M | -307.44M | -355.05M | -199.28M | -105.32M | -84.74M |
Birkenstock Holding plc Technical Analysis
Negative
40.63
Price Trends
42.98
Negative
40.40
Negative
40.54
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.59
Positive
35.31
Neutral
26.38
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BIRK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 40.63 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.29, below the 50-day MA of 42.98, and above the 200-day MA of 40.54, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.59 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BIRK.
Birkenstock Holding plc Risk Analysis
Birkenstock Holding plc disclosed 81 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Birkenstock Holding plc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Birkenstock Holding plc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $12.78B | 12.92 | 41.10% | ― | 7.48% | 8.03% | |
71 Outperform | $1.49B | 14.45 | 26.91% | 2.10% | 8.31% | 39.91% | |
70 Outperform | $6.89B | 16.59 | 12.95% | ― | 20.35% | 54.59% | |
68 Neutral | $6.31B | 11.20 | 43.41% | ― | -2.03% | 205.97% | |
64 Neutral | $3.53B | 23.61 | 16.05% | 1.96% | 18.33% | 56.39% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
BIRK
Birkenstock Holding plc
36.74
-11.67
-24.11%
CROX
Crocs
132.56
48.53
57.75%
DECK
Deckers Outdoor
93.30
-10.56
-10.17%
SHOO
Steven Madden
47.35
21.20
81.08%
WWW
Wolverine World Wide
19.88
-8.00
-28.69%
Birkenstock Holding plc Corporate Events
Birkenstock Raises €900 Million in New 2033 Notes to Refinance Debt and Fund Potential Buybacks
Jun 22, 2026
On June 19, 2026, Birkenstock Group B.V. Co. KG, an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Birkenstock Holding plc, closed a €900 million offering of 4.500% senior unsecured notes due 2033 aimed at qualified institutional investors in the U.S....
Birkenstock Prices €900 Million Notes and Warns of Margin Hit From Tariffs and FX
Jun 16, 2026
On June 16, 2026, Birkenstock announced it had successfully priced a €900 million offering of 4.500% senior notes due 2033 via its subsidiary Birkenstock Group B.V. Co. KG, and updated key risk, business and financial disclosures in conjunc...
Birkenstock Prices €900m 2033 Notes to Refinance 2029 Debt and Fund Buyback Options
Jun 16, 2026
On June 16, 2026, Birkenstock Holding plc announced that its indirect subsidiary Birkenstock Group B.V. Co. KG successfully priced a €900 million offering of 4.5% senior unsecured notes due 2033, which are expected to settle on June 19, 202...
Birkenstock Launches €900 Million Senior Notes Offering to Refinance Debt and Fund Share Buybacks
Jun 15, 2026
On June 15, 2026, Birkenstock Holding plc announced that its indirect subsidiary Birkenstock Group B.V. Co. KG launched a €900 million offering of senior unsecured notes due 2033, expected to be guaranteed by certain group subsidiaries and ...
Birkenstock Launches $250 Million Accelerated Share Buyback to Capitalize on Perceived Undervaluation
May 21, 2026
On May 20, 2026, Birkenstock Holding plc entered into a $250 million accelerated share repurchase agreement with Goldman Sachs International, aiming to buy back its ordinary shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Management framed the move ...
Birkenstock Delivers Q2 Revenue Growth Amid Tariffs and FX Headwinds, Reaffirms 2026 Outlook
May 13, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Birkenstock Holding plc reported results for its fiscal second quarter ended March 31, 2026, posting revenue of €618 million, up 8% on a reported basis and 14% in constant currency. Growth was broad-based, with double-digit ...
Birkenstock Posts Larger Balance Sheet and Equity in March 2026 Interim Filing
May 13, 2026
Birkenstock Holding plc reported unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial information for the three and six months ended March 31, 2026, alongside a comparative balance sheet as of September 30, 2025. The filing details a sizeable asset ...
Birkenstock Shareholders Approve 2025 Accounts, Director Slate and Governance Changes at 2026 AGM
Apr 29, 2026
On April 29, 2026, Birkenstock Holding plc held its 2026 annual general meeting, where shareholders approved the company’s annual report and consolidated accounts for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2025, and confirmed EY GmbH Co. KG as...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.