Vail Resorts (MTN)
NYSE:MTN
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Vail Resorts
(NYSE:MTN)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$141.00
▲(4.16% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/09/26
The score is held back primarily by elevated balance-sheet risk (very high debt-to-equity) alongside slowing cash flow and reduced FY26 guidance. These are partially offset by still-strong operating margins, positive (though weakening) free cash flow, constructive technical momentum, and a high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
High operating profitability
Sustained gross, operating and EBITDA margins indicate durable pricing power and on‑resort spend capture across core resorts. These margins support internal reinvestment and distributions, and provide a structural cushion versus volume swings, underpinning long‑term cash generation and operational resilience.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and equity erosion
Sharp equity erosion and very high leverage materially reduce financial flexibility. High debt magnifies downside during weak seasons, increases interest burden and constrains strategic options (capex, M&A, buybacks), making sustained recovery more dependent on steady cash flow execution.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High operating profitability
Sustained gross, operating and EBITDA margins indicate durable pricing power and on‑resort spend capture across core resorts. These margins support internal reinvestment and distributions, and provide a structural cushion versus volume swings, underpinning long‑term cash generation and operational resilience.
Read all positive factors
Vail Resorts Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Revenue By Segment
Analyzes net revenue generated by each segment, offering a clear view of which areas drive the company's income and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Analyzes net revenue generated by each segment, offering a clear view of which areas drive the company's income and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyVail Resorts (MTN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.82B
Dividend Yield6.27%
Average Volume (3M)720.24K
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.1
Beta (1Y)0.60
Revenue Growth-0.83%
EPS Growth-10.37%
CountryUS
Employees7,600
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.12
Shares Outstanding35,633,053
10 Day Avg. Volume683,498
30 Day Avg. Volume720,239
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.83
Price to Book (P/B)13.15
Price to Sales (P/S)1.88
P/FCF Ratio17.46
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.57
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.59
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.38
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.99
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$149.00Price Target Upside10.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)4.73
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.85B
Vail Resorts Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vail Resorts, Inc., operating through its various subsidiary entities, oversees a portfolio of mountain resorts and urban ski areas located across the United States. The company's business activities are structured into three distinct segments: Mo...
How the Company Makes Money
Vail Resorts generates revenue primarily by monetizing access to its ski mountains and capturing on-resort guest spending tied to those visits.
1) Lift access products (tickets and passes): A major revenue stream comes from lift access, including...
Vail Resorts Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 08, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Sep 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call reflects a mixed outlook: significant negative near-term impacts from unprecedented adverse weather led to notable declines in visitation, revenue, and EBITDA, and prompted a downward update to guidance. Offsetting these headwinds, management highlighted strong operational execution (record guest scores, full staffing), meaningful outperformance versus the broader industry on lift ticket visitation, successful product experiments (Epic Friend, super-advanced tickets, young adult pass), substantial cost savings from the Resource Efficiency Transformation Plan, and a healthy balance sheet. Given the balance of material short-term financial hits and clear strategic/operational progress and mitigants, the overall sentiment is balanced.Positive Updates
Operational resilience and record guest experience
Achieved record guest experience scores with year-over-year increases at every resort in the Rockies despite severe weather. Maintained full seasonal staffing, strong seasonal employee return rates, improved employee engagement, and reduced employee injuries per labor hour.
