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Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC)
NYSE:VAC
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Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC) AI Stock Analysis

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VAC

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation

(NYSE:VAC)

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Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$110.00
▲(11.26% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is lifted by strong earnings-call momentum (raised EBITDA and free-cash-flow guidance with strong contract sales/VPG trends) and a constructive technical uptrend (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). Offsetting this, financial performance remains the main drag due to recent losses and high leverage, while valuation is mixed (supportive dividend yield but negative P/E tied to losses).
Positive Factors
Contract sales & VPG momentum
Sustained double-digit contract sales and higher VPG indicate stronger customer willingness to pay and improved unit economics. Over 2–6 months this supports higher recurring cash flow from financed sales and larger lifetime owner payments, strengthening long‑term revenue quality and scaling benefits across resorts.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Leverage near 4x leaves limited balance sheet flexibility and increases exposure to operating swings. Over several months, high net debt constrains ability to invest, pay dividends or absorb shocks, making sustained cash generation essential before management can materially de‑risk capital returns or pursue bigger buybacks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Contract sales & VPG momentum
Sustained double-digit contract sales and higher VPG indicate stronger customer willingness to pay and improved unit economics. Over 2–6 months this supports higher recurring cash flow from financed sales and larger lifetime owner payments, strengthening long‑term revenue quality and scaling benefits across resorts.
Read all positive factors

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation is a prominent global leisure company specializing in the development, marketing, sale, and management of vacation ownership products and associated offerings. Its business operations are structured around ...
How the Company Makes Money
VAC primarily makes money through (1) selling vacation ownership products and (2) collecting recurring fees for managing resorts and serving owners/members. A major revenue stream is the sale of vacation ownership interests/points to consumers, wh...

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational momentum and meaningful financial progress: sharp contract sales and VPG growth, record monthly sales, improved development profit and sizable free cash flow improvement led management to raise EBITDA and cash flow guidance. The company launched multiple commercial initiatives (Tour Logistics, Premier Vacations, Inner Circle) that are already driving higher-quality tour flow and higher VPGs, with additional upside expected as programs scale. Remaining challenges include timing/reportability impacts to recognized revenue, a prudent increase in sales reserves, and elevated leverage (~4x) that management plans to reduce. Overall, the positives—clear execution, upgraded guidance, and large free cash flow gains—materially outweigh the manageable near-term headwinds.
Positive Updates
Strong Contract Sales Growth
Contract sales increased 22% year-over-year to $545 million in Q2, with company guidance now expecting full-year contract sales growth of 18%–20% (implying 25%–29% growth in H2).
Negative Updates
Reportability Reduced Recognized Revenue and Profit
Revenue recognition timing (reportability) reduced development profit by an estimated $15 million in the quarter because contracts sold in the last 10 days of the quarter are not recognized while most sales costs are.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Negative
Strong Contract Sales Growth
Contract sales increased 22% year-over-year to $545 million in Q2, with company guidance now expecting full-year contract sales growth of 18%–20% (implying 25%–29% growth in H2).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Marriott Vacations raised full‑year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $805–$830 million (a $50M increase) and now expects full‑year contract sales growth of 18%–20% (implying 25%–29% growth in H2); adjusted free cash flow guidance was increased to $410–$460 million (a $35M midpoint raise) with free‑cash‑flow conversion projected in the mid‑50% range. Management reiterated a plan to monetize $200 million of noncore assets by end‑2027 (including ~$50 million expected in H2, which are excluded from adjusted FCF guidance) and reported Q2/BTD financials that supported the raise: Q2 contract sales of $545M (+22% YoY), VPG $4,477 (+23%), Q2 adjusted EBITDA $215M, Q2 adjusted free cash flow $87M and $201M YTD (vs. $22M YTD 2025); balance‑sheet and operational metrics cited included $3.1B net corporate debt (~4x leverage, down from 4.2x), owner contract sales +41%, North America contract sales +27%, North American tours +3%, development profit $106M (+$14M) and a sales reserve of 13.4% of contract sales.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financial statements show meaningful deterioration in profitability (losses in 2025 and TTM) and elevated leverage (historically ~2.0–2.9x debt-to-equity). Cash flow is a partial offset with TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow turning positive again, but overall fundamentals remain pressured versus 2022–2024.
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
41
Neutral
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.71B5.03B4.97B4.73B4.66B3.89B
Gross Profit1.33B760.00M1.85B1.82B1.99B1.45B
EBITDA-58.00M19.00M614.00M678.00M832.00M437.00M
Net Income-334.00M-308.00M218.00M254.00M391.00M49.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets9.48B9.76B9.81B9.68B9.64B9.61B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments211.00M733.00M197.00M248.00M524.00M342.00M
Total Debt5.45B5.75B5.22B5.14B5.03B4.49B
Total Liabilities7.42B7.76B7.37B7.30B7.14B6.63B
Stockholders Equity2.06B1.99B2.44B2.38B2.50B2.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow99.00M-29.00M148.00M114.00M457.00M296.00M
Operating Cash Flow144.00M28.00M205.00M232.00M522.00M343.00M
Investing Cash Flow1.00M-70.00M-115.00M-112.00M16.00M-213.00M
Financing Cash Flow-101.00M241.00M-132.00M-401.00M-486.00M-317.00M

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price98.87
Price Trends
50DMA
100.83
Positive
100DMA
86.91
Positive
200DMA
72.12
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
6.39
Negative
RSI
64.39
Neutral
STOCH
67.93
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VAC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 98.87 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 106.89, below the 50-day MA of 100.83, and above the 200-day MA of 72.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VAC.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Risk Analysis

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$2.22B19.4120.63%1.00%5.10%17.23%
66
Neutral
$4.16B-12.49-15.70%3.23%1.67%-230.59%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
56
Neutral
$5.28B33.8649.64%6.09%-4.29%-43.57%
55
Neutral
$3.57B20.8914.96%5.44%205.14%
52
Neutral
$2.52B-2.94-48.48%6.14%-1168.84%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
VAC
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
119.47
47.81
66.71%
MCRI
Monarch Casino & Resort
123.65
23.84
23.89%
PENN
PENN Entertainment
18.65
-0.03
-0.13%
MTN
Vail Resorts
146.60
1.81
1.25%
HGV
Hilton Grand Vacations
44.92
0.42
0.94%

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Marriott Vacations Raises 2026 Outlook on Strong Q2
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
Marriott Vacations Worldwide reported second-quarter 2026 results on August 6, 2026, highlighting a 22% year-over-year increase in contract sales to $545 million and a 23% rise in VPG, driven by larger average transactions and operational enhancem...
Executive/Board Changes
Marriott Vacations Appoints New CFO with Incentive Plan
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
On August 2, 2026, Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation entered into an employment agreement effective July 30, 2026 with Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer John Marino, setting his annual base salary at no less than $650,000...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Marriott Vacations Restructures Leadership, Executive Departs Role
Neutral
Jul 21, 2026
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation disclosed that, as part of an internal reorganization effective July 31, 2026, it will eliminate the role of Executive Vice President and Chief Brand and Digital Officer, resulting in the departure of Lori ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Marriott Vacations Shareholders Reaffirm Board and Governance Structure
Positive
May 18, 2026
At its Annual Meeting on May 15, 2026, Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation reported that approximately 87% of eligible shares were represented, and stockholders elected nine director nominees to the board, reaffirming the company’s exis...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 06, 2026