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Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
(NYSE:VAC)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$119.00
▲(6.78% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is lifted by strong earnings-call momentum (raised EBITDA and free-cash-flow guidance with strong contract sales/VPG trends) and a constructive technical uptrend (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). Offsetting this, financial performance remains the main drag due to recent losses and high leverage, while valuation is mixed (supportive dividend yield but negative P/E tied to losses).
Positive Factors
Contract Sales and VPG Growth
Strong contract sales and VPG growth indicate sustained customer demand and improving sales productivity. Higher transaction values can support revenue growth and profit generation as commercial initiatives scale.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Leverage remains high relative to operating earnings, limiting financial flexibility and increasing sensitivity to weaker travel demand or execution setbacks. Cash generation must remain strong to fund debt reduction.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Contract Sales and VPG Growth
Strong contract sales and VPG growth indicate sustained customer demand and improving sales productivity. Higher transaction values can support revenue growth and profit generation as commercial initiatives scale.
Read all positive factors
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.95B
Dividend Yield2.86%
Average Volume (3M)414.69K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.75
Revenue Growth1.67%
EPS Growth-230.59%
CountryUS
Employees21,100
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-9.57
Shares Outstanding34,395,320
10 Day Avg. Volume380,631
30 Day Avg. Volume414,691
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)1.01
Price to Sales (P/S)0.40
P/FCF Ratio-69.43
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$114.88Price Target Upside3.08% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)8.37
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.42B
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation is a prominent global leisure company specializing in the development, marketing, sale, and management of vacation ownership products and associated offerings. Its business operations are structured around ...
How the Company Makes Money
VAC primarily makes money through (1) selling vacation ownership products and (2) collecting recurring fees for managing resorts and serving owners/members. A major revenue stream is the sale of vacation ownership interests/points to consumers, wh...
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational momentum and meaningful financial progress: sharp contract sales and VPG growth, record monthly sales, improved development profit and sizable free cash flow improvement led management to raise EBITDA and cash flow guidance. The company launched multiple commercial initiatives (Tour Logistics, Premier Vacations, Inner Circle) that are already driving higher-quality tour flow and higher VPGs, with additional upside expected as programs scale. Remaining challenges include timing/reportability impacts to recognized revenue, a prudent increase in sales reserves, and elevated leverage (~4x) that management plans to reduce. Overall, the positives—clear execution, upgraded guidance, and large free cash flow gains—materially outweigh the manageable near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Contract Sales Growth
Contract sales increased 22% year-over-year to $545 million in Q2, with company guidance now expecting full-year contract sales growth of 18%–20% (implying 25%–29% growth in H2).
Negative Updates
Reportability Reduced Recognized Revenue and Profit
Revenue recognition timing (reportability) reduced development profit by an estimated $15 million in the quarter because contracts sold in the last 10 days of the quarter are not recognized while most sales costs are.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Contract Sales Growth
Contract sales increased 22% year-over-year to $545 million in Q2, with company guidance now expecting full-year contract sales growth of 18%–20% (implying 25%–29% growth in H2).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Marriott Vacations raised full‑year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $805–$830 million (a $50M increase) and now expects full‑year contract sales growth of 18%–20% (implying 25%–29% growth in H2); adjusted free cash flow guidance was increased to $410–$460 million (a $35M midpoint raise) with free‑cash‑flow conversion projected in the mid‑50% range. Management reiterated a plan to monetize $200 million of noncore assets by end‑2027 (including ~$50 million expected in H2, which are excluded from adjusted FCF guidance) and reported Q2/BTD financials that supported the raise: Q2 contract sales of $545M (+22% YoY), VPG $4,477 (+23%), Q2 adjusted EBITDA $215M, Q2 adjusted free cash flow $87M and $201M YTD (vs. $22M YTD 2025); balance‑sheet and operational metrics cited included $3.1B net corporate debt (~4x leverage, down from 4.2x), owner contract sales +41%, North America contract sales +27%, North American tours +3%, development profit $106M (+$14M) and a sales reserve of 13.4% of contract sales.Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
41
Neutral
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.71B | 5.03B | 4.97B | 4.73B | 4.66B | 3.89B |
| Gross Profit | 986.00M | 760.00M | 1.85B | 1.82B | 1.99B | 1.45B |
| EBITDA | -66.00M | 19.00M | 614.00M | 678.00M | 832.00M | 437.00M |
| Net Income | -334.00M | -308.00M | 218.00M | 254.00M | 391.00M | 49.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 9.48B | 9.76B | 9.81B | 9.68B | 9.64B | 9.61B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 211.00M | 733.00M | 197.00M | 248.00M | 524.00M | 342.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.45B | 5.75B | 5.22B | 5.14B | 5.03B | 4.49B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.42B | 7.76B | 7.37B | 7.30B | 7.14B | 6.63B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.06B | 1.99B | 2.44B | 2.38B | 2.50B | 2.98B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 99.00M | -29.00M | 148.00M | 114.00M | 457.00M | 296.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 144.00M | 28.00M | 205.00M | 232.00M | 522.00M | 343.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.00M | -70.00M | -115.00M | -112.00M | 16.00M | -213.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -101.00M | 241.00M | -132.00M | -401.00M | -486.00M | -317.00M |
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Technical Analysis
Neutral
111.44
Price Trends
104.41
Positive
90.68
Positive
74.29
Positive
Market Momentum
3.34
Positive
51.41
Neutral
38.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VAC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 111.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 113.21, above the 50-day MA of 104.41, and above the 200-day MA of 74.29, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 3.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VAC.
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Risk Analysis
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84 Outperform | $2.23B | 19.41 | 20.63% | 1.00% | 5.10% | 17.23% | |
72 Outperform | $3.50B | 20.39 | 14.96% | ― | 5.44% | 205.14% | |
66 Neutral | $3.95B | -11.65 | -15.70% | 3.23% | 1.67% | -230.59% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $5.30B | 33.40 | 49.64% | 6.09% | -4.29% | -43.57% | |
52 Neutral | $2.39B | -2.73 | -48.48% | ― | 6.14% | -1168.84% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
VAC
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
111.44
36.35
48.40%
MCRI
Monarch Casino & Resort
123.62
19.71
18.97%
PENN
PENN Entertainment
17.33
-2.85
-14.12%
MTN
Vail Resorts
144.61
-9.36
-6.08%
HGV
Hilton Grand Vacations
43.83
-3.91
-8.19%
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Marriott Vacations Raises 2026 Outlook on Strong Q2
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
Marriott Vacations Worldwide reported second-quarter 2026 results on August 6, 2026, highlighting a 22% year-over-year increase in contract sales to $545 million and a 23% rise in VPG, driven by larger average transactions and operational enhancem...
Executive/Board Changes
Marriott Vacations Appoints New CFO with Incentive Plan
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
On August 2, 2026, Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation entered into an employment agreement effective July 30, 2026 with Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer John Marino, setting his annual base salary at no less than $650,000...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Marriott Vacations Restructures Leadership, Executive Departs Role
Neutral
Jul 21, 2026
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation disclosed that, as part of an internal reorganization effective July 31, 2026, it will eliminate the role of Executive Vice President and Chief Brand and Digital Officer, resulting in the departure of Lori ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.