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Vail Resorts
(NYSE:MTN)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$139.00
â–¼(-6.54% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/29/26
The score is held back primarily by weakening profitability and elevated leverage despite still-positive free cash flow. Technical indicators are neutral-to-soft, while valuation is balanced between a high dividend yield and a high P/E. The earnings call adds modest support via guidance for recovery, positive free cash flow, and improving leverage, but near-term risks (pass trends, margin pressure, and weather/demand variability) remain significant.
Positive Factors
Resilient revenue model
The advanced commitment model and diversified guest spending helped limit revenue damage during an unusually weak season. Season passes provide early demand visibility, while lift tickets and ancillary services create multiple ways to monetize visitors and support resilience across weather cycles.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and thin equity cushion
High leverage leaves Vail with less financial flexibility in a cyclical leisure business, particularly if visitation or cash generation weakens. The sharply reduced equity cushion increases balance-sheet sensitivity and may constrain capital allocation while debt remains elevated.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Resilient revenue model
The advanced commitment model and diversified guest spending helped limit revenue damage during an unusually weak season. Season passes provide early demand visibility, while lift tickets and ancillary services create multiple ways to monetize visitors and support resilience across weather cycles.
Read all positive factors
Vail Resorts Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Revenue By Segment
Analyzes net revenue generated by each segment, offering a clear view of which areas drive the company's income and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Analyzes net revenue generated by each segment, offering a clear view of which areas drive the company's income and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyVail Resorts (MTN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.03B
Dividend Yield6.29%
Average Volume (3M)876.66K
Price to Earnings (P/E)34.2
Beta (1Y)0.69
Revenue Growth-4.26%
EPS Growth-43.96%
CountryUS
Employees6,800
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.13
Shares Outstanding35,635,300
10 Day Avg. Volume1,296,472
30 Day Avg. Volume876,658
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.80
Price to Book (P/B)22.19
Price to Sales (P/S)1.88
P/FCF Ratio21.52
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.74
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.09
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.40
Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.27
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$144.45Price Target Upside-2.87% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)6.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.98B
Vail Resorts Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vail Resorts, Inc., operating through its various subsidiary entities, oversees a portfolio of mountain resorts and urban ski areas located across the United States. The company's business activities are structured into three distinct segments: Mo...
How the Company Makes Money
Vail Resorts primarily generates revenue by selling access to its mountain resorts and monetizing guest spending across a bundled set of resort services. A major revenue stream is lift access, sold through season pass products (notably the Epic Pa...
Vail Resorts Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 28, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call was cautiously optimistic. Management emphasized the resilience of the business, record guest satisfaction, strong employee engagement, savings progress, positive free cash flow, improving leverage and a meaningful expected visitation recovery. However, these positives were balanced by significant challenges, including historically poor weather, pass sales declines, visitation below prior expectations, margin pressure, elevated operating costs, depressed inbound international travel and uncertainty around the pace of recovery. The company appears confident in its strategy and long-term positioning, but near-term performance remains dependent on weather, consumer demand and successful conversion of guests between pass and lift-ticket products.Positive Updates
Resilient Fiscal 2026 Financial Performance
Despite historically challenging weather conditions across several key markets, total lift revenue decreased only 3.5% despite a 30% decline in skier visitation, supported by 4% growth in pass revenue. Fiscal 2026 Resort reported EBITDA was $746 million, in line with the midpoint of the range provided in June.
