Neurocrine (NBIX) AI Stock Analysis

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Neurocrine

(NASDAQ:NBIX)

74Outperform

Neurocrine's stock score reflects its strong financial performance and promising developments in R&D, tempered by valuation concerns and operational challenges. While the company's financial stability and growth potential are significant strengths, high P/E ratio and reimbursement challenges pose risks. The technical analysis suggests mixed signals, indicating potential volatility.

Positive Factors

Product Launch

The Crenessity launch can drive NBIX shares.

Revenue Growth

NBIX reported record new patient starts for Ingrezza and maintained its 2025 outlook, contributing to a significant positive move in the stock.

Sales Performance

Record new patient starts were attributed to the sales force expansion pull-through and improving formulary access.

Negative Factors

Market Challenges

Ingrezza 2025 commercial dynamics present challenges.

Sales Growth Challenges

To reach the low end of the Ingrezza guide (~$2.5B), sales going forward would need to grow >8% relative to 2024, which is viewed as particularly challenging.

Neurocrine (NBIX) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$10.85B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.63M

Price to Earnings (P/E)33.3

Beta (1Y)0.64

Revenue Growth21.73%

EPS Growth-19.24%

CountryUS

Employees1,800

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength46

IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.08

Shares Outstanding98,938,230

10 Day Avg. Volume1,375,512

30 Day Avg. Volume1,632,153

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.69

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$160.11

Price Target Upside38.37% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering21

Neurocrine Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNeurocrine Biosciences, Inc. discovers, develops, and markets pharmaceuticals for neurological, endocrine, and psychiatric disorders. The company's portfolio includes treatments for tardive dyskinesia, Parkinson's disease, endometriosis, and uterine fibroids, as well as clinical programs in various therapeutic areas. Its lead asset is INGREZZA, a VMAT2 inhibitor for the treatment of tardive dyskinesia. The company's commercial products include ONGENTYS, a catechol-O-methyltransferase inhibitor used as an adjunct therapy to levodopa/DOPA decarboxylase inhibitors for patients with Parkinson's disease; ORILISSA for the management of moderate to severe endometriosis pain in women; and ORIAHNN, a non-surgical oral medication option for the management of heavy menstrual bleeding associated with uterine fibroids in pre-menopausal women. Its product candidates in clinical development include NBI-921352 for treating pediatric patients, as well as adult focal epilepsy indications; and NBI-827104 to treat rare pediatric epilepsy and essential tremor. The company's products in clinical development also comprise NBI-1065845 for the treatment of major depressive disorder; NBI-1065846 for treating anhedonia in major depressive disorder; and NBI-118568 for the treatment of schizophrenia. It has license and collaboration agreements with Heptares Therapeutics Limited; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited; Idorsia Pharmaceuticals Ltd; Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc.; Voyager Therapeutics, Inc.; BIAL Portela & Ca, S.A.; Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation; and AbbVie Inc. Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyNeurocrine Biosciences generates revenue primarily through the sales of its FDA-approved products, with INGREZZA being a significant contributor to its income due to its market presence and demand for treating tardive dyskinesia. Additionally, Neurocrine earns revenue from collaborative agreements and partnerships, such as its collaboration with AbbVie for ORILISSA, where it receives royalties and milestone payments. The company's earnings are further supported by strategic licensing agreements and research collaborations that enhance its product pipeline and expand its market reach. Neurocrine's revenue model is built on a strong foundation of proprietary drug development, strategic partnerships, and a focus on addressing niche therapeutic areas with high unmet needs.

Neurocrine Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Segment

Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and profitability, and indicating the company's strategic focus and market opportunities.

Chart InsightsNeurocrine's revenue from INGREZZA has shown significant growth, with a notable increase in 2024, reflecting record sales. Despite competitive pressures and payer management challenges, the company remains optimistic, projecting further growth in 2025 with strategic expansions in sales and educational efforts. The launch of Quinicity, although initially slow due to reimbursement issues, is expected to contribute significantly in the long term. Neurocrine's focus on expanding its neuroscience pipeline and advancing key programs underscores its commitment to sustained growth and innovation in the field.

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Main Street Data

Neurocrine Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Neurocrine demonstrates strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth and solid profitability. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage and a strong equity base, though there is room for improvement in free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Neurocrine's income statement shows strong growth and profitability. The revenue has increased significantly over the years, with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth rate of 2.43% compared to the previous year. Gross profit margin has consistently remained above 98%, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin for the TTM is 12.67%, showcasing solid profitability. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have slightly declined compared to the annual figures, suggesting a need for operational improvements.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet of Neurocrine reflects a healthy financial position with a strong equity base. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.18, indicating low leverage and financial stability. Return on equity (ROE) is 12.06% for the TTM, suggesting efficient use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is robust at 68.76%, demonstrating a solid capital structure. Overall, the company maintains a stable balance sheet with manageable debt levels.

Cash Flow

Positive

Neurocrine's cash flow statement reveals positive cash generation with a TTM free cash flow of $492.2 million. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.73, indicating strong cash conversion efficiency. However, the free cash flow has decreased from the previous year, showing a decline in free cash flow growth rate. The company needs to focus on enhancing its free cash flow generation for improved financial flexibility.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.36B	1.89B	1.49B	1.13B	1.05B
	Gross Profit
2.32B	1.85B	1.47B	1.12B	1.04B
	EBIT
570.50M	250.90M	249.00M	196.90M	318.90M
	EBITDA
639.70M	358.00M	264.60M	218.70M	336.10M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
341.30M	249.70M	154.50M	89.60M	407.30M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.08B	1.03B	989.30M	711.30M	801.00M
	Total Assets
3.72B	3.25B	2.37B	2.07B	1.73B
	Total Debt
455.10M	428.40M	262.90M	440.40M	412.30M
	Net Debt
222.10M	177.30M	0.00	99.60M	-388.70M
	Total Liabilities
1.13B	1.02B	660.90M	698.50M	608.50M
	Stockholders Equity
2.59B	2.23B	1.71B	1.37B	1.13B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
557.20M	361.60M	322.90M	233.10M	217.60M
	Operating Cash Flow
595.40M	389.90M	339.40M	256.50M	228.50M
	Investing Cash Flow
-126.80M	-467.10M	-177.10M	-130.20M	4.10M
	Financing Cash Flow
-486.70M	65.30M	-234.30M	27.40M	-157.80M

Neurocrine Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price115.71

Price Trends

50DMA

107.47

Positive

100DMA

121.32

Negative

200DMA

124.46

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

3.13

Negative

RSI

60.88

Neutral

STOCH

52.47

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBIX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 115.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 106.13, above the 50-day MA of 107.47, and below the 200-day MA of 124.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 3.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NBIX.

Neurocrine Risk Analysis

Neurocrine disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Neurocrine reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Neurocrine Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (52)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RDY	77 Outperform	$11.43B	18.02	18.51%	0.60%	13.26%	1.33%
NBIX	74 Outperform	$10.85B	33.35	12.43%	―	21.73%	-19.24%
ITCI	63 Neutral	$14.05B	―	-8.58%	―	46.62%	50.50%
PRGO	59 Neutral	$3.37B	―	-3.64%	4.14%	-4.85%	-4290.31%
TEVA	59 Neutral	$19.43B	―	-18.98%	―	3.38%	-175.90%
VTRS	56 Neutral	$10.06B	―	-21.25%	5.47%	-6.88%	-6809.78%
Sector *	52 Neutral	$5.15B	3.56	-42.52%	2.83%	14.56%	-0.53%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NBIX

Neurocrine

115.71

-20.44

-15.01%

RDY

Dr Reddy's Laboratories

13.40

-0.51

-3.67%

VTRS

Viatris

8.77

-2.11

-19.39%

PRGO

Perrigo Company

27.01

-2.60

-8.78%

TEVA

Teva Pharmaceutical

16.93

0.05

0.30%

ITCI

Intra-Cellular Therapies

131.87

65.55

98.84%

Neurocrine Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 5.43%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflected strong performance in new patient starts for INGREZZA and a successful launch of CRENESSITY, highlighting significant achievements in R&D and financial strength. However, challenges in reauthorization and the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act were noted, affecting reimbursement dynamics and sales. Despite these challenges, the company remains well-positioned for future growth.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record New Patient Starts for INGREZZA

The first quarter reflected strong execution across both brands with record new patient starts for INGREZZA.

Successful Launch of CRENESSITY

Neurocrine reported encouraging early adoption of CRENESSITY, achieving net revenue of $15 million in its first full quarter of launch.

Advancement in R&D Portfolio

Progression of osavampator and NBI-'568 into Phase 3 registrational studies, with further expansion of the muscarinic portfolio into new Phase 2 studies later this year.

Financial Strength and Flexibility

Retained a strong balance sheet with approximately $1.8 billion in cash to support commercial and clinical development strategies for continued growth.

Increase in Formulary Coverage

Expanded formulary coverage in Medicare Part D, significantly increasing patient access and providing a foundation to expand the customer base.

Negative Updates

Challenges with INGREZZA Reauthorization

The reauthorization process for continuing patients was more challenging versus prior years, contributing to slightly higher drop-offs and delayed refills.

Impact of Inflation Reduction Act

The Inflation Reduction Act influenced payer behavior and reimbursement dynamics, particularly affecting the prior authorization process.

Gross-to-Net Impact on INGREZZA

Gross-to-net dynamics negatively impacted first-quarter sales for INGREZZA, with expectations of a sequential hit in the second quarter.

Company Guidance

During the Q1 2025 earnings call, Neurocrine Biosciences provided guidance on several key metrics and forward-looking statements. The company reaffirmed its 2025 sales guidance for INGREZZA, projecting a range of $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion, despite a challenging first quarter affected by one less order week, patient reauthorization processes, and gross-to-net dynamics. The quarter saw record new patient starts for INGREZZA and a promising early adoption of CRENESSITY, which achieved $15 million in net revenue from 413 enrollment forms with 70% of dispenses receiving reimbursement. Neurocrine also reported a strong financial foundation with approximately $1.8 billion in cash, enabling continued investment in their robust clinical pipeline. On the R&D front, the company highlighted the progression of osavampator and NBI-'568 into Phase 3 registrational studies, as well as plans to expand their muscarinic portfolio into new Phase 2 studies later this year. The call also noted the strategic transition in leadership, with Dr. Sanjay Keswani set to join as the new Chief Medical Officer.

Neurocrine Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes

Neurocrine Biosciences Appoints Dr. Keswani as CMO

Neutral

Apr 4, 2025

Neurocrine Biosciences announced the appointment of Dr. Sanjay Keswani as Chief Medical Officer effective June 2, 2025, succeeding Dr. Eiry W. Roberts, who will remain as a strategic advisor. Dr. Keswani brings over 20 years of pharmaceutical industry experience and will lead clinical development and medical affairs, enhancing the company’s capabilities as it explores new therapeutic modalities.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.