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Hilton Grand Vacations
(NYSE:HGV)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$36.00
▼(-19.98% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/30/26
The score is held back primarily by elevated leverage and a cautious near-term outlook following reduced EBITDA guidance and sales/VPG weakness. Technical signals also point to a weak trend. Offsetting these risks, the stock screens cheaply on earnings (low P/E) and the business shows improving TTM revenue, EBITDA margin, and free cash flow.
Positive Factors
Recurring profit base
A substantial share of segment profit comes from recurring club, resort and financing activities rather than new vacation ownership sales alone. This diversification can support earnings resilience through sales cycles and provides a durable foundation for cash generation and reinvestment.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Heavy debt increases HGV’s sensitivity to demand weakness, refinancing conditions and interest costs in a cyclical travel business. Elevated leverage can restrict financial flexibility, absorb a greater share of operating cash flow, and limit the company’s ability to fund growth during downturns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring profit base
A substantial share of segment profit comes from recurring club, resort and financing activities rather than new vacation ownership sales alone. This diversification can support earnings resilience through sales cycles and provides a durable foundation for cash generation and reinvestment.
Read all positive factors
Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.91B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.15M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.3
Beta (1Y)1.55
Revenue Growth18.79%
EPS Growth804.66%
CountryUS
Employees22,300
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryTravel Lodging
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.30
Shares Outstanding77,724,144
10 Day Avg. Volume1,176,413
30 Day Avg. Volume1,147,535
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.52
Price to Book (P/B)3.12
Price to Sales (P/S)0.80
P/FCF Ratio17.49
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.52
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.67
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.75
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.17
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$46.75Price Target Upside3.91% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)4.78
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.48B
Hilton Grand Vacations Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. develops, markets, sells, manages, and operates the resorts, timeshare plans, and ancillary reservation services under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand in the United States, Japan, and Europe. The company operates throu...
How the Company Makes Money
HGV’s business model is centered on selling vacation ownership interests and earning recurring fees for servicing and operating the resort network. Its primary revenue stream is vacation ownership sales: HGV markets and sells timeshare interests (...
Hilton Grand Vacations Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call was mixed but leaned cautious: HGV highlighted resilient recurring businesses, improving late-quarter sales trends, strong credit performance, membership growth and continued capital returns, but these positives were counterbalanced by an 11% contract sales decline, a 12% VPG decline, weaker-than-expected execution, near-term sales and marketing pressure, and a material reduction in full-year EBITDA guidance.Positive Updates
Resilient Recurring Revenue and Cash Flow Model
Management said the underlying business model, recurring revenue streams and cash flow generation remained resilient despite pressure on contract sales. Club and resort and financing businesses together represent well over half of segment profit.
Negative Updates
Contract Sales Missed Expectations
Third-quarter contract sales were $807 million, down 11% year over year and below the previously expected mid-single-digit decline. Management attributed the decline to sales execution challenges, particularly lower closing rates.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Resilient Recurring Revenue and Cash Flow Model
Management said the underlying business model, recurring revenue streams and cash flow generation remained resilient despite pressure on contract sales. Club and resort and financing businesses together represent well over half of segment profit.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
HGV reduced full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1,165 million to $1,180 million, expects tours to be in the positive low to mid-single digits, VPG to decline in the high single digits, and contract sales to be down in the mid-single digits; for the fourth quarter, it expects VPG to decline in the mid-single digits and sales to be down in the low to mid-single digits, with sales “in that kind of low to mid-single digits in line with what we saw in October.” The company expects full-year free-cash-flow conversion to remain in the lower half of its long-term target range of 55% to 65%, inventory spend of approximately $285 million this year and below $300 million next year, provision to be centered around the mid-teens going forward, potentially as low as 14% or as high as 18%, rental business performance in line with last year, resort and club “probably slightly a hair up” versus the prior year, and financing in line with previous expectations; its long-term algorithm calls for low to mid-single-digit tour flow growth with low to single-digit VPG growth, and the licensing fee rate is 5% at a normalized run rate starting January 1.Hilton Grand Vacations Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.16B | 5.05B | 4.98B | 3.98B | 3.83B | 2.33B |
| Gross Profit | 3.74B | 2.86B | 2.83B | 1.23B | 1.27B | 855.00M |
| EBITDA | 1.66B | 759.00M | 733.00M | 840.00M | 867.00M | 500.00M |
| Net Income | 417.00M | 81.00M | 47.00M | 313.00M | 352.00M | 176.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 11.80B | 11.54B | 11.44B | 8.69B | 8.00B | 8.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 227.00M | 571.00M | 328.00M | 589.00M | 223.00M | 432.00M |
| Total Debt | 7.88B | 7.35B | 7.02B | 4.59B | 3.85B | 4.33B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.34B | 10.10B | 9.55B | 6.57B | 5.85B | 6.02B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.31B | 1.29B | 1.75B | 2.12B | 2.15B | 1.99B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 482.00M | 230.00M | 183.00M | 237.00M | 650.00M | 150.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 516.00M | 300.00M | 309.00M | 312.00M | 747.00M | 168.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -221.00M | -146.00M | -1.57B | -158.00M | -97.00M | -1.63B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -323.00M | -338.00M | 1.16B | 183.00M | -782.00M | 1.64B |
Hilton Grand Vacations Technical Analysis
Positive
44.99
Price Trends
37.74
Positive
43.50
Negative
44.60
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.19
Negative
62.49
Neutral
56.13
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HGV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 44.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.49, above the 50-day MA of 37.74, and above the 200-day MA of 44.60, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HGV.
Hilton Grand Vacations Risk Analysis
Hilton Grand Vacations disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hilton Grand Vacations reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Hilton Grand Vacations Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $3.97B | -12.07 | -15.70% | 2.77% | 1.67% | -230.59% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
57 Neutral | $5.41B | 36.76 | 47.19% | 5.85% | -4.26% | -43.96% | |
57 Neutral | $7.69B | 17.08 | -174.87% | 1.34% | 6.36% | 21.32% | |
52 Neutral | $2.91B | 7.25 | 34.08% | ― | 18.79% | 804.66% | |
52 Neutral | $7.58B | 11.31 | 28.11% | 0.03% | 2.57% | 1487.04% | |
52 Neutral | $5.93B | -11.10 | -15.71% | ― | 3.08% | -128.00% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
HGV
Hilton Grand Vacations
38.44
-3.41
-8.15%
VAC
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
115.49
50.88
78.74%
MGM
MGM Resorts
29.96
-2.17
-6.75%
MTN
Vail Resorts
151.83
11.78
8.41%
WYNN
Wynn Resorts
74.66
-49.90
-40.06%
CZR
Caesars Entertainment
29.09
8.64
42.25%
Hilton Grand Vacations Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Hilton Grand Vacations Announces $200 Million Share Buyback
Positive
Oct 30, 2026
On October 30, 2026, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. entered into an uncollared accelerated share repurchase transaction with Deutsche Bank AG’s London Branch to buy back $200 million of its common stock under its existing board-authorized share...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Hilton Grand Vacations appoints new sales and marketing chief
Positive
Oct 29, 2026
On October 29, 2026, Hilton Grand Vacations announced that Executive Vice President and Chief Sales Marketing Officer Dustin Tonkin will depart the company effective April 1, 2027, under a separation agreement that largely mirrors his prior sever...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.