Negative Updates
Historically Challenging Weather Conditions
Fiscal 2026 was described as an exceptionally challenging weather year. Australia experienced cumulative snowfall more than 50% below the 10-year average, which pressured visitation and revenue during the fourth quarter.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Resilient Fiscal 2026 Financial Performance
Despite historically challenging weather conditions across several key markets, total lift revenue decreased only 3.5% despite a 30% decline in skier visitation, supported by 4% growth in pass revenue. Fiscal 2026 Resort reported EBITDA was $746 million, in line with the midpoint of the range provided in June.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For fiscal 2027, Vail Resorts is guiding to net income attributable to Vail Resorts of $158 million to $233 million and resort reported EBITDA of $805 million to $865 million, including approximately $14 million of onetime costs; visitation is expected to show a meaningful recovery but not fully return to fiscal 2025 levels in the U.S., with no overall improvement expected during the rest of the selling season and a meaningful portion of lower pass visitation recaptured through increased lift ticket visitation. The outlook includes labor and expense inflation of approximately 4%, approximately $20 million from normalization of incentive compensation, approximately $10 million of incremental marketing investments, $3 million associated with the renewal of the Grand Teton Lodging Company contract, $3 million of incremental resource efficiency transformation onetime costs, and approximately $25 million of incremental efficiencies; fiscal 2027 cash taxes are expected to be approximately $75 million to $85 million, total revenue is expected to increase approximately 3% versus fiscal 2026 expectations, lift revenue remains relatively flat, and implied resort EBITDA margin of 27.3%, excluding onetime costs, is expected to be approximately 200 basis points below the original fiscal 2026 outlook. The company expects positive free cash flow at the low end of the fiscal 2027 guidance range, leverage to decline from 3.9x to approximately 3.5x by year-end, and declared a quarterly dividend of $2.22 per share.Vail Resorts Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
24
Negative
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | Jul 2026 | Jul 2025 | Jul 2024 | Jul 2023 | Jul 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.84B | 2.96B | 2.89B | 2.89B | 2.53B |
| Gross Profit | 1.19B | 1.27B | 1.23B | 1.22B | 1.18B |
| EBITDA | 432.58M | 870.46M | 783.43M | 795.04M | 857.74M |
| Net Income | 147.53M | 280.00M | 231.10M | 265.82M | 347.92M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.53B | 5.78B | 5.70B | 5.95B | 6.32B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 268.46M | 440.29M | 322.83M | 562.98M | 1.11B |
| Total Debt | 3.42B | 3.44B | 3.04B | 3.03B | 2.94B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.97B | 5.02B | 4.66B | 4.61B | 4.47B |
| Stockholders Equity | 240.53M | 424.50M | 723.54M | 1.00B | 1.61B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 248.00M | 319.68M | 375.58M | 324.65M | 517.68M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 479.63M | 554.87M | 586.77M | 639.56M | 710.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -265.96M | -204.50M | -241.07M | -273.17M | -347.92M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -421.04M | -242.65M | -574.79M | -915.71M | -493.14M |
Vail Resorts Technical Analysis
Positive
148.72
Price Trends
143.60
Negative
139.54
Positive
135.24
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.74
Negative
52.14
Neutral
55.96
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 148.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 137.90, above the 50-day MA of 143.60, and above the 200-day MA of 135.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.74 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MTN.
Vail Resorts Risk Analysis
Vail Resorts disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vail Resorts reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vail Resorts Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $4.89B | 2.96 | 70.49% | 1.16% | 1.75% | 249.96% | |
69 Neutral | $5.30B | 13.00 | 36.57% | 0.58% | 5.73% | -0.56% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $1.59B | 7.00 | -17.37% | 3.75% | 6.01% | 338.84% | |
56 Neutral | $7.67B | 18.25 | 16.96% | 0.03% | 3.19% | -8.14% | |
56 Neutral | $7.81B | 17.36 | -174.87% | 1.32% | 6.36% | 21.32% | |
52 Neutral | $5.03B | 34.18 | 47.19% | 6.29% | -4.26% | -43.96% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MTN
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-3.57%
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WYNN
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Vail Resorts Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Vail Resorts Adds MGM CEO Bill Hornbuckle to Board
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 29, 2026, Vail Resorts’ board of directors appointed Bill Hornbuckle, CEO and President of MGM Resorts International, as a new director, effective August 3, 2026, expanding the board from nine to ten members. Hornbuckle joins as a no...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.