Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Guidance for Q3 called for consolidated midpoint system throughput of about 182,000 bpd with Hawaii conventional throughput 59,000–65,000 bpd and renewable throughput 1,500–2,000 bpd (after June renewable throughput had ramped to ~3,000 bpd pre-turnaround); Mainland guidance: Washington 40,000–42,000 bpd, Wyoming 17,000–20,000 bpd and Montana 56,000–61,000 bpd (Montana coker down in July, expected back by mid‑August). July’s consolidated refining index was $31.34/bbl (≈$1.60 below Q2 average) and the company expects Q3 Hawaii landed crude differentials of $11.50–$13.50/bbl; the Hawaii turnaround will concentrate financial impacts in Q3, likely holding margin capture below the company’s typical 100%–110% guidance range as imported barrels are costed in Q3. Management also noted roughly $6–8 million of incremental OpEx and a heavier asphalt mix from Montana maintenance, a gradual restart and third‑party sales ramp in Renewables, no significant planned downtime for the remainder of the year, and that a substantial portion of Q2 working‑capital outflows should reverse as inventories normalize.