Vail Resorts (MTN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.49B
• Dividend Yield: 5.94%
• Average Volume (3M): 620.46K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.72
• Revenue Growth: 2.74%
• EPS Growth: 22.37%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,600
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
• EPS (TTM): -5.08
• Shares Outstanding: 37,152,405
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 738,387
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 620,457
• PEG Ratio: 0.00
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.46
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.70
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.22
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.79
• 1Y Price Target: $174.63
• Price Target Upside: 16.75% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $160.00 ▲(6.97% Upside)

Vail Resorts' overall stock score reflects strong revenue growth and strategic investments, but is tempered by operational inefficiencies and high leverage. The technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, while the valuation is supported by a reasonable P/E ratio and attractive dividend yield. Earnings call insights indicate stability with ongoing challenges in marketing and visitation.

Positive Factors

Resource Efficiency Transformation Plan

The Resource Efficiency Transformation Plan is set to significantly reduce costs, improving operational efficiency and profitability over the long term.

Epic Pass Growth

The growth in Epic Pass sales indicates strong customer loyalty and a sustainable revenue stream, enhancing long-term financial stability.

Strategic Capital Investments

Strategic capital investments in major resorts are expected to enhance guest experiences, driving future revenue growth and competitive positioning.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage increases financial risk and limits flexibility, potentially impacting long-term financial health and ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Decline in Pass Sales

A decline in pass sales suggests challenges in maintaining customer acquisition, which could affect future revenue and market share.

Operational Inefficiencies

Negative EBIT and EBITDA margins highlight operational inefficiencies, which could hinder profitability and require strategic adjustments to improve margins.

Vail Resorts Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) is a leading mountain resort operator in the United States, specializing in the management of ski resorts and related recreational activities. The company operates a diverse portfolio of resorts, including Vail, Beaver Creek, Breckenridge, and Park City, among others. In addition to skiing and snowboarding, Vail Resorts offers summer activities such as mountain biking and hiking, as well as a range of lodging, dining, and retail services to enhance the guest experience. The company also operates the Epic Pass, a season pass that grants access to multiple resorts, emphasizing its commitment to providing value and convenience to its customers.

How the Company Makes Money

Vail Resorts generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from lift ticket sales, season passes, and ancillary services. Lift ticket sales are a significant portion of the revenue, driven by daily visitors to the resorts during the ski season. The Epic Pass, which allows unlimited access to multiple resorts, has become a crucial revenue source, offering skiers and snowboarders an attractive alternative to purchasing individual lift tickets. Additionally, the company earns revenue from on-mountain dining, retail sales, lodging, and ski school services. Vail Resorts also benefits from strategic partnerships, such as collaborations with local businesses and tourism boards that enhance its marketing efforts and attract more visitors. Seasonal and year-round activities, such as mountain biking and hiking, further diversify its revenue streams and contribute to overall profitability.

Vail Resorts Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vail Resorts shows strong revenue growth and high gross profit margins, but faces challenges with operational efficiency and high leverage. The cash flow situation is weak, particularly in free cash flow generation. Overall, the company is profitable but needs to address its debt levels and improve operational margins.

Income Statement

Vail Resorts has shown strong revenue growth, particularly in the most recent year with a 19.3% increase. The gross profit margin is exceptionally high at 93.86%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 9.45%, suggesting potential areas for cost optimization. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, which is concerning and indicates operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.92, which poses a risk of financial leverage. However, the return on equity is strong at 65.96%, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is not provided, but the high debt levels suggest a need for careful financial management.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has decreased by 19.45%, which is a negative indicator for liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.33, showing a moderate conversion of income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.58, indicating some cash generation from profits, but there is room for improvement.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.96B	2.96B	2.89B	2.89B	2.53B	1.91B
Gross Profit	1.53B	2.78B	1.23B	1.22B	1.18B	830.04M
EBITDA	741.58M	870.46M	783.43M	831.66M	831.93M	533.05M
Net Income	280.00M	280.00M	230.41M	268.15M	347.92M	127.85M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.78B	5.78B	5.70B	5.95B	6.32B	6.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	440.29M	440.29M	322.83M	562.98M	1.11B	1.24B
Total Debt	3.44B	814.59M	3.04B	3.03B	2.94B	3.08B
Total Liabilities	5.02B	5.02B	4.66B	4.61B	4.47B	4.42B
Stockholders Equity	424.50M	424.50M	723.54M	1.00B	1.61B	1.59B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	319.68M	319.68M	375.58M	324.65M	517.68M	410.15M
Operating Cash Flow	554.87M	554.87M	586.77M	639.56M	710.50M	525.25M
Investing Cash Flow	-204.50M	-204.50M	-241.07M	-273.17M	-347.92M	-103.33M
Financing Cash Flow	-242.65M	-242.65M	-574.79M	-915.71M	-493.14M	434.66M

Vail Resorts Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 149.57
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 149.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 149.23, below the 50-day MA of 153.12, and below the 200-day MA of 156.42, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.91 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MTN.

Vail Resorts Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WYNN	68 Neutral	$13.77B	39.07	-86.94%	0.78%	-1.94%	-53.90%
HGV	66 Neutral	$3.86B	72.22	2.68%	―	13.01%	-59.35%
VAC	66 Neutral	$2.40B	10.42	10.43%	4.75%	7.70%	63.61%
MTN	64 Neutral	$5.49B	18.91	48.78%	5.94%	2.74%	22.37%
MGM	64 Neutral	$9.94B	19.10	18.14%	―	0.89%	-31.56%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

Vail Resorts Corporate Events

Vail Resorts Completes $500M Senior Notes Offering

On July 2, 2025, Vail Resorts completed a private placement offering of $500 million in 5.625% Senior Notes due 2030, guaranteed by certain domestic subsidiaries. This financial move is structured under an Indenture with U.S. Bank Trust Company as Trustee, and includes various covenants and redemption options, impacting the company’s financial strategy and obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTN) stock is a Buy with a $244.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vail Resorts stock, see the MTN Stock Forecast page.

Vail Resorts Increases Senior Notes Offering to $500M

On June 30, 2025, Vail Resorts announced the pricing of its senior notes offering, increasing the amount to $500 million from the initially planned $400 million. The proceeds from this offering will be used to repay borrowings under its revolving credit facility, fund the repurchase of $200 million of its outstanding shares, and address its 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026, reflecting strategic financial management aimed at strengthening its financial position.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTN) stock is a Buy with a $244.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vail Resorts stock, see the MTN Stock Forecast page.

Vail Resorts Announces $400M Senior Notes Offering

On June 30, 2025, Vail Resorts announced its intention to initiate a private offering of $400 million in senior notes due 2030. The proceeds from this offering are planned to be used to repay borrowings from its revolving credit facility, fund the repurchase of $200 million in outstanding shares completed in June 2025, and address a portion of its convertible senior notes due 2026. This move is part of the company’s financial strategy to manage its debt and optimize its capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTN) stock is a Buy with a $244.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vail Resorts stock, see the MTN Stock Forecast page.

Vail Resorts Announces CEO Transition with Rob Katz

Vail Resorts announced a leadership transition with Rob Katz returning as CEO, effective May 22, 2025, succeeding Kirsten Lynch who will remain in an advisory role until September 2025. The transition aims to continue the company’s strategic priorities and transformational initiatives, with Katz’s previous tenure as CEO marked by innovation and consistent performance. The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 guidance and reported consistent early season pass sales trends, indicating stability in its operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTN) stock is a Buy with a $250.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vail Resorts stock, see the MTN Stock Forecast page.