Negative Updates
Historic weather disruption and severe snowfall shortfall
Rockies experienced the worst season on record for snowfall; snowfall finished ~55% below the 30-year average. Industry-wide visitation in the Rockies declined approximately 24%, an unprecedented severity versus prior non-COVID worst of 8% in 2012.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Operational resilience and record guest experience
Achieved record guest experience scores with year-over-year increases at every resort in the Rockies despite severe weather. Maintained full seasonal staffing, strong seasonal employee return rates, improved employee engagement, and reduced employee injuries per labor hour.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Vail updated fiscal 2026 guidance with resort reported EBITDA now expected at $735–$755 million and net income attributable to Vail Resorts at $128–$162 million (the EBITDA midpoint implies a ~12% year‑over‑year decline and is ~14% below the original FY26 guidance), and cash taxes of $75–$85 million. Management reiterated balance‑sheet and capital plans with liquidity of about $1.1 billion, net leverage ~3.5x LTM EBITDA, core capital spending of $215–$220 million (total capex $234–$239 million), a maintained quarterly dividend of $2.22/share and ~$45 million of buybacks YTD. The company expects to exceed its two‑year Resource Efficiency Transformation target (achieving $106 million of annualized efficiencies by year‑end, plus an incremental $30 million in FY28 and ~$45 million of incremental efficiencies year‑over‑year before $13 million of one‑time costs), and cited pass and lift‑ticket trends feeding the guidance (spring pass units down ~10% and dollars including tax down ~5%, pass days sold down ~8%, North America committed visitation down ~17%, lift‑ticket visitation down ~10%, with early strength in Australia: EPIC Australia units +26% and dollars +31%).Vail Resorts Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
70
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jul 2025 | Jul 2024 | Jul 2023 | Jul 2022 | Jul 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.92B | 2.96B | 2.89B | 2.89B | 2.53B | 1.91B |
| Gross Profit | 1.73B | 1.27B | 1.23B | 1.22B | 1.18B | 830.04M |
| EBITDA | 1.08B | 870.46M | 783.43M | 795.04M | 857.74M | 529.17M |
| Net Income | 230.55M | 280.00M | 231.10M | 265.82M | 347.92M | 127.85M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.60B | 5.78B | 5.70B | 5.95B | 6.32B | 6.25B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 384.74M | 440.29M | 322.83M | 562.98M | 1.11B | 1.24B |
| Total Debt | 3.18B | 3.44B | 3.04B | 3.03B | 2.94B | 3.08B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.96B | 5.02B | 4.66B | 4.61B | 4.47B | 4.42B |
| Stockholders Equity | 301.82M | 424.50M | 723.54M | 1.00B | 1.61B | 1.59B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 286.29M | 319.68M | 375.58M | 324.65M | 517.68M | 410.15M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 522.04M | 554.87M | 586.77M | 639.56M | 710.50M | 525.25M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -222.48M | -204.50M | -241.07M | -273.17M | -347.92M | -103.33M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -433.06M | -242.65M | -574.79M | -915.71M | -493.14M | 434.66M |
Vail Resorts Technical Analysis
Positive
135.37
Price Trends
127.73
Positive
131.27
Positive
136.97
Negative
Market Momentum
2.38
Negative
63.94
Neutral
75.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 135.37 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 128.17, above the 50-day MA of 127.73, and below the 200-day MA of 136.97, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MTN.
Vail Resorts Risk Analysis
Vail Resorts disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vail Resorts reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vail Resorts Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $6.53B | 3.67 | 79.86% | 0.84% | 3.45% | 272.47% | |
66 Neutral | $6.06B | 15.78 | 36.88% | 0.38% | 5.75% | -4.30% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | $4.82B | 21.09 | 51.86% | 6.27% | -0.83% | -10.37% | |
55 Neutral | $12.16B | 66.61 | 6.96% | ― | 3.39% | -67.21% | |
54 Neutral | $2.21B | 9.69 | -17.64% | ― | 11.54% | 313.70% | |
53 Neutral | $10.84B | 28.72 | -115.50% | 0.80% | 4.72% | -8.26% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MTN
Vail Resorts
135.37
-10.97
-7.50%
BYD
Boyd Gaming
87.87
14.61
19.95%
CHDN
Churchill Downs
86.92
-12.28
-12.38%
MLCO
Melco Resorts & Entertainment
5.70
-0.45
-7.32%
MGM
MGM Resorts
47.51
15.04
46.32%
WYNN
Wynn Resorts
104.48
20.55
24.49%
Vail Resorts Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Vail Resorts Warns of Weaker Results Amid Poor Snow
Negative
Apr 23, 2026
On April 23, 2026, Vail Resorts reported that for the North American ski season through April 19, 2026, skier visits declined 14.9% year over year, with lift revenue down 5.6%, ski school revenue down 12.0%, dining revenue down 11.7% and retail/re...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Vail Resorts Shares Updated Outlook at Investor Conference
Neutral
Mar 17, 2026
On March 17, 2026, Vail Resorts’ management team held meetings with investors as part of the company’s 2026 investors’ conference, underscoring ongoing engagement with the financial community. In connection with these meetings, t